Pennsylvanians trust Trump more than Harris on fracking, Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll shows

Pennsylvanians trust former President Donald Trump would do a better job on fracking than Vice President Kamala Harris if he’s sent to the White House.

Trump leads Harris on fracking 49% to 41% among likely voters in the commonwealth, according to a newly released Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll conducted Sept. 11 through 16, following their debate last week in Philadelphia. In the overall poll, Harris holds a nearly 4-point lead in Pennsylvania.

Trump has used fracking as a battering ram against Harris in the fight for Pennsylvania’s crucial 19 electoral votes, slamming home the fact that Harris said in 2019 that she opposed hydraulic fracturing, the method of drilling horizontally through shale to tap pockets of natural gas. Pennsylvania is second only to Texas in U.S. shale gas production.

But, as Trump frequently proclaims, Harris now says she supports it.

In August, Trump asserted that the “war on fracking” would “demolish” jobs in Pennsylvania, saying of Harris and the Democrats, ”Look, if they get in, your state is screwed … you guys are screwed … but I will never let that happen.”

During the debate, Trump said, “Fracking? She’s been against it for 12 years.” And in a Trump ad that came out soon after, an announcer intones, “Harris will ban all fracking.”

Presidents can’t ban fracking on private land, where the vast majority of fracking occurs. This is not to say a president is without influence, having the power to ask Congress to tighten or loosen regulations, and sign bills supporting a position.

The New York Times declared Trump’s statements about Harris to be “misleading” in a fact check of the debate. Even though Harris once held the opposite view, “when she became President Biden’s running mate in 2020,” the Times wrote, “she distanced herself from that position, and now says she no longer supports a ban on fracking.” In fact, the Biden administration has issued almost 50% more permits to drill for oil and natural gas on federal land than did the Trump administration, according to E&E News.

In the poll, likely voters were responding to the question, “Regardless of how you might vote, tell me whether you trust Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to to do a better job on each of the following... .” Fracking was one of the issues.

Trump would be the choice on fracking for voters without a college degree (56% to 34%), and those living in small towns and rural areas (59% to 33%).

Harris, on the other hand, holds the advantage on fracking over Trump among young people aged 18 to 29 (55% to 32%), and those possessing college degrees or higher (53% to 38%).

Harris also has a significant lead over Trump on fracking in Philadelphia, 62% to 27% She’s ahead in the city’s suburbs as well, 48% to 45%.

In central Pennsylvania, however, the results are nearly the exact opposite of the Philadelphia findings, with likely voters supporting Trump, 67% to 24%.

This isn’t based on the influence of fracking in the region, but because the numbers reflect the political character of the area, a bastion of Republican support, according to David Hess, editor of Pennsylvania Environment Digest, and former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection.

“The poll is really showing overall voter trust,” said Dan Mallinson, professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg.

The preference for Trump on fracking dovetails with voters leaning toward him on the economy overall. The Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll also found that 51% of likely voters favored Trump on the economy compared to 47% who trusted Harris more.

“I think ‘fracking’ in voters’ minds is symbolic of the economy,” said Berwood Yost, director of the Center of Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College. “People definitely think Trump can do a better job than her there.”