Kamala Harris has a narrow lead in Pa., but voters trust Donald Trump more on economic issues, new poll finds

A deluge of polling has come out in the last several days looking to define what Pennsylvania voters — who will likely help determine the outcome of the 2024 election — think about Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump, and top issues.

The Monmouth University Poll, released Wednesday morning, shows similar findings to last week’s Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll, noting Harris’ slim lead over Trump in the crucial battleground state as well as voters’ focus on such issues as the economy, abortion, and immigration.

Harris is leading Trump 48% to 45% among definite or probable voters, within the margin of error, according to the poll, which surveyed 654 registered voters in Pennsylvania from Sept. 19 to Sept. 23. Wednesday’s Monmouth Poll did not survey respondents on their choice for the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race.

It’s a tight race in the state between two candidates who are vying for Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes and spending significant time and money. Monmouth’s poll further signifies which issues continue to be meaningful for Pennsylvania voters.

Here are three key takeaways from Monmouth University’s poll:

It’s more than obvious by now that Philadelphia has been the center of the political universe in this election, serving as the site for the much-anticipated ABC presidential debate and high-profile visits from both candidates.

With the region’s history as a Democratic stronghold, it’s not shocking that Harris has a combined lead of 24 points in Philadelphia and its four suburban counties, according to the poll.

But Harris’ support is approximately 8 points lower than what President Joe Biden received in 2020 in the Philly area on Election Day, while Trump’s polling is roughly on par with what he had in the 2020 election.

Last week’s Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll found that Harris had a resounding 63-point lead over Trump in Philadelphia specifically, and was performing significantly better than Biden did in May when he was still running for reelection.

In 2020, the suburbs helped push Biden over the necessary threshold to secure Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, despite a somewhat disappointing Democratic turnout in Philadelphia. In a close race such as this, both candidates will look to garner as much support as they can in the key battleground state.

Economic-related issues continue to be a top priority for voters in the swing state, and while more voters trust Trump on economic growth, Harris is not too far behind, according to Monmouth’s poll.

Inflation and the price of goods and services was deemed the first or second most important issue in the 2024 election by 62% of registered Pennsylvania voters, according to Monmouth’s poll. And 45% denoted economic growth as their first or second top issue.

Both Harris and Trump have heeded this trend in voters’ priorities with both candidates touting their economic proposals while attacking their opponent’s in rallies and advertisements. The uneven economic recovery in Pennsylvania post-pandemic could help Trump in the commonwealth.

As the candidates fight over voters’ attention on this crucial issue, 51% of Pennsylvania registered voters say they have either a great deal or some trust on Trump’s handling of economic growth. However, Harris is not far behind, with 48% of respondents noting they have a great deal or some trust for the vice president’s capabilities on the issue.

This reflects similar results found in last week’s Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll of Pennsylvania voters, where 51% of likely voters said they trust Trump more with the economy compared with 47% of voters who have more trust in Harris.

The top issues outlined by the Pennsylvania respondents to Monmouth’s poll are indicative of the candidates that respondents are voting for and showing that both Harris’ and Trump’s top priorities are resonating with their voter base.

For instance, 18% of voters denoted both inflation and economic growth as top issues for the 2024 election. Half of this group is currently supporting Trump, while 36% support Harris.

“Donald Trump does well on the dominant issue in this race. But inflation isn’t necessarily a concern for every voter. Kamala Harris has a particularly large advantage among those who do not prioritize inflation which offsets Trump’s support among voters who prioritize this issue,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, in a statement.

Among those who list abortion as a top priority, 87% choose Harris, whose stances on reproductive rights have become a focal point of her campaign, while 4% back Trump.

While reproductive rights has become a key issue of the Harris campaign, the Trump campaign has continuously championed its platform on immigration while attacking Harris’ positions. For respondents who have immigration as a top issue, 87% back Trump while 7% support Harris.

In the Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll, Harris is favored over Trump on abortion, while Trump has the lead on immigration.

“It’s not about a policy debate when it comes to abortion and immigration. These two issues really act as visible markers that signal which side you are on,” Murray said.