How different congressional maps would redistrict Pennsylvania

Incumbents drawn together. Pittsburgh divided. We analyzed a new batch of proposed maps for Pennsylvania congressional districts.

• By Jonathan Lai, Jonathan Tamari, Andrew Seidman, and Chris Brennan
• Published

Pennsylvania needs a new congressional map, but partisan gridlock has gotten in the way. With Gov. Tom Wolf and the Republican legislature unable to reach a deal on new districts that will shape power for the next decade, it’s up to state courts to decide.

Preparing for that likelihood, Pennsylvania’s Commonwealth Court asked groups in a redistricting lawsuit to submit proposals this week. The 13 maps submitted show how different people and interests want to divide Pennsylvania as it loses a congressional seat in the decennial redistricting.

»READ MORE: View interactive maps of all the proposals here

We’ve pored over the maps, with the help of a detailed data analysis conducted for The Inquirer by the nonpartisan Princeton Gerrymandering Project.

Here are some things we’ve found so far. First, an important note: Redistricting is about representation of voters and communities, and how to define communities is a complex task. Consider how contested even the boundaries of Philadelphia neighborhoods can be. So while our takeaways focus on the maps’ boundaries and their implications for electoral politics, the stakes are higher. It’s about the power that citizens have through representative government.

Which party does each map favor?

Experts often start by asking two questions to analyze a map: How many geographies, such as counties or towns, are split into multiple districts? And how compact are those districts?

A map that needlessly divides a county or town might be intended to dilute its voting power; same for a map with sprawling districts.

To evaluate a map’s partisan impact, one of the simplest methods is to look at how each proposed district would have voted in past elections.

Those results can then be used to measure which party each map favors.

Four such measures show that Wolf’s map, House Democrats’ map, and one of the Senate Democrats’ maps all favor Democrats. The House Democrats’ map is the most skewed, by some measures giving the party as much of an edge — or even greater — than the biggest Republican advantages in other maps.

The other maps favor Republicans to varying degrees. The one passed by the legislature, which Republican leaders proposed to the court as Wolf vetoed it, stands out as advantaging Republicans across the metrics.

Which incumbents are drawn together?

With 18 seats consolidating into 17, both parties have a chance to mess with opposing incumbents. In some cases they draw two members of the same party into one district, ensuring one will be sent packing. In others they draw a House member into a largely new district, forcing them to introduce themselves to new voters.

The two parties have vastly different ideas about which lawmakers to pair.

Democrats mostly want to pair Republican Reps. Dan Meuser and Fred Keller, whose neighboring districts span a wide swath in the northeast and center of the state. Another Democratic map puts Reps. Scott Perry and Lloyd Smucker in one district.

Those combinations would help Rep. Matt Cartwright, a Northeastern Pennsylvania Democrat who already faces a tough reelection fight and could otherwise see Meuser moved into his district. Some of the Democratic maps are carefully drawn to keep Meuser separate from Cartwright.

Republican maps push Meuser into Cartwright’s district, which already leans rightward. Facing an established Republican would only increase Cartwright’s challenge.

Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R., Pa.) goes even further. A map he submitted would draw Cartwright into the heavily conservative district held by Keller, one all but impossible for a Democrat to win.

Reschenthaler would also merge two suburban Democrats, Reps. Chrissy Houlahan of Chester County and Mary Gay Scanlon of Delaware County, into one district. Taken together, his changes would effectively cost Democrats two seats before a single vote was cast.

Wolf proposed a similar move that could, on paper, cost his own party. He and two other plans shift Democratic Rep. Madeleine Dean, of Montgomery County, into Scanlon’s district.

A Dean spokesperson said it's “unfortunate” that some plans would pit two of Pennsylvania's four congresswomen against one another, after they joined what was recently an all-male delegation, but if that map were enacted Dean would “move in a heartbeat to continue serving the community she was born and raised in — and proudly raised her own family in.”

Some plans also push Philadelphia Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle into the neighboring Bucks County district held by Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Boyle has said he plans to run in Philadelphia no matter what.

How the maps would divide Philly

The most pressing political question for maps in Philadelphia: Would Boyle, now seeking a fifth term, be pitted against state Sen. Sharif Street in a redrawn 2nd District?

Some of that speculation was prompted by Street’s work on draft maps and his anticipated pivot to a congressional campaign after exploring a run for U.S. Senate.

Maps proposed by Wolf and two others make few changes to Boyle’s Northeast Philly district.

But the Republican legislative leaders’ map carves out a section of Boyle’s current district, adding it to Dean’s district in Montgomery County. Former President Donald Trump won that area in 2020.

The maps also make changes to the 3rd District held by Rep. Dwight Evans, which was ranked by the Cook Political Report as the most Democratic in the country. Senate Democrats’ map would add suburbs just over the city’s northwest border to the 3rd District, while also expanding its reach to the city’s southwestern border.

A map drawn by Reschenthaler also pushes the 3rd District to the city’s southwestern border, while removing a large chunk of the city’s northwest, including Roxborough, Chestnut Hill, and Mount Airy.

What would the maps do to the Philly suburbs?

The Philadelphia suburbs helped Democrats win control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections.

Since then, the four districts that span the collar counties have been represented by three Democrats — Dean, Houlahan, and Scanlon — and one Republican, Fitzpatrick. The districts are largely organized by county: Fitzpatrick’s is based in Bucks, Dean’s in Montgomery, Houlahan’s in Chester, and Scanlon’s in Delaware.

Republicans want to protect Fitzpatrick, whose district voted for Biden even as it reelected the GOP congressman. Their proposals mostly keep his district intact, while Democrats propose adding more of Montgomery County and moving part of Lower Bucks into a Philadelphia-based district.

Things get more interesting for Houlahan, who Republicans see as the most vulnerable Democrat in the region. The GOP wants her district, which currently includes Reading in Berks County, to extend further north into more conservative parts of Berks. One of Reschenthaler’s plans would make the district even more competitive by splitting Chester County — removing some of the more liberal inner suburbs — and extending it north through Kutztown.

How the maps would change competitive Northeastern Pennsylvania districts

Northeastern Pennsylvania and the Lehigh Valley are home to two of the country’s most vulnerable Democrats, Cartwright and Susan Wild.

Democratic proposals largely leave Cartwright’s Scranton-area district with roughly the same Republican lean that he’s been able to overcome so far. But most Republican proposals nudge his district rightward by expanding into some rural turf.

The scenarios for Wild are more stable: The major proposals would leave her district pretty evenly balanced, as it is today, within reach for both parties.

Harrisburg and the fast-growing region around it

Democrats almost scored a major upset in 2018 when they came close to knocking off Rep. Scott Perry in the 10th District, which includes Harrisburg.

The fast-growing swath of south-central Pennsylvania includes all of Dauphin and parts of York and Cumberland Counties. Republicans want to make the district more conservative by reducing its footprint in Dauphin and Cumberland Counties, while expanding further south into York and adding parts of Adams County to the west.

Wolf appears to embrace at least part of that idea. His map would also encompass all of York, add parts of Adams, and cede Dauphin to the north. But he’d give his party a better shot of succeeding in the neighboring 11th District to the east, by adding Harrisburg and Hershey and reducing its share of York.

Other Democrats want to keep the party’s focus on the 10th. For example, House Democrats propose adding the city of Lancaster – which is currently a liberal outpost in the conservative 11th.

What the maps would do in Western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh

Some of the starkest differences between the Democratic and Republican plans center on Pittsburgh. And the differences could influence who wins the open suburban seat now held by Rep. Conor Lamb, who is running for Senate.

Democratic maps split the Steel City in half, spreading out Democratic voters enough to create one safely blue district and one that leans that way. That would improve Democrats’ chances of keeping two seats in the region, because the current map has one deep blue district that includes all of Pittsburgh, and one that’s right-leaning in the suburbs and exurbs.

Republicans take the opposite approach. They keep Pittsburgh intact, leaving one district as a Democratic lock. Lamb’s suburban seat, instead of creeping into the city, would expand away from Pittsburgh into surrounding conservative areas, pushing the district notably rightward. It wouldn’t be impossible for a Democrat to hold, but it would be significantly tougher.