Josh Shapiro trails other Democrats early on for the 2028 primary, according to new Emerson College poll

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, seen as a front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 2028, is polling behind some fellow Democrats and presidential hopefuls in Emerson College’s first post-election poll released Tuesday.

The popular swing state governor who has been working to build his national brand is polling at 3% in Emerson College’s nationwide poll of 1,000 registered voters. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is also polling at 3%, and both governors are polling four points behind California Gov. Gavin Newsom and one point behind Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Former first lady Michelle Obama and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) are behind Shapiro at 2%.

Thirty-seven percent of voters — the highest favorability of the candidates listed — want to see a redo of 2024, with Vice President Kamala Harris leading the ticket in 2028, according to the poll. The poll was conducted from Nov. 20 to Nov 22.

Both Republican and Democratic primary voters for 2028 were polled and given an open-ended question, prompting them to list their preferred candidate. Candidates who received at least two responses were included in the results. Both primaries remain highly unsettled, as 35% of Democratic voters and 51% of GOP voters are undecided, according to the poll. Vice President-elect Sen. JD Vance is polling at 30% among the listed Republican primary candidates.

Shapiro — who has long been rumored to have higher political aspirations — is unusually popular in Pennsylvania, but he’s still building his national profile, perhaps suggesting why he’s currently trailing other Democrats. Shapiro’s nationwide popularization was especially catalyzed after he was passed over to be Harris’ running mate for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, which some pundits credit as a contributing factor to Harris losing critical battleground Pennsylvania and the presidency.

Shapiro, 51, a Montgomery County native, often touts his ability to work with a divided legislature in Harrisburg, and has branded himself as a moderate who is able to reach across the aisle. And that energy has earned him the opportunity to stump for Democrats down the ballot, deliver a primetime address at the Democratic National Convention, and raise $9 million through October of this year, even when he’s not running for his own reelection.

Shapiro is up for gubernatorial reelection in 2026, which could determine what his future in presidential politics looks like and whether he will have the chance to push toward the front of a potentially crowded 2028 Democratic primary pool.

President-elect Donald Trump’s favorability rating has grown six points post-election, according to the Emerson College poll.

Trump is now at a favorability rating of 54% after winning Pennsylvania and the presidency and ushering in a red wave across the commonwealth. Though voters are split on their approval of his potential Cabinet selections, according to the poll.

“Trump’s favorability varies significantly by gender, race, and age,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Men view Trump most favorably at 61%, compared to 48% of women. White voters view Trump favorably at 59%, Hispanics at 53%, and Black voters at 28%.”

The president-elect’s favorability is strongest with voters in their 40s and 50s, Kimball said, while noting that Trump also made favorability gains among younger voters.

President Joe Biden, on the other hand, dropped to his lowest approval rating yet in the Emerson poll with 36%.