Josh Shapiro is getting VP hype for a commanding win in Pa. — against a weak opponent

Gov. Josh Shapiro has a track record of winning big in Pennsylvania.

As a candidate for attorney general, he was one of few Democrats to win statewide in 2016, and he got more votes than President Joe Biden in 2020. In 2022, he drove up Democratic margins from the Allegheny to the Schuylkill and became governor in a 14-percentage point win that outperformed Biden’s 2020 victory in all of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties.

That record has led some Democrats to hypothesize that, with him on the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris could stand a much better chance of bringing home must-win Pennsylvania.

And even some Republicans admit that having Shapiro as a vice presidential nominee could make the state harder to win.

“Of the people she could possibly pick, he would be the one that makes it the most challenging because that’s a name that people are familiar with,” said Bill Bretz, the GOP chair in Westmoreland County.

But as political pundits look to Shapiro’s landslide 2022 victory as a reason why he might become Harris’ running mate, those prognostications often overlook who he was up against: Far-right State Sen. Doug Mastriano (R., Franklin).

Shapiro cleared the Democratic field early, avoiding a gubernatorial primary, and then beat Mastriano by promising he’d shore up voting rights, reach across the aisle, and, after Roe v. Wade, was overturned that he’d protect abortion rights. He built a hearty coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and independents that other Democrats look to as a model for their own statewide races. He has built a reputation as a strategic and strong campaigner, never losing an election since he first ran for student government.

Shapiro has neither confirmed nor denied interest in being Harris’ vice presidential pick. When asked on Wednesday whether his team had received any outreach to vet him as a potential running mate, Shapiro referred questions to the Harris campaign. Shapiro is said to be one of several Democrats being vetted by Harris as a potential running mate.

Democrats know they need to win Pennsylvania if they want to win the White House, and Shapiro’s 2022 victory map — along with his statewide wins as attorney general in 2016 and 2020 — is impressive. But his most recent and biggest triumph can’t be separated from its important context: He was running against Mastriano, an underfunded, extreme candidate whom Republicans themselves tried to stop from winning the 2022 primary because they were wary that Shapiro would trounce him in the general election.

“It was almost an experiment of what happens when someone has a full campaign and a strong candidate, and the other side doesn’t campaign at all,” said Stephen Medvic, a government professor at Franklin and Marshall College.

Mastriano hardly campaigned in 2022. He wouldn’t talk to most media outlets, was not supported by major GOP donors, and spent only $7 million. Meanwhile, Shapiro broke spending and fundraising records, spending more than $73 million to secure the governor’s mansion.

Mastriano also came into the general election with a fanatical following and unpopular views: He began growing his grassroots base in 2020, leading efforts to overturn Pennsylvania’s election and speak out against COVID-19 shutdowns. He was on the U.S. Capitol grounds on Jan. 6, 2021, and holds extreme views on abortion — both of which were major issues in the 2022 election.

And the Republican establishment knew Mastriano would lose.

Sam DeMarco III, Allegheny County’s GOP chair, was behind last-minute attempts to coalesce around one Republican candidate in a crowded nine-person primary, knowing that Mastriano was a weak candidate. Internal GOP polling found at the time that Shapiro would beat Mastriano by a big margin.

“While Democrats are looking lovingly at Shapiro because he won by 14 points, the win wasn’t as impressive as it seems,” DeMarco said. “It wasn’t quite the electoral juggernaut that some of his supporters like to believe.”

With his eyes on the governorship for years before 2022, Shapiro was able to clear the field well in advance of the Democratic primary.

Shapiro brought in a large number of independent and Republican voters in 2022. He got about 280,000 more votes than fellow Democrat John Fetterman did in the U.S. Senate race, indicating many voters split their tickets.

His campaign was held up as a model for how other Democrats could reach out to voters in places where Trump has won.

In an interview with CNN days after his win, Shapiro said: “Look, we went everywhere. We set up in rural urban suburban communities. Engaged voters … no matter party label. Reached out to constituencies that, quite frankly, had been ignored for some time.”

Some of the margins Shapiro improved for Democrats were huge: He outran Biden by 10 or more points in more than half of the state’s 67 counties — many of them traditionally Republican areas — and got a larger vote share than the president in all of them.

Lisa Labarre, chair of the Democratic Party in Bradford County, said Shapiro was an “excellent campaigner” who was “organized and matter of fact and knew how to talk about the local issues.”

She recalled a visit to the county in 2022, when he packed a room with people from both parties. He went on to outperform Biden by 10 points.

“He’d be a very good choice for her,” Labarre said of Harris. “On the selfish side, I don’t want to lose him.”

While Biden’s decision to leave the race has been largely heralded by Democrats, his stepping down means Pennsylvania lost something of a hometown candidate on the ballot. Tom O’Brien, Democratic chair in Lancaster County, thinks Shapiro appeals to “moderate, middle class, working people,” and could fill that void.

O’Brien, who is also a delegate to the Democratic National Convention, said when Shapiro spoke on a party call Monday, he noted Biden’s ties to the state.

“He made a point to say Biden is a son of Pennsylvania and we need to respect that and honor that,” O’Brien said.

DeMarco, of the Allegheny County Republican Party, said Harris’ progressive views will hurt her among swing voters in Pennsylvania, but Shapiro’s popularity and name recognition could convince them to vote for her.

“I’m concerned it just might help them in turnout here in Pennsylvania,” DeMarco said.

Bretz, of Westmoreland County, also noted that while Shapiro would bring an advantage in Pennsylvania for the Democratic ticket, Republicans will still be running primarily against Harris and her record.

“That’s tempered with, ‘Ms. Harris has been in lockstep with Joe Biden for the last four years,’” he said.

And there’s also the important question of how much influence a running mate can have, even in an unprecedented election.

“Voters aren’t voting for the vice presidential candidate. They’re really looking at the top of the ticket,” Medvic said. “Having said that, this state has been won in the last two elections by tens of thousands of votes. — 40,000 in 2016 and 80,000 in 2020.

“If you are talking about tens of thousands of votes, a popular governor of a swing state could be able to convince enough swing voters to support the ticket.”