Would Josh Shapiro’s stances on Israel help or hurt Kamala Harris’ ticket?

Two days after Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, Gov. Josh Shapiro took the stage at a rally in Wynnewood, a Jewish stronghold in his home Montgomery County, and vowed to be a champion for Israel.

“This is not a moment to retreat from who we are, but to be proud of who we are,” Shapiro, the third Jewish governor in the commonwealth’s history, told the crowd of more than 1,000 after the attack, which killed roughly 1,200 people.

Shapiro’s status as a popular governor in a battleground state has put him high on the list of contenders to be Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate after President Joe Biden’s stunning withdrawal from the presidential race. Shapiro, if picked, would be only the second Jewish vice presidential nominee for a major party in history.

Whether Shapiro’s full-throated support of Israel would help or hurt a Democratic ticket presents a complex question.

The issue has deeply divided the Democratic Party as the death toll in Gaza has surpassed 39,000 in the months since Israel’s invasion in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack. Before Biden’s exit from the race, he had been consistently dogged by pro-Palestinian protesters at campaign appearances in Pennsylvania and around the country.

Shapiro’s strong pro-Israel stance could appeal to some swing voters and mitigate Republican efforts to make support for Israel a wedge issue this election, but it also could further alienate progressives who are hoping Harris charts a new path from Biden on the conflict. Some observers feel Shapiro has been wrongfully singled out in a crowded field of pro-Israel candidates — solely because he is Jewish.

Here’s some background on Shapiro’s record with Israel and the Palestinians, his delicate balancing act since the Oct. 7 attacks, and how it all might factor into the VP decision in the coming days.

When protesters chanted outside an Israeli falafel shop in Center City in December, Shapiro staged a news conference outside the restaurant the next morning, condemning the protesters as antisemitic.

During the pro-Palestinian campus protests this spring, Shapiro went public with calls to forcibly end the encampment at the University of Pennsylvania (even though he already knew Penn and the city had plans to disband it anyway).

Shapiro has resisted calls for a cease-fire, leading to a boycott of a Ramadan event he hosted in April. He also implemented a revised code of conduct banning “scandalous or disgraceful” behavior for state employees, which raised alarm among free-speech advocates and Muslim American groups, who fear the policy could be used to silence criticism of Israel.

“We have to query whether or not we would tolerate this, if this were people dressed up in KKK outfits or KKK regalia, making comments about people who are African American in our communities,” Shapiro said on CNN in April about student protests, a comment that his critics have resurfaced as his name entered the VP conversation.

Cease-fire activists argue Shapiro has conflated criticism of Israel with antisemitism, and they say he has failed to rebuke anti-Muslim and anti-Arab bias incidents with the same force as those against Jews and Israelis.

During a pro-Palestinian rally in Harrisburg on Oct. 13, a man brandished a gun at demonstrators and taunted them with insults and anti-Arab rhetoric, according to Omar Mussa, an organizer with the Pennsylvania Palestine Network, who was there.

Police later arrested the gunman at his home. But, in contrast to Shapiro’s swift response to the falafel shop protest months later, Mussa said, the governor did not put out a statement decrying the incident until two days later, which came from a spokesperson and only appeared in a news article.

“… There was absolutely nothing from him. Zero,” Mussa said. “He shrugged it off, and then he refused to even say the word Palestine at all.”

In recent months, Shapiro has more swiftly acknowledged attacks on pro-Palestinian activists that made headlines. When a pro-Palestinian Muslim cafe owner in Philadelphia reported that someone broke into and vandalized her business with pro-Israel stickers, Shapiro quickly jumped to her defense.

Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder said Shapiro “has been forceful in speaking out against hate in whatever form — including antisemitism and Islamophobia — and showing that it has no place here in Pennsylvania.”

But Mussa said Shapiro has lost trust with the pro-Palestinian community over the last nine months, especially as the governor’s views on a cease-fire in Gaza have not changed.

“We’ve turned our back on this guy, and we’re not supporting him next time around,” Mussa said. “We need to protect our communities from the governor who is supposed to protect us, but who is making it more difficult for us.”

Still, Shapiro has been a well-liked governor in Pennsylvania, and the April Franklin and Marshall Poll showed he still has support among young people. Among almost 200 Pennsylvanians between the ages of 18 and 34, 47% rated his job performance as excellent or good, according to Berwood Yost, who runs the poll. That was a little below Shapiro’s overall approval rating of 54%, but Yost attributed this to 13% of the age bracket saying they didn’t know, which is common among younger voters.

Shapiro’s position on Israel has come under a microscope since being identified as a prospective running mate for Harris.

Maury Litwack, an advocate for Jewish voting efforts and CEO of Teach Coalition, the Orthodox Union’s Jewish education advocacy group, called the scrutiny of Shapiro “a very disturbing trend.”

He took particular issue with a piece published this week by the New Republic titled “The One Vice Presidential Pick Who Could Ruin Democratic Unity.” The piece referred to the fact that Shapiro is an observant Jew, in addition to his support for Israel.

“I think the fact that he’s been singled out so early, and that there’s been reference that he’s Jewish, is also a problem,” said Litwack, who is based in New York. “Being pro-Israel is a majority position in America,” he added.

Shapiro put himself in the spotlight as a supporter of Israel denouncing campus protests, but the other vice presidential contenders don’t seem to have significantly different stances.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper signed a bill into law that defines antisemitism as including “the denial of Jewish people’s right to self-determination and applying double standards to Israel’s actions.” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear voiced support for Israel immediately after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, and when he was asked about Israel’s retaliation a few days after the attack, he said: “They have been attacked. They have the right to defend themselves.” The following month, various groups wrote an open letter condemning him for not speaking out about violence in Gaza.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D., Ariz.) clapped when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to pro-Palestinian protesters as “Iran’s useful idiots” during his address to Congress on Wednesday.

Despite his strong support for the country, Shapiro has criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a “failed leader,” according to the Forward, a Jewish magazine. Shapiro said that Netanyahu took the country in a “very dangerous direction” by embracing right-wing politics before Oct. 7 and that “under his leadership, the government took the eye off the security risk to Israel.”

Bonder, Shapiro’s spokesperson, said in a statement that the governor has been clear that Netanyahu continues “to steer Israel down a dangerous and destructive path that makes peace harder to achieve, and that this war has tragically ended too many innocent lives in Gaza,” but that Hamas must return hostages in order to obtain peace.

It’s unclear how much weight the war in Gaza will actually hold at the ballot box. A national New York Times-Siena College poll taken last month found that likely voters care most about the economy (23%) and immigration (17%) when deciding on their vote this November, while just 2% said the same about “The Middle East/Israel/Palestinians.”

But in a tight race the issue still has the potential to determine the election, especially in battleground states like Michigan, where Biden’s support for Israel drew significant opposition during the primary.

“Shapiro has a moderate pragmatic reputation that makes him popular in Pennsylvania,” said Robert Speel, associate professor of political science at Penn State Behrend, in Erie. “But a lot of young Democrats are not happy with what’s been happening in the Middle East, and if you had a VP candidate who was solidly behind those pro-Israeli policies, that could be detrimental.”

Annie Wu, a political social media strategist, said in a post on X that as a Pennsylvanian who voted for Shapiro, she thinks choosing him as a running mate “would be detrimental for all of that good will and momentum for Harris thus far.” Wu ran social media for Democratic Sen. John Fetterman’s 2022 campaign and later worked for U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.).

“Young folks are incredibly aware of the unique moment and momentum occurring,” she said. “This excitement to vote FOR a ticket rather against the alternative is something many have not experienced. But we are also warning that the continuation of this energy cannot be guaranteed.”

The pressure from cease-fire activists isn’t going away. A new campaign launched Thursday in Pennsylvania called No Ceasefire No Vote, which is collecting pledges from voters who will withhold their vote for Harris unless there is a permanent cease-fire in Gaza or she commits to a total arms embargo on Israel.

Harris was the first Biden administration official to publicly call for a cease-fire — a temporary one — during a March speech, a sign she might take a tougher line with Netanyahu than Biden has. She has said she supports Israel’s asserted right to defend itself against Hamas, but she has also said she understands the emotion behind student protests.

Harris missed Netanyahu’s address to Congress on Wednesday while she was campaigning in Indiana, which conservatives were quick to point out. But Sen. JD Vance, former President Donald Trump’s running mate, also did not attend Netanyahu’s address, citing campaigning.

Harris met with Netanyahu on Thursday in Washington.

Staff writer Sarah Nicell contributed to this article.