Josh Shapiro’s rise wasn’t accidental. Just ask those who helped him get here — or felt betrayed along the way

With a critical election looming, Democratic leaders worried that their aging incumbent was no longer in a position to win and were debating dumping him from the ticket.

Josh Shapiro stood ready to seize the opportunity.

The race? A 2011 campaign for the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners. Party leaders blindsided their longtime standard-bearer, former U.S. Rep. Joe Hoeffel, and threw their support behind Shapiro, a then-37-year-old state lawmaker and former Hoeffel chief of staff who had not publicly expressed interest in the job.

Hoeffel saw his former protégé's entry into the race as a betrayal. But Marcel Groen, then chair of the county’s Democratic Party, defended his decision in an interview with The Inquirer at the time.

Of Shapiro — who would go on to secure a commanding win and flip the board to Democratic control for the first time in history — Groen said:

“Watch, he’s going to be president one day.”

Now, 13 years later, Shapiro finds himself under consideration for a role a heartbeat away from that job and is, once again, poised to potentially benefit from a last-minute reshuffling of a Democratic ticket.

Those who’ve tracked his steady rise — from state representative, to Montgomery County commissioner, to state attorney general, to governor — say it’s not by chance that Shapiro is a front-runner on Vice President Kamala Harris’ shortlist of potential running mates.

He’s proven himself as a skilled communicator and a competent leader with a record of accomplishments that appeal to voters in both parties, such as improving his county’s bond rating and bringing attention to the Catholic Church’s coverup of child sex abuse. He’s demonstrated an ability to win big in a critical swing state — earning more votes than even the presidential candidates in Pennsylvania in 2016 and 2020.

But driving Shapiro’s success over his two-decade political career is an ambition fed by a sharp political acumen, an uncanny knack for positioning himself to seize a moment, and a laser-like focus on not just what’s good for Pennsylvania but what’s good for his own career — even if it occasionally comes at the expense of former allies and friends who say he turned against them to serve his own interests.

“I recognize that at this moment, in probably every moment in my life, folks are judging me from the outside. And that’s fine,” Shapiro said on Tuesday. “It’s part of the business. I’m most comfortable with every decision I made that it’s always been about service.”

Though Shapiro hasn’t publicly said he wants to become vice president, leaders of his own state party are openly campaigning for him to be Harris’ running mate as she takes on former President Donald Trump.

And he’s shown no signs of waving them off.

» READ MORE: Could Josh Shapiro become the Democrats’ pick for vice president?

Already one of the youngest chiefs of staff on Capitol Hill, Shapiro decided to move home to Abington in 2004 and run for an open state House seat representing his hometown in a district that skewed overwhelmingly Republican. He joined a long list of Democrats looking to flip the seat.

The party planned interviews with each potential candidate to select its nominee — an effort to avoid a messy primary. But after meeting with Shapiro, said Jean Corrigan, who was part of that vetting effort and later worked for Shapiro: “That was it. We just stopped the interviews after him.”

Shapiro’s charisma dazzled even some of his competitors.

“I’ve never seen a person who was so destined to be who he was,” said Mike O’Connor, a former Abington commissioner who also vied to run that year.

He showed his adeptness at campaigning by knocking on more than 10,000 doors with a personable pitch.

“Josh’s number-one gift is his memory, his ability to remember where he met someone, their name, their job, their family, and make them feel special,” said Joe Corrigan, a Democratic strategist who volunteered on Shapiro’s state House race in high school.

He ultimately won a long-shot victory over Republican candidate Jon D. Fox, who had held the seat for seven years, besting him by 10 points. Shapiro outraised him, too — an early sign of his prodigious fundraising ability.

Once elected, Shapiro rapidly climbed the ranks. He was a primary driver of across-the-aisle dealmaking to oust then-House Speaker John M. Perzel and elevate Republican Dennis O’Brien to the position. Shapiro won a plum prize for his efforts: an appointment to the newly created role of deputy speaker.

“I just recognized that he had extraordinary leadership skills from the get-go,” O’Brien told The Inquirer in 2022. “He didn’t have to spend a decade understanding [how the legislature works].”

The political brand Shapiro forged in his early legislative career — as a charismatic campaigner, a lawmaker who forges bipartisan relationships, and a politician who stakes out positions popular with constituents — has remained remarkably consistent throughout each of the posts he’s held since.

“He’s a strategist. He’s always thinking,” said former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter. “I tease him all the time: ‘Josh has been trying to figure out how to be governor since about fifth grade.’”

Occasionally, though, Shapiro’s political maneuvering has rankled people in both parties. While running for governor in 2022, he took the unusual step of endorsing a candidate in the competitive Democratic primary for lieutenant governor — effectively elevating his hand-picked No. 2, then a little-known 32-year-old state representative. Another Democrat in the race claimed at the time that Shapiro had urged him to drop out, calling that effort “offensive.”

About the same time, Shapiro’s campaign intervened in the crowded Republican gubernatorial primary, funding TV ads that promoted Doug Mastriano, whom GOP leaders saw as a weak general-election candidate.

As he’s amassed political clout, few in his party are willing to criticize him publicly.

Several Democrats who spoke to The Inquirer in recent days were unwilling to attach their names to critiques of Shapiro for fear of it affecting their political careers.

One insider said a tweet by Erin McClelland — the Democratic nominee for state treasurer in November’s election — suggesting that Shapiro might “undermine” Harris expressed what many others would say only in private.

“He’s very effective at keeping things in control,” the insider said.

His supporters, though, push back against the characterization of Shapiro as a Machiavellian tactician and note that he’s simply successful; he’s never lost an election.

Leslie Anne Miller, a Democratic fundraiser and longtime ally, credits Shapiro’s record for insulating him against attacks from naysayers.

“He’s created his own safety net,” she said. “... They couldn’t say he was so busy figuring out where to go next that he gave lip service to Montgomery County, or he was just an AG,” Miller said. “He distinguished himself in each position.”

And yet, at least some in his party say Shapiro’s rise has left them feeling burned. Former Pennsylvania House Speaker Bill DeWeese, who lost his seat in 2012 amid a corruption scandal that sent him to prison, said before that downfall he considered himself one of Shapiro’s mentors.

As a freshman state lawmaker, Shapiro often turned to him for guidance on how to maneuver in the statehouse, DeWeese said. He created the position of deputy speaker for Shapiro to show his gratitude for negotiating the deal with O’Brien. The two Democrats grew so close that DeWeese even bestowed Shapiro with a nickname: “Scout.”

When the state Attorney General’s Office opened an investigation in 2009 into DeWeese’s use of state money to further his campaigns, he turned to Shapiro for advice on how to navigate the crisis. They met multiple times in DeWeese’s Harrisburg apartment, alongside a former Republican attorney general and a former Republican inspector general.

“I thought he was young, indefatigable, and on the upswing of fame,” DeWeese said.

But within a few months, the former speaker said, he felt blindsided and betrayed.

Shapiro — without so much as a warning to his former ally — arranged a one-man news conference and became one of the earliest lawmakers to call for DeWeese’s resignation. He referred to the speaker as a “symbol of a broken system” and staked his position on the side of taxpayers and good government.

DeWeese said in a recent interview that he was stunned at the time by Shapiro’s remarks.

“I would never want him in a foxhole with me, and I don’t think the vice president and presidential nominee would want Josh as her wingman,” said DeWeese, adding that he’d like U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly as Harris’ running mate but will support whomever Harris picks.

But what DeWeese views as disloyalty, others credited as Shapiro reading the political mood of the moment and making a calculated decision to cut ties that could damage his future prospects. After all, they note, DeWeese was the one who ended up in prison.

Hoeffel, the former congressman and Montgomery County commissioner booted from the 2011 Democratic ticket in favor of Shapiro, said he, too, left elected office feeling burned.

“You don’t want to turn your back on him,” he told The Inquirer of Shapiro in 2017. “Loyalty is not his strong suit.”

Speaking recently, Hoeffel said he stood by those remarks but praised Shapiro’s subsequent successes.

“I don’t take back anything I said about him,” Hoeffel said. “But all of that has receded in importance as time has gone on. … He’s a very smart, hard-working, talented politician and would be up to the job” of vice president.

Others recalled instances in which they assumed they’d have Shapiro’s support, only to be left disappointed. Former U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz had hoped, given their long friendship and work together in Montgomery County, that she would have his endorsement in the four-member 2014 Democratic primary for governor.

Ten days before the election, Shapiro backed Tom Wolf, instead. Wolf later backed Shapiro as his successor, two years before Shapiro even announced his run for governor.

And though Schwartz said she harbors no ill will and thinks Shapiro would be a good running mate for Harris, she was hurt by his decision at the time.

“It was a tough moment,” Schwartz said. “I thought we had a good relationship.”

For his own part, Shapiro said this week that the decisions he’s made throughout his career have not been about personal ambition, but about serving Pennsylvanians.

“It’s always been about trying to help other people and continue to look out for my family every step of the way,” he said.

In his first year and seven months as governor — and six years as attorney general — Shapiro has capitalized on big public moments, becoming the face of them and often striking a chord of unity with most Pennsylvanians.

While attorney general, Shapiro was a consistent foil to Trump, joining several state attorneys general to oppose Trump’s travel ban and defending Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results against attacks and lawsuits. In 2021, Shapiro announced an opioid settlement with pharmaceutical distributors that resulted in a $1 billion payout for Pennsylvania.

As governor, he brought a region together around the rebuilding of I-95 — while also producing footage ready-made for a campaign ad of Shapiro hovering in a helicopter over the collapsed highway. And he largely won praise calling for the resignation of the University of Pennsylvania president over her comments on antisemitism. He gave a poignant remembrance of the firefighter, Corey Comperatore, killed at Trump’s rally in Butler in mid-July.

» READ MORE: Gov. Josh Shapiro’s latest spotlight is his most important yet after Trump assassination attempt

Taken together, it’s made him the most popular elected official in the state in most polls, winning over Republicans and even some Trump voters.

“He’s a white-shoe lawyer from Montgomery County,” said a Republican consultant who has worked on Pennsylvania campaigns, adding that Shapiro has built a track record with voters who might not have much in common with him, even though he’s a mainstream Democrat. “They don’t despise him,” he said.

Behind the scenes, he’s worked carefully to make the most of those moments. A staunch supporter of Israel and Pennsylvania’s third Jewish governor, Shapiro had already been outspoken against antisemitism — and Islamophobia — on college campuses, when pro-Palestinian encampments went up at Penn this year.

He waited to call for disbanding protesters until he knew that a plan to do so was already underway, The Inquirer previously reported. It made him look fully in control of the situation.

» READ MORE: Would Josh Shapiro’s stances on Israel help or hurt Kamala Harris’ ticket?

There’s little question Shapiro likes being the man behind the podium.

“I’ve taken steps that actually a lot of people at the time would have said, ‘that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense,’” Shapiro said Tuesday, referencing his run for county commissioner instead of Congress and attorney general instead of U.S. Senate.

“I wanted to be an executive. I wanted to serve my community,” Shapiro said. “... I’ve always tried to be true to myself and my commitment to public service, something that my faith calls me to do, my upbringing has called me to do.”

An open question in Pennsylvania political circles is how someone as ambitious as Shapiro would fare in the No. 2 position.

“The No. 1 concern with him — he is not gonna be fine off to the side,” a Democratic insider said.

This insider recalled that when President Joe Biden visited the I-95 bridge collapse in Philadelphia, it was Shapiro at center stage, taking the president around. “He’s never going to be No. 2. He never wants to be No. 2.”

U.S. Rep. Madeleine Dean (D., Pa.), who inherited Shapiro’s seat in the statehouse and has remained a good friend, said she’s spoken with him recently and his “spirit has been positive,” about the vice presidential rumors.

“We’ve been talking this past year about what’s at stake in Pennsylvania, what’s at stake in our region for women and girls, our values, our freedoms. He reiterated, ‘I’m being prayerful, I’m thoughtful.’”

Last week, a Harris endorsement event with labor leaders in Philadelphia turned into an impromptu pep rally for Shapiro, with speakers endorsing the governor to become Harris’ running mate.

Shapiro stood by with an embarrassed but flattered smile.

Asked whether the attention made him uncomfortable, he packed a campaign stump speech into a 30-second answer:

”Listen ... I am proud of the work that I do. I’m proud of all that we’ve accomplished. … I’m proud of the fact that I’m the only governor in the entire country with a divided legislature yet we passed historic investment in public education, in public safety, in economic development. We’re moving the commonwealth forward. I’m proud of that work. I’m grateful that folks take note of that.”