The Pa. Senate race is tight as Oz closes on Fetterman

Pennsylvania’s Senate race is getting very, very close.

Democrat John Fetterman’s early lead has steadily shrunk, according to multiple public polls, and the latest surveys suggest the race is a toss-up between him and Republican Mehmet Oz.

A string of polls from a variety of sources — including Emerson College, Fox News, Franklin & Marshall College, Muhlenberg College — all show narrow leads for Fetterman of between 2 and 5 percentage points. In each case, that’s within the poll’s margin of error, meaning that Oz could even have a slight edge.

In August, an average of polls from Real Clear Politics showed Fetterman, the lieutenant governor, leading by nearly 9 percentage points. Now that average is down to about 4.

While exact figures are difficult to gauge, the polls, taken together, all point in a similar direction: a contest that’s close enough that either candidate could win.

The narrowing margins reflect a combination of factors. Republicans have bombarded the airwaves in recent weeks attacking Fetterman. It’s the first time the Democrat has faced such a sustained barrage. Oz, the celebrity surgeon making his first run for public office, appears to have consolidated support among Republicans, even if some GOP voters aren’t that excited by him.

And it’s still Pennsylvania. Both parties had long predicted the race would get close, because it’s one of the most competitive states in the country, and it’s a race with huge stakes: The winner could decide control of the Senate.

Here’s a look at some of the latest numbers, and what the underlying factors tell us about the contest with just over a month to go.

Republicans have come home.

For months, Oz struggled with Republican support, especially after a brutal primary in which his opponents blasted him on TV as a Hollywood “Republican in Name Only” who couldn’t be trusted to uphold conservative values. Nearly 70% of GOP primary voters chose someone else.

But it appears that Republican voters have come around, whether because they’ve decided they like Oz well enough, or just because they can’t stand the idea of Sen. Fetterman.

In a July Fox News poll, Oz had support from only 73% of GOP voters. In their poll that concluded Monday, it’s 83% — close to the 87% Fetterman claimed among Democrats.

Fetterman appeared to engender more excitement among his supporters: 61% of his voters said they’re enthusiastic about him, compared to 38% of Oz’s supporters. But a vote is a vote, and 26% of Oz voters said they’re motivated by their dislike of the alternative.

Republicans argue their attacks on Fetterman on crime are having an impact, and that a popular figure who has never faced sustained political scrutiny is starting to show cracks. Democrats dispute that analysis, arguing money is a big reason the race is tightening.

Oz and his GOP allies outspent Fetterman and fellow Democrats on the air in September, $20.1 million to $16.5 million, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising. Fetterman’s camp is hoping the national party helps even things up.

After abortion rocketed to the forefront of the national debate, Democrats have argued women, and suburban women in particular, will be a key factor in helping them defy historical trends in midterm elections.

The Fox poll shows some evidence of that. Fetterman led among suburban women by 53% to 33% in that survey. That’s down, however, from the 46-percentage point gap that Fox saw in July.

Overall, Fetterman leads in the suburbs 47% to 41%, this poll found.

» READ MORE: ‘Women are the reason we can win,’ John Fetterman says at packed abortion-rights rally in Montco

Oz’s level of support now appears fairly similar to that of GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, according to most of the recent polls.

That adds evidence to the idea that his gains have come from fellow Republicans, but not necessarily swing voters or Democrats deserting Fetterman. Oz and Mastriano are even running similarly across urban, suburban, and rural voters surveyed by Fox.

It’s why some Democrats argue the crime attacks running repeatedly on TV are more about rallying GOP voters back to Oz (by making Fetterman seem unacceptable) than turning around moderates.

So why is Democrat Josh Shapiro so far ahead in the governor’s race while Fetterman has only a slight edge at best? The polls indicate that Fetterman isn’t matching Shapiro’s level of support — including in rural areas, where Fetterman had argued he could make a dent where other Democrats had failed.

Shapiro’s strong poll numbers could be a red flag, suggesting that Fetterman isn’t winning some voters who should be open to voting Democratic.

But Fetterman allies point to the big differences between the two races. Shapiro, unlike the Senate nominee, has faced barely any resistance. Mastriano until now has run a nearly closed campaign with no television ads and little effort to reach swing voters. Shapiro has basically had the field to himself.

The fact that he is winning a larger percentage of the vote, Democrats argue, shows that there are still Democratic votes out there for Fetterman to gain, and grow his lead.

As Fetterman and Oz scrap to sway the tight race, each can point to some factors weighing in their favor.

Democrats are taking solace in the idea that a lot more voters like their candidate.

Fetterman was seen favorably by 49%, including 34% who saw him strongly favorably. Some 34% saw him negatively, Fox found. That’s a net positive of 15 percentage points.

Oz had a minus-20 net favorability. Only 35% saw him favorably, and 55% viewed him unfavorably — including 41% strongly unfavorably.

That means Oz will have to persuade a fair number of voters who don’t like him to support him anyway.

(Both Fox and Emerson, however, found that a shrinking number of voters cared about Oz’s longtime residency in New Jersey. A smaller but growing number said they’re concerned about Fetterman’s health).

Republicans argue momentum favors Oz, and that the more voters hear about Fetterman, the closer the race is getting.

It’s Pennsylvania, so history says there’s a good chance it stays tight to the finish.

The Fox News poll surveyed 1,008 registered voters in Pennsylvania between Sept. 22 and 26. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.