Josh Shapiro has more support and a stronger public image than Doug Mastriano, a new poll found

Democrat Josh Shapiro has more likely support and a far better public image than Republican Doug Mastriano as the two compete in Pennsylvania’s crucial governor’s race, according to a new poll released Friday.

And while Mastriano has a fervent grassroots following, his approach has also turned off a significant number of voters, including a small but potentially meaningful number of Republicans, the survey found.

Some 45% of the registered voters surveyed by Monmouth University said they will definitely not support Mastriano. That includes 13% of Republicans who said they won’t support their party’s nominee. Only 28% of Pennsylvania voters definitively ruled out Shapiro, the poll found.

Mastriano, a state senator who in many ways has styled himself in the combative mold of former President Donald Trump, is a leading election denier and has almost entirely limited his campaign to events with people who support him and hard-right media outlets, with little attempt to expand his appeal.

» READ MORE: How Josh Shapiro is trying to turn out Black voters in Philly

Overall, more than half of the respondents said they’ll definitely (33%) or probably (21%) vote for Shapiro, the Pennsylvania attorney general. Around one-third said they’ll definitely (21%) or probably (15%) vote for Mastriano, of Franklin County.

“Mastriano’s core partisan support is weaker than Shapiro’s right now, but we would expect most of that to come home in November. However, having one in 10 GOP voters eliminate their nominee from contention at this stage makes it a much harder climb for the Republican against a fairly popular Democrat,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

» READ MORE: Mastriano’s security bubble insulates him from prying eyes and dissenting views

Shapiro was seen favorably by 55% of voters, while 33% saw him unfavorably. Mastriano received a net negative rating of 36% favorable against 48% unfavorable.

The poll, of course, is just one survey, though its findings are largely in line with other independent public polls. Still, recent elections have seen several significant errors when it comes to gauging support for some Republican candidates, and there are many weeks to go that could shift the race.

» READ MORE: A deep divide: How Doug Mastriano and Josh Shapiro differ on abortion access

As abortion has become a central issue in the governor’s race, the poll also found that 51% believed Pennsylvania’s current laws, which allow abortion up to 24 weeks of pregnancy, are “about right.” Just 15% said such laws aren’t strict enough, and 19% said they’re too strict.

Mastriano has said he supports banning abortion at about six weeks with no exceptions, and with a Republican-held legislature, could be in position to sign new restrictions if he is elected governor. Shapiro has said he would veto any attempts to impose new limits on abortion.

The poll surveyed 605 registered Pennsylvania voters from Sept. 8 to 12 by telephone. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points. The surveyed voters had participated in at least one general election since 2016 or had registered since the 2020 election.