Cook Political Report moves Pa. Senate race between Bob Casey and Dave McCormick to ‘toss up’

Pennsylvania’s tight Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick is now a toss up, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

The influential election publication, which has forecast major U.S. political races since 1984, announced Monday it was shifting the Pennsylvania Senate race to “toss up” from “lean Democrat,” a sign McCormick continues to inch closer to defeating the three-term incumbent.

“While public polling in the Keystone State still shows Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points,” wrote Cook’s Jessica Taylor.

In a recent poll by The Inquirer, The New York Times, and Siena College, McCormick was trailing Casey by just 4 percentage points among likely Pennsylvania voters. In a similar poll conducted in the middle of September, Casey led McCormick 49% to 40%.

Outside spending groups trying to influence the election have given McCormick financial edge. Super PACs and other groups spent $108.3 million to promote McCormick or attack Casey through September, while Casey benefited from $65 million in outside spending, The Inquirer previously reported.

It’s the second Pennsylvania race Cook has shifted to a “toss up” in recent days. On Friday, the publication shifted a congressional race between Republican incumbent Scott Perry — who backed Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election results — and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson to “toss up” from “lean Republican.”

“While the political environment should still favor Perry, his unique vulnerabilities, coupled with Democrats’ spending advantage, moves this race from Lean Republican to Toss Up,” wrote Cook’s Erin Covey.