National groups are pouring millions into Pa. to try to sway state legislative races in the home stretch

Pennsylvania airwaves have for months been blanketed with political messaging for the state’s high-profile U.S. Senate and governor races.

But below the radar of those top-of-the-ticket contests, another battle is simmering, and it’s drawing some big money from national political organizations in the final weeks before the Nov. 8 election.

Pennsylvania’s state legislative races, which are often overlooked by major donors and can be determined by just a few hundred votes, may see late investments, particularly by left-leaning groups who cite the importance of state legislatures to the outcome of future elections and the preservation of voting rights.

For example, the States Project, a D.C.-based organization that trains and funds Democratic candidates and legislative caucuses, plans to pour $60 million into five battleground states, including Pennsylvania. The group has directly tied its investment to a forthcoming Supreme Court case that could grant state legislatures sweeping latitude to control federal elections.

“We have two cycles until the 2024 [presidential] election,” said Simone Leiro, a spokesperson for the group, “and who holds power in Pennsylvania will determine whether our democracy is defended or not.”

The States Project has not said how much it intends to spend in Pennsylvania or where, but its announcement is welcome news for Democrats, who have been slightly outspent by Republicans this year on legislative races.

» READ MORE: Democrats trying to flip the Pa. House were cautiously optimistic. The abortion decision changed the game.

They see the 2022 cycle as their best chance in years to win a majority in at least one chamber of the General Assembly, which has been controlled by the GOP for more than a decade.

Nov. 8 will be the first general election since Pennsylvania adopted new state House and Senate maps after its most recent redistricting, which takes place every 10 years and is based on population shifts. Independent analysts consider the maps to be more evenly split than the old ones, which favored Republicans.

Democrats are also hopeful that strength at the top of the ticket could translate to down-ballot wins. Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee for governor, has long maintained a lead in the polls over Republican Doug Mastriano, who has struggled to raise money and expand his far-right base.

But taking control of a chamber is still something of a long shot for legislative Democrats. In the Senate, districts were largely seen as preserving incumbents, so it’s considered solidly Republican. In the House, Democrats would need to net 12 seats to win control and change the status quo in Harrisburg.

The party that holds the White House often loses ground in midterm elections, and while polls shifted in favor of Democrats following the Supreme Court’s June overturning of Roe v. Wade, some races have since tightened or swung back in favor of the GOP.

» READ MORE: Supreme Court’s abortion ruling puts spotlight on Pa. governor and state legislative races

Still, Republicans are telling donors that the States Project and other national, Democratic-aligned groups could outspend them.

Mason Di Palma, a spokesperson for the Republican State Leadership Committee, which donates to state legislative candidates and caucuses, said in a statement that “national liberal groups have just begun their barrage of spending to try to bail out Pennsylvania Democrats who can’t defend their toxic records.”

Di Palma added: “We remain committed to investing what it takes to fight back and hold our majorities.”

The RSLC, which also funds statewide races for lieutenant governor and secretary of state, has itself spent nearly $2 million on state legislative races in Pennsylvania this year.

Some prominent national Democrats are targeting their resources elsewhere. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which cuts checks directly to state legislative caucuses and spent $4 million in Pennsylvania in 2020, has spent less than $600,000 in Pennsylvania thus far and is largely focused on holding onto its majorities in states like Nevada, Maine, and Colorado.

The group is also targeting several “vulnerable” GOP majorities, or places where Democrats would need just a few seats to take control: Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

“While these maps are fairer, the Pennsylvania GOP still has an entrenched advantage because of last decade’s Republican gerrymandering,” Heather Williams, executive director of the DLCC, said in a statement.

Democrats’ hopes in the state hinge in large part on suburban districts that saw favorable redistricting. For example, Chester County’s 26th House district — which has been represented by Republican incumbent Tim Hennessey for 30 years — now includes parts of Phoenixville, a liberal-leaning enclave. Democratic President Joe Biden won the district in 2020 with 56% of the vote.

It’s so far one of the most expensive House races in the state, according to Ad Impact, a media tracking firm. And all the TV advertising dollars — $669,000 and counting — have been spent by Democrats backing challenger Paul Friel, a school board president who is trying for a second time to unseat Hennessey.

In 2020, Friel and House Democrats spent nearly $350,000 on cable television ads. Hennessey didn’t run any commercials, but his campaign spent about $150,000 in the final few weeks on other forms of outreach, campaign-finance records show. He was reelected with about 53% of the ballots cast, a margin of about 2,500 votes.

This year, Friel and House Democrats have together spent more than $425,000 on television ads alone. And they got more help — a group called Pennsylvania Fund for Change has kicked in nearly $250,000 worth of TV ads. One features a nurse-practitioner attacking Hennessey and saying his reelection could threaten abortion access in Pennsylvania.

The group is targeting eight state House races and in 2020 spent more than $7 million in Pennsylvania, almost all of it in the last two months of the campaign.

As of mid-September, the group had raised more than $2.1 million this year, according to its most recent campaign-finance filing. Most of it was contributed by an opaque, pro-Democratic group with a North Carolina address.