Pa. Democrats kept their state House majority. Now the work begins for 2024.
Both parties will now begin trying to make the case to voters for the 2024 election to maintain their power in the General Assembly — all of which may be overshadowed by federal races.
Pennsylvania Democrats successfully defended their narrow House majority for the second time in four months in a Delaware County special election Tuesday.
But the rest of the year looks rocky.
With just a one-seat majority, Democrats will need support from every member of their caucus to pass their policy priorities. In a recent vote, for example, Democrats had to win the votes of two Republicans to get an LGBTQ antidiscrimination bill through the House, because one Democrat — Rep. Frank Burns (D., Cambria) — did not support it.
And many of their legislative goals face an uphill battle in the Senate, where Republicans still hold a majority.
But Democratic leaders still hope to continue the work they’ve started after taking control of the House for the first time in 12 years, and to give Democrats a boost in next year’s election to expand their majority, said House Speaker Joanna McClinton (D., Philadelphia).
“In just two weeks operating in the legislature, we were able to pass legislation that’s been held up for decades,” McClinton said Wednesday. “By the time we get to 2024, we’ll have continuously sent great legislation that helps working people to the state Senate and hopefully gets to Gov. [Josh] Shapiro’s desk.”
House Republicans will continue to refocus the chamber on “issues that people care about,” such as job creation, and hope to regain the majority next year, said House Minority Leader Bryan Cutler (R., Lancaster).
However, it will be hard for state lawmakers from either party to gain attention amid the 2024 presidential election, in which Pennsylvania is a key battleground state, said Berwood Yost, executive director of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll.
“It’s really difficult for state legislative candidates to get their message out when they’re competing against what will surely be hundreds of millions of dollars in the presidential and Senate races,” Yost said, noting that big interest in the election will still bring high turnout for down-ballot legislative races.
What matters most heading into the 2024 election? The state of the economy at that time, Yost said.
“If economic concerns are going to be a big issue, they would typically drive turnout for the opposing party,” Yost added. “If that becomes the issue in 2024, then I think there’s a good chance that gives Republicans an advantage [down ballot].”
Democrats will likely need to defend their majority earlier than next year. Reps. John Galloway (D., Bucks) and Sara Innamorato (D., Allegheny) both won their primary races for other offices Tuesday, according to unofficial returns, and if they win in November, they would have to resign their state House seats by the start of 2024. Other resignations could also create vacancies in the chamber — and could potentially shake up the makeup of the House, given the razor-thin Democratic majority.
“We can expect the balance to be close and elections to matter, but it really depends where they’re happening,” Yost said. For example, Innamorato’s district in Pittsburgh reelected her in 2022 with 63% of the vote and the seat would be likely to remain safely Democratic. Galloway ran unopposed in the 2022 general election, and his district is also considered heavily Democratic.
In the Delaware County race on Tuesday, Democrat Heather Boyd defeated Republican Katie Ford to replace former State Rep. Mike Zabel, a Democrat who resigned in March amid sexual harassment allegations.
Voters in Montour County and parts of Northumberland County also went to the polls for a special election Tuesday, but that vacant House seat remained in Republican hands.
After those new representatives take office, Democrats will again lead the chamber, 102-101. Republicans maintain a strong majority in the 50-member state Senate, splitting control of the two chambers. The state General Assembly is responsible for setting the state’s election laws, passing an annual budget, and allocating school funding, among other things — all of which the House and Senate must agree on and get approval for from the state’s Democratic governor.
Shapiro put himself on the line in recent weeks, raising $500,000 to help House Democrats maintain their one-seat majority in the Upper Darby race that topped $1 million in Democratic spending, a Shapiro spokesperson said.
That big spend — and getting President Joe Biden to endorse winner Boyd — was a sign of weakness for Democrats, Cutler said.
“That should’ve been a slam dunk for them” in a majority-Democratic district, Cutler said. “Obviously, they were worried.”
But McClinton contended that Republican extremists have driven voters to the Democratic Party.
“When you show people who you are and what your values are, they’re able to make a decision. Voters in Pennsylvania, they’ve rejected Republicans three times,” McClinton added. “I’m very confident going into 2024 to continue on our gains and show them the outcome of us in the majority, all of the bad things we blocked … in the defense and in the offense.”
State legislative leaders said they will now turn to budget negotiations in order to meet the June 30 deadline to approve a spending plan.