Pennsylvania Senate race headed to recount as Casey trails McCormick by less than half a point

Pennsylvania’s nationally watched U.S. Senate race is headed to a recount after Sen. Bob Casey did not waive an automatic recount, the Pennsylvania Department of State announced Wednesday.

The Associated Press called the race last week for Republican Dave McCormick, who narrowly leads Casey, a three-term Democrat, by less than 0.5%, the threshold for triggering an automatic recount.

This will be the eighth time the state’s automatic recount law has been triggered since it was established in 2004 and the fourth time a recount has actually occurred. The Department of State estimated it would cost more than $1 million in state dollars.

Casey trails McCormick by nearly 30,000 votes, a margin wide enough that a recount would be unlikely to change the outcome of the race. However, the Department of State said Wednesday, roughly 80,000 ballots statewide have not yet been counted, though many of those may be rejected.

If McCormick’s lead holds following the recount, it will be the end of an era of Pennsylvania politics. Casey, the son of a governor, had won six statewide elections by significant margins. His Senate career spanned four presidencies, from George W. Bush through Joe Biden, a fellow Scranton native.

Casey had until noon Wednesday to waive a recount but did not exercise that option, so a recount will proceed. His campaign has insisted the senator still has a narrow path to victory, releasing daily statements reiterating that vote counting continues.

“My priority has always been standing up for the people of Pennsylvania. Across our commonwealth, close to 7 million people cast their votes in a free and fair election,” Casey said Tuesday morning. “Our county election officials will finish counting those votes, just like they do in every election. The American democratic process was born in Pennsylvania, and that process will play out.”

For his part, McCormick has projected confidence that his lead will hold.

“I don’t care who voted for me and didn’t vote for me,” McCormick said Friday in a victory speech. “Today, I turn the page. I am focused on serving every single Pennsylvanian.”

Counties are required to start the recount process by Nov. 20 at the latest. They must complete their recounts by Nov. 26.

Recounts often result in the final tallies of votes changing slightly for each candidate. But those corrections can go in either direction and usually affect only an extremely small fraction of votes. It is exceedingly rare for a recount to change the ultimate outcome of a statewide race, especially one divided by around 30,000 votes.

Gov. Josh Shapiro, the state’s top Democrat, declined to comment on the recount, deferring to the Department of State.

McCormick’s campaign said that a recount will be a waste of taxpayer dollars.

“Senator-Elect McCormick’s lead is insurmountable, which the AP made clear in calling the race. A recount will be a waste of time and taxpayer money, but it is Senator Casey’s prerogative,” McCormick spokesperson Elizabeth Gregory said in a statement. “Senator-Elect McCormick knows what it’s like to lose an election and is sure Senator Casey will eventually reach the right conclusion.”

Remarkably, this will be the second recount McCormick is involved in — in just his second competitive election. During Pennsylvania’s 2022 Senate race, McCormick fell short to Mehmet Oz in the GOP primary by fewer than 1,000 votes following a recount. That recount cost just over $1 million, according to the Department of State, but the margin at the time the recount was called was far smaller than the margin is between McCormick and Casey.

While Casey held a lead in polls for much of the campaign, the race tightened in the final days, and McCormick was leading as votes were counted in the days after the election. But his advantage shrank and fluctuated over time as some larger counties processed their provisional ballots, and as of Wednesday it was within the 0.5% threshold.

After Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) initially withheld an invitation, McCormick is attending orientation for incoming senators this week.

Counties will finish tallying ballots before beginning the recount process. According to the Department of State, that includes 60,366 provisional ballots and 20,155 mail and absentee ballots. Many of those ballots may not be counted as local boards of election determine their validity and voters’ eligibility.

Casey’s campaign issued a statement Wednesday criticizing McCormick and Republicans for pursuing court challenges that could result in the exclusion of some provisional ballots. The campaign argued McCormick’s continued litigation over the election proves he believes it isn’t over.

Last week, the McCormick campaign filed two lawsuits in Philadelphia seeking permission to challenge provisional ballots in groups rather than individually and segregate some provisional ballots. The campaign ultimately dropped the emergency injunction request in one case and a judge rejected it in the other.

“David McCormick and his allies are trying to disenfranchise Pennsylvania voters with litigation designed to throw out large tranches of votes that they’ve admitted in legal filings could impact the outcome of the election,” said Casey’s campaign manager, Tiernan Donohue.

The Republican National Committee has also indicated plans to challenge thousands of provisional ballots. In a Bucks County Board of Elections meeting, the party indicated plans to challenge the local board’s decision to count undated ballots and provisional ballots cast by voters whose mail ballots were rejected.

Casey’s insistence on staying in the race has prompted calls of hypocrisy from some on the right who have pointed out that he called on then-President Donald Trump to concede to Joe Biden in 2020.

The right-wing Fair Election Project released an ad Tuesday calling on Casey to step aside, using clips of the senator’s comments from 2020. Trump, who won the 2024 election, has yet to accept his 2020 defeat.

Casey, however, has not made false claims of election fraud, as Trump did. He has also leaned on the fact that several outlets that call races have continued to say his race is too close to call, even as the Associated Press declared a winner.

Staff writer Gillian McGoldrick contributed to this article.