The six trends that could decide Pa.

by Staff Reports

Anton Klusener/ Staff illustration/ AP/ Getty Images

1. Voter allegiances could keep shifting

The suburbs have gotten more Democratic. Rural areas and pockets of inner cities have moved toward Republicans.

Whoever prevails in Pennsylvania this year may do so by putting together a patchwork of support we haven’t seen before.

1. Voter allegiances could keep shifting

The suburbs have gotten more Democratic. Rural areas and pockets of inner cities have moved toward Republicans.

Whoever prevails in Pennsylvania this year may do so by putting together a patchwork of support we haven’t seen before.

2. Democrats will be looking for growth in the suburbs

The once predominantly rural outer suburbs have seen the most dramatic Democratic vote growth since 2016.

But Republicans still have an edge in majority-white suburbs statewide, and a strong performance by Trump could blunt Harris’ growth.

2. Democrats will be looking for growth in the suburbs

The once predominantly rural outer suburbs have seen the most dramatic Democratic vote growth since 2016.

But Republicans still have an edge in majority-white suburbs statewide, and a strong performance by Trump could blunt Harris’ growth.

3. Democrats could lose more ground in working-class Philly

In 2020, Democrats lost the most ground in working-class communities where education levels were lowest and poverty rates were highest. Will that continue?

Trump has made a push to lose by fewer votes in Philly than he did four years ago.

3. Democrats could lose more ground in working-class Philly

In 2020, Democrats lost the most ground in working-class communities where education levels were lowest and poverty rates were highest. Will that continue?

Trump has made a push to lose by fewer votes in Philly than he did four years ago.

4. Rural areas are likely to remain key for Trump

Geographically speaking, the widest swaths of Pennsylvania are still Trump country.

These areas have become even more red since 2016, and Trump may look to grow there more this year. But will it be enough?

4. Rural areas are likely to remain key for Trump

Geographically speaking, the widest swaths of Pennsylvania are still Trump country.

These areas have become even more red since 2016, and Trump may look to grow there more this year. But will it be enough?

5. Trump wants to make inroads with Latino voters in cities

Winning over Pennsylvania’s Latino population could prove pivotal for Trump.

If he can harness the growth he saw with the bloc in 2020 and build on it, he could improve his vote totals in these traditionally Democratic strongholds.

5. Trump wants to make inroads with Latino voters in cities

Winning over Pennsylvania’s Latino population could prove pivotal for Trump.

If he can harness the growth he saw with the bloc in 2020 and build on it, he could improve his vote totals in these traditionally Democratic strongholds.

6. Former manufacturing towns will remain unpredictable

Many of Pennsylvania’s once prosperous coal and steel towns have flip-flopped over the last three election cycles, as many began a rightward shift about a decade ago.

These small towns and cities could decide the election.

6. Former manufacturing towns will remain unpredictable

Many of Pennsylvania’s once prosperous coal and steel towns have flip-flopped over the last three election cycles, as many began a rightward shift about a decade ago.

These small towns and cities could decide the election.

Published Nov. 4, 2024, 4:01 p.m. ET

t

terruso_julia

o

orso_anna