How Republicans think they can regain ground for Trump in the blue Philly suburbs

“The Republican Party in Montgomery County is back.”

Christian Nascimento, the chair of the county party, made that declaration last month as rain drizzled over dozens of volunteers and committeepeople in Jenkintown, where the party opened the first of several planned satellite offices in traditionally blue areas.

While former President Donald Trump is unlikely to carry any of the Philadelphia collar counties, any chance for Republicans to improve upon the 2020 vote margins could play an essential role in the outcome of November’s presidential election, as well as the contest for the U.S. Senate and control of Pennsylvania’s statehouse.

The suburbs were critical to President Joe Biden’s 2020 win over Trump in Pennsylvania. In Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties, Biden expanded the total margin of victory by nearly 105,000 votes over Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance.

Republicans see an opportunity to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the economy and immigration under Biden to bring more voters to their side. Some are also sidestepping Trump’s rhetoric and combative style in an effort to draw more people into the Republican Party.

“We’re not just looking at ‘24,” said Giana DePaul, the executive director of the Montgomery County Republican Committee. She noted that after the presidential election in November, the party will immediately turn its attention to next year’s local races.

But making inroads could be an uphill battle for the GOP.

Jason Salus, chair of the Montgomery County Democratic Party, pointed to the records of Trump and his running mate Sen. JD Vance on issues like reproductive rights, which he said are likely to repel suburban voters.

“They have no choice but to try, but I’m bullish on our chances, but we’re not going to let our foot off the gas,” he said.

Philadelphia’s suburbs have been part of a longtime, nationwide trend of suburban areas, once bastions of economic conservatism, moving to the left. Montgomery County is the earliest, and most definitive, example of that change in the Philadelphia region. The county has voted for Democrats for president since 1992, and in 2011 Democrats flipped county government — years before the party won control of local government in the other collar counties.

In the time since, Democrats have tightened their grip on Montgomery County. And Republicans acknowledge they’ll need to work hard to improve their performance — especially as moderates left the party over their dislike for Trump.

Bob Asher, a former state and Montgomery GOP chair who has long been one of the most influential Republicans in Pennsylvania, funded the satellite offices opening this year. He said the party needs to “appeal to the moderate voter in the middle” and embrace Republicans across the ideological spectrum to gain ground.

“The party over the last probably 25 years maybe became not as effective in campaigning and in explaining the positions as they should. A lot of it, I think, we brought on ourselves,” he said.

The GOP hopes opening more offices, especially in some of the bluest townships, will help them capitalize on voters’ frustrations with Biden’s presidency.

“The biggest thing for this is just community identification, especially in some of these areas where it has been blue for so long,” DePaul said. “Even if they just drive by and see the sign they see that we’re here. We’re in the community and we want to hear from you.”

They’re also leaning into discussions of specific policy issues like the economy and immigration. Frank Agovino, chair of the Delaware County Republican Party, said he’s working to send a message that Republicans are “reasonable.”

The strategy shows in individual campaigns.

When U.S. Senate candidate Dave McCormick has visited the collar counties in recent months, his events have focused less on partisan politics and more on issues with broader appeal.

In June, he visited Bucks County for an event that focused on making Congress functional again. Weeks later in Delaware County, he unveiled his “pro-family” agenda, including proposals to protect access to in vitro fertilization and contraceptives while offering tax credits for fertility treatment. Still, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey is expected to outperform McCormick in the Philadelphia region.

Dave Winkler, who is challenging Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Madeleine Dean in the November general election, said he is working to reach beyond partisan politics.

“I say ‘Hey, look, the executive is going to be the executive. I’m there as a [legislator] to have oversight whether it’s a Democrat or Republican president, but I’m also here to focus on the business of the people,’” Winkler said of his conversations with voters.

Winkler is running a longshot campaign in a solidly Democratic district. Dean, a third-term incumbent, won by more than 20 points in 2022.

But he’s still trying to reach out to Democratic voters.

“Presence at Democrat doors need to happen because you will hear for yourself that they’re looking for you to come to that door, they’re looking for you to have that conversation, talk about those good conservative values,” Winkler told fellow Republicans at the office opening last month. “Do that work and we flip it.”

Guy Ciarrocchi, a GOP strategist, said Republicans in the suburbs will gain ground by turning out more Republican voters. He predicted that down-ballot candidates like U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R., Bucks) and McCormick may outperform Trump in the area.

“It’s really about generating support and encouraging your people to vote,” he said.

Montgomery County Republicans are doubling down on mail ballots, urging Republican voters to “bank” their votes rather than wait until Election Day to head to the polls.

“The easiest votes to get are folks who are already registered, and we’ve just got to get a ballot in their hands,” said Joe Rooney, chair of the Abington Republicans who is running for state representative in a heavily Democratic district.

Rooney is spending time this summer knocking on doors of Republicans, swing voters, or lightly Democratic voters, as categorized by campaign software. He’s handing out mail ballot applications to Republicans as he goes.

Rather than focusing on discussing specific policies, Rooney is asking what they care about and is already reaching out to local officials to help solve problems in their neighborhoods such as noise, traffic, or drug use.

Keith Herder, a registered Democrat in Abington, is one of those residents Rooney has sought to help.

In an interview outside his home, last week after Rooney stopped by, Herder said he’s frustrated by officials in his community not following through on their promises. He said he is open to voting for Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris in November.

Herder said he dislikes Trump as a politician, but respected him as a businessman. He said he likes Harris but is skeptical of whether she would improve the economy.

“The economy is bad, inflation is bad,” he said. “Who’s going to make it the best?”