Philly voter turnout increased, but dropped in many Black and Hispanic precincts — and that could be a problem for Democrats in 2024

To Philly Democratic leaders, Tuesday night’s general election was a triumph.

It marked their best performance in an off-year general election in about 20 years and reversed a pattern of declining turnout in the party’s largest repository of registered voters.

“There was a real concerted effort to get people involved,” said State Sen. Sharif Street, who chairs the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. “I think the grassroots organizing paid off.”

Progressive groups, who organized to elect two City Council candidates under a third party banner — against the wishes of local Democratic Party leadership — also took credit for some of the uptick after delivering more votes for their candidates than four years ago. An expensive state Supreme Court race, for which Democrats emphasized abortion rights, likely got voters to the polls as well.

But while turnout increased in Philadelphia this year — rising 10 percentage points from 2021, and 2 percentage points from 2019 — it didn’t grow as much as it did elsewhere in the state. And in Philadelphia the bounce back in turnout was largely concentrated in wealthier, predominantly white wards, according to an Inquirer analysis of unofficial results.

Zooming out, the city’s share of the statewide Democratic vote once again continued to slide downward, driven primarily by substantial gains in wealthier suburban areas across the state. Together, those figures point to potential areas of concern in 2024, particularly in majority Black and Latino communities, which polls show are slipping for Democrats as they look to Philadelphia for help winning the presidential and Senate races in a critical swing state.

Although Philadelphia Democrats outnumber Republicans 7-1 and constitute 20% of all the party’s registered voters statewide, the city accounted for under 15% of total Democratic ballots cast last week. That’s down from 20% as recently as 2016.

Philadelphia also continued to have the lowest overall turnout of any county in Pennsylvania, and the third-lowest Democratic turnout statewide.

“We’re not satisfied,” said Robert Saleem Holbrook, a member of the Working Families Party state committee, which elected two progressives to Philadelphia City Council. “If the state party wants to high five each other for this level of turnout they can do that. We look at this and say we gotta do more. We’re focused on those wards in Philadelphia where 26% turnout is the norm.”

Overall statewide turnout across all political parties increased by 4 percentage points from 2021, and about 7 percentage points from 2019.

That was likely fueled in part by a $20 million state Supreme Court race at the top of the ballot and the outsized publicity it generated about abortion rights.

In Philadelphia, about 31% of voters turned out to vote, up from nearly 23% in 2021 and 29% in 2019.

Having a mayoral election on the ballot — even in a city where the outcome is historically determined by the Democratic primary — along with competitive City Council races also contributed.

The Working Families Party and the large coalition of grassroots organizations behind it focused specifically on voters in Black and low-income communities — a strategy they say proved effective, as the party saw the most growth in those wards compared to 2019.

But winning more raw votes for Working Families candidates may have been the result of convincing already motivated voters to vote for a third party, not necessarily engaging voters who sat out in 2019.

Turnout in majority Black and Hispanic precincts, many of which are lower-income, was 11% lower than four years ago.

It was in the city’s largely whiter, wealthier wards that turnout increased, despite those efforts to draw in more low-income voters of color.

Black voters and those who are less engaged in off-year elections are one of the key populations Democrats are losing in key states like Pennsylvania, according to polling on the 2024 presidential election.

A similar pattern was apparent in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh and surrounding suburbs.

Voting surged in whiter, more suburban precincts outside of Pittsburgh, which are 90% white. Across Allegheny County, precincts that are 60% Black or more saw the number of ballots cast decline by more than a quarter compared to two years ago.

Lara Putnam, a history professor at the University of Pittsburgh, said a variety of factors could be at play, such as campaigns’ increased reliance on text messages over traditional door knocking.

She also said that, anecdotally, some voters were simply fatigued.

“And I’ve had folks say to me, ‘I’m just not voting anymore, I’m done with this country.’ … And if you want to live in a country where everyone has a voice, that’s devastating,” Putnam said.

Street agreed that demographic differences matter: Philadelphia remains the poorest big city in America, for one.

“Across the commonwealth, voter participation amongst people with more money and more education tends to be higher,” Street said. “The suburbs tend to have people who have more money and education. And when people in the city start doing better and getting more money and education, they tend to move to the suburbs.”

“Some of this stuff is beyond political apparatus,” Street said. “It just has to do with societal realities.”

Philly’s turnout gains lagged increases in other parts of the state. Take Allegheny County, again.

Although that county has fewer registered voters than Philadelphia and saw declines in Black voting, it still saw more voters turn out than in Philadelphia (41% of registered voters cast ballots, up from 33.3% in 2021). And while Philadelphia is home to 250,000 more registered Democrats than Allegheny County, it only brought in about 17,000 more votes for Supreme Court candidate Dan McCaffery, who was at the top of the party’s ticket statewide.

Although that performance was likely fueled in part by highly competitive county executive and district attorney races in Allegheny County, other key swing areas across the state also saw substantial increases in turnout:

Sarah Niebler, an associate professor of political science at Dickinson College, tied Democrats’ widening margins in Central Pennsylvania to increased suburban development around cities like Harrisburg or Lancaster.

“Increasing numbers of Democrats are living in both cities and suburbs ringing those cities,” she said. “Cumberland County is the fastest growing county in the commonwealth.”

The nationalization of politics also motivated people in once sleepy local races, turning out voters for school board and county offices. Democrats picked up wins on both counts across Philadelphia’s collar counties.

Putnam pointed to yearslong battles for control of suburban school boards as one example. Conservative groups like Moms for Liberty, which gained traction by capitalizing on parents’ anger over pandemic-era restrictions, may have fueled a Democratic response as the group advocated for book bans and anti-transgender policies.

“In places where folks got elected and prioritized culture war issues, you saw a backlash,” Putnam said. “People said, ‘I wanted sensible mask policies, not all this other stuff.’”

Philadelphia’s share of the overall vote has plummeted since 2020. Traditionally the Democratic Party has relied on a big vote haul in heavily Democratic Philadelphia to put the party over the edge in statewide races. More recently, though, Philadelphia’s contribution has been flat or shrinking, and the suburbs have been the big difference maker, increasing margins year after year.

As Democrats look ahead to 2024, they’ll aim to build on increases in suburban areas — but they’ll also have critical work cut out for them in urban areas where they have the most growth opportunity ahead of the presidential election cycle.

Holding together that coalition and those dual missions will be key.

“The votes are there in Philly,” Holbrook said. “We have to bring them out and that is our challenge now. And that’s our challenge in 2024.”