November will be an existential test for the Philly GOP as it fights to defend the last Republicans in City Hall

No one in Philadelphia political circles has been under any illusion that a Republican could win a citywide election over an average Democrat for more than a decade. GOP mayoral candidates, including this year’s nominee, admit their pursuit in deep-blue Philly is more than uphill — it’s akin to scaling a cliff.

But now, the city’s GOP is grappling with the prospect that it may not be able to hang on to City Council seats that are set aside for the opposition party.

The Nov. 7 general election presents something of an existential test for Philadelphia’s Republican Party, which has for decades watched its power and influence atrophy as the demographics of America’s urban centers became decidedly more favorable to Democrats.

A major setback came four years ago when Kendra Brooks of the progressive Working Families Party became the first third-party candidate to win a seat on Council in generations, ousting a Republican from an at-large seat effectively reserved for a non-Democrat. The head of the GOP resigned and called the election cycle “preposterous.”

This year, the Working Families Party is trying to take both set-aside Council seats. At the same time, Northeast Philadelphia Republican Brian O’Neill, who has been a member of Council since 1980, is facing one of the most well-funded general election challenges of his career.

And if all three GOP candidates fall, the 115,000 registered Republicans in the city would for the first time in modern history have no representative on Council. The only remaining Republican in City Hall would be City Commissioner Seth Bluestein.

“It’s facing losing its presence in Philadelphia,” said Sam Katz, a three-time mayoral candidate and ex-Republican.

Party leaders are projecting confidence. Vince Fenerty, who took over as chair of the Philly GOP last year, said its Council candidates have moderate sensibilities that appeal to a general election audience.

Still, Fenerty said the party is facing a polarized national political environment that makes it challenging to win in a city where Democrats hold a 7-1 voter registration advantage. He said former President Donald Trump’s grip on the Republican party has made it difficult for the Philly GOP to win over Democrats and independents.

“A lot of people hate us, and I don’t think it’s fair,” Fenerty said. “For people to just dislike Republicans because of Donald Trump and some of his far right-wing followers is unfair to working Republicans.”

Members of the city’s Republican party leadership admit that they underestimated the Working Families Party in 2019. That year, five Republican nominees were on the ballot and — as they had in the past — were largely competing with one another for two seats instead of with the third-party candidates.

This year will be different.

The party nominated five Republicans in the primary, and then three candidates promptly dropped out, leaving civic leader Drew Murray and small business owner Jim Hasher as the only two Republicans on the ticket. That makes for a head-to-head matchup with the Working Families Party.

Bill Heeney, a Republican ward leader who was one of the five GOP nominees in 2019, said ward endorsements were scrambled that year, making for a disorganized approach.

“Now it’s all solid,” he said. “Two guys, and we’re backing them both. Let’s make this happen.”

Matthew Wolfe, a lawyer and Republican ward leader, said making it a “two-on-two race is a big advantage for us.” He also said that Republicans frustrated with crime are motivated to vote, and that the competitive district Council race in the Northeast could juice turnout for the GOP.

But he admits that the Working Families Party is well funded. The group’s national party is organizing a door-knocking operation, and candidates Brooks and Nicolas O’Rourke have set fundraising records.

“The Working Families Party is better organized than they were four years ago,” Wolfe said. “We have our eyes wide open as to the challenges facing us.”

» READ MORE: Progressive third-party candidates outraised Republicans in Philly City Council race

The political environment now may be more favorable to Republican candidates than in 2019, said Josh Novotney, a Republican strategist and a ward leader. Amid widespread concerns about crime, he said there are “clear contrasts” between how the Republican and Working Families Party candidates would handle public safety.

“That’s where people are going to have to decide what kind of direction they want the city to go in,” he said.

To win in the at-large race, Republicans may need to perform outside the GOP strongholds in Northeast Philadelphia and parts of South Philly where working class white voters tend to cluster. Even parts of those traditional bastions of the Republican party have become more diverse over the last decade.

In national races, Republicans showed strength elsewhere. For example, in 2020, Trump outperformed other Republicans in majority-Latino precincts in parts of North and South Philadelphia.

The national Republican party made an effort to appeal to North Philadelphia Latino voters in 2022 as it tried to boost U.S. Senate candidate Mehmet Oz. Fenerty said the effort “did not work,” and said there may be a barrier for some voters who have had negative experiences with the criminal justice system.

“I think some of it is because of the distrust of the police,” he said. “Our association has always been with law and order.”

But Sam Oropeza — a Republican City Council candidate who lost in the primary to the party-backed candidates — said the Philly GOP has not made enough of an effort to make inroads in majority-Latino neighborhoods and other “communities where Republicans lose.”

“Philadelphia is a majority Black and brown city, and it’s a stupid strategy to stay away from these communities,” said Oropeza, who campaigned frequently in North Philadelphia and Kensington. “People will give you a chance if you are willing to show up, talk to them, listen to them, and have empathy to their situation.”

» READ MORE: Philly Republicans, fighting a potential City Council shut-out, are also battling each other

To grow GOP registration, Fenerty said he’s largely focused on recruiting Republican committeepeople, the foot soldiers who register voters and build the party apparatus.

In Philadelphia, there are about 600 Republican committeepeople. The Democratic party has more than 3,000.

Republican nominees for mayor have not found much success in recent Philadelphia history.

In 2011, former Democrat Karen Brown ran against incumbent Mayor Michael Nutter and barely eclipsed 20%. In 2015, the GOP nominee was Melissa Murray Bailey, another ex-Democrat who’d lived in the city for only three years and garnered less than 15% of the vote.

In 2019, Mayor Jim Kenney ran for reelection and hardly campaigned ahead of the general election. He still topped Republican nominee Billy Ciangalini with more than 80% of the vote.

Republicans think they’ve fielded a stronger candidate this time around: David Oh, a former City Council member who has won citywide elections. And although Democrat Cherelle Parker has vastly out-raised Oh, he has still brought in a respectable sum of money for a Republican candidate.

Oh has a diverse coalition of supporters, and thinks he can appeal to enough Democrats to pull off an upset.

The last Republican to truly compete for mayor was Katz, who lost to Democrat John F. Street in 2003. He said that year his campaign estimated that in order to win, he’d need to convince more than 35% of the city’s Democrats to vote for him.

Given that there are fewer registered Republicans today, that number is likely higher, Katz said, and “not reasonable.”

“You’d have to have an unpalatable Democratic candidate,” he said.

» READ MORE: David Oh isn’t a typical Republican. He likes it that way.

Fenerty said that if the Republican party wants to succeed in the future, it needs to rebrand into a party that can attract more moderates and swing voters. It’s why he is publicly supporting former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary election, despite Trump holding a commanding lead in polls.

“My first loyalty is to Philadelphia and to Pennsylvania,” he said. “I would hope Trump is not at the top of the ticket, because that spells disaster for the southeastern counties.”

As for how the Philly GOP can convince city voters that its candidates aren’t Trump? Fenerty was honest.

“I haven’t accomplished totally how to do that yet,” he said.

Inquirer data reporter Aseem Shukla contributed to this article.