What we’re hoping to learn from campaign finance reports from Philly mayoral and City Council candidates | 100th Mayor Newsletter
This week, we’ll talk about why the next few days could set the tone for November, and we’ll fondly remember what may have been Philadelphia’s weirdest mayoral campaign.
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It’s about that time again. The nights are getting chillier, soup has started sounding more appealing, and we’re trying our darnedest to get people excited about a Philadelphia general election.
There are certainly some interesting races to watch, but the lively mayoral campaign that dominated the spring is just less adrenaline-inducing now. In deep-blue Philly, Democrat Cherelle Parker is more than likely to win. Period.
Still, Republicans think David Oh could be their strongest mayoral candidate in two decades. We’ll get some information this week that will help us evaluate whether that’s really true.
Today we’ll talk about questions we think we’ll get answers to this week, and why that will set the tone for November. Plus, in this week’s mayoral moment, we’ll make like fashion trends and go back to 2007.
A quick note: We think Philly is better off when everyone has the facts needed to make an informed decision about this election. If someone forwarded you this newsletter, sign up for free here.
There are 42 days 🗓 until Election Day. Let’s get into it.
— Anna Orso and Sean Collins Walsh
3 questions we want answered this week
Let’s be honest: Most political prognostication is based on vibes. Especially now. We’re six weeks away from Election Day and don’t actually have a ton of data to evaluate the strength of the candidates.
We know Democrat Cherelle Parker is very likely to top Republican David Oh in the mayor’s race given the fact that there just aren’t that many Republicans in Philadelphia. But we don’t know how strong Oh’s bid will be compared to some lackluster GOP mayoral campaigns of yore. And closely watched City Council races seem like a tossup.
This week, we’ll get some cold, hard facts in the form of campaign finance filings due at midnight tonight. We know that sounds a little dull, but the money race is a great window into how candidates are performing. Here are three questions we’re hoping to answer:
How much money does Oh raise, and how does it compare? Oh will almost certainly not raise as much money as Parker, who has the Democratic Party and deep-pocketed labor unions behind her. But how Oh fundraises could set the tone for November, and will show us how serious of a bid he can really mount. Money pays for campaign staff, advertising, literature, consultants, and all the other things that make campaigns run. If GOP donors shell out, Oh might be able to make enough of a splash to force Parker to respond more frequently to him and his priorities.
How much do big GOP donors help the party’s Council candidates? One of the most closely watched races is the at-large City Council race, in which Republicans are battling the progressive Working Families Party for two seats that are essentially reserved for non-Democrats. (Long story.) The WFP thinks it may again break fundraising records for third-party candidates. The amount of money the two Republicans raise — and how much of it comes from major GOP donors — will tell us a lot about what to expect in the final weeks of campaigning. Will we see a TV ad war? Time, and cash, will tell.
Who is trying to influence city politics through super PACs? Big donors, special-interest groups, and corporations can really sway the outcome of elections if they pool money into super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited amounts of cash as long as they don’t coordinate with the candidates they’re boosting. We’re expecting to see a couple super PACs emerge in the Council race. We want to know who’s bankrolling them — and what they want in return.
Spotlight on: The early morning debate
After lots of speculation about whether Parker would agree to debate Oh, we finally have an answer: yeah, basically.
Parker and Oh will debate at 8 a.m. 😮💨 on KYW Newsradio on Oct. 26, less than two weeks before Election Day. It’s not quite the televised debate that we’re used to, but that’s not necessarily off the table. Parker spokesperson John Dolan said the campaign is “working out the scheduling and logistics for several public events that’ll feature both Mr. Oh and Cherelle.”
We’re just glad we’re getting at least one — even if it’s going to require a higher-than-average amount of coffee.
📮 Do you have a question for Parker or Oh? Let us know, and you may see the answer in an upcoming newsletter. Email us here.
Mayoral moments: Was 2007 the cringe campaign?
The 2007 mayoral election is remembered for Michael A. Nutter’s stunning come-from-behind victory, in which the little-known former City Council member began the campaign barely registering in the polls only to defeat several Philadelphia political heavyweights in the Democratic primary.
But a recent trip through the archives had us thinking that it should also be remembered for having spawned a series of goofy, odd, and sometimes cringe-worthy moments. Here are the highlights:
Throughout the campaign, billionaire businessman and first-time candidate Tom Knox faced accusations that he was trying to buy the mayor’s office. Knox didn’t dissuade many from that view when he said he was trying to ... buy the mayor’s office. “I’m trying to spend money for Philadelphia, so I can buy City Hall back for the people of Philadelphia,” he said. Points for honesty. He finished second. 💰
As the longtime chair of Philly’s Democratic City Committee, Bob Brady is as familiar as anyone with ballot challenges, which are attempts to disqualify candidates for messing up the paperwork needed to run. They’re a tried-and-true method of Brady’s own party to knee-cap challengers, so it was odd, to say the least, when he was nearly knocked off the ballot for failing to disclose a city pension on his papers. Brady survived the challenge but finished a distant third. 📝
Then-State Rep. Dwight Evans, who is now a member of Congress, wanted voters to know that Knox didn’t have much of a record on public safety. So, naturally, he handed out what appeared to be cheeseburgers during a press conference. After the befuddled journalists did their sacred duty as members of the fourth estate and unwrapped the fast food sandwiches, they were left with only buns and a question, posed by Evans: “Where’s the beef?” The burgers, it turned out, were a metaphor. “You got Tom Knox’s record right there. No beef. Nothing between the bread.” Evans, pictured above, finished fifth. 🍔
At the beginning of the race, Nutter lacked the public profile of his competitors, so he sought to boost his stature by... handing out Nutter Butter cookies in SEPTA stations. Winning has the effect of making every decision look genius in retrospect, so we can’t poke too much fun at this one. Kudos to the Nutter campaign. (But not Kudos.) 🥜
This was all buildup to the momentous event that Philly Mag has since dubbed “the greatest press conference in Philadelphia political history.” We’re speaking, of course, about the late T. Milton Street Sr. and the coffin. At a press conference outside City Hall, he sang the Mahalia Jackson gospel song “If I Can Help Somebody” while presiding over an empty casket that was supposed to represent two people who wanted to attend the event but were murdered earlier that day — a day police later said saw no double-homicides. Street was under indictment at the time and hoped the press conference would turn his fortunes around. He ended up dropping out and was convicted of tax evasion in 2008. ⚰️
In retrospect, this year’s Democratic primary, with nary a metaphorical prop, suffered from a severe lack of hijinks and cringe. Jeff Brown did his part by enraging the city of Chester with the line, “The trash has to go somewhere,” but the rest of the candidates remained pretty buttoned-up through the campaign. Politicians these days ...
🧠 Trivia time 🧠
Parker and Oh served in Council at the same time and they clashed over legislation in 2018, with Parker saying a bill Oh pushed didn’t “make a damn bit of sense.” What were they arguing over?
a. Requiring police to undergo mandatory minimum force training
b. Making it easier for landlords to kick out squatters
c. Cracking down on stop-and-gos
d. Medical marijuana dispensary zoning regulations
Find out here if you know the answer.
What else we’re reading
The Fashion District, a.k.a. the new Gallery, sure looks like it could fall into bankruptcy. That could really complicate the Sixers arena plans.
Cue the worst kept secret in politics: David McCormick is officially running for Senate again. Here’s the good news and the bad news for him.
The Darrell Clarke era of Philly City Council is coming to an end, and we know what his next gig might be.
Scenes from the campaign trail
Oh spent time mingling with supporters Monday afternoon, including U.S. Rep. Glenn “G.T.” Thompson, a Republican who is not a Philadelphia resident but endorsed Oh anyway.
Thanks for joining us for another edition of the 100th Mayor. We think we’ll need a beer or two after crunching fundraising numbers this week. Perhaps one of these?
See you next week,
Anna and Sean