It’s Election Day. Here’s what we’re watching for. | 100th Mayor Newsletter

After 14 months, 12 candidates, and almost $40 million in campaign cash, the race to elect Philadelphia’s 100th mayor comes to an end today.

Whoever voters choose will make history: Democrat Cherelle Parker as the first female mayor, or Republican David Oh as the first Asian American.

In this week’s newsletter, we’ll share what we’ll be looking for as the results come in tonight, take a dive into mail ballot data, and look back at a previous history-making mayor’s race.

It’s been a wild ride, and we’ve been honored to share it with our beloved newsletter readers. But we’re not saying goodbye just yet. This Friday, you can join us over on the Philadelphia subreddit for an AMA about the race results. And next week, we’ll send out one final newsletter with analysis and reflections on the race.

— Anna Orso and Sean Collins Walsh

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It’s no secret that Parker is favored to prevail in the mayor’s race. But there are other elections on the ballot, and plenty of interesting dynamics to unravel once we get the results.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for tonight:

🔺 Will Oh do well? If Oh pulls off a shocking upset and wins the mayor’s race — or if he even comes close — that will clearly be viewed as a major success for the former City Council member and for the Philadelphia GOP. But assuming he doesn’t do the unthinkable, what constitutes a good outing for Oh?

It’s a subjective question, of course. But given that no Republican since Sam Katz in 2003 has won more than 25% of the vote in a mayor’s race, we’re going to say that anything north of one-third of the vote should be reason for Oh to celebrate.

You may be asking: If Parker wins, why does this even matter? It’s not just a parlor game. If he outperforms expectations, it may send a message to the Philly GOP that it’s time to change the direction of the party.

That’s because Oh isn’t your average Philly Republican. Throughout his political career, he has courted immigrant groups and diverse communities, instead of focusing on the traditional GOP strongholds in white working-class neighborhoods.

🐘 Will there be any Republicans left on Council? There is a real chance that come January, the GOP will have no members of Council. It’s a shocking possibility in a city that was controlled by the Republican machine until the 1950s and has had GOP representation ever since.

Currently, Brian O’Neill, who represents the Far Northeast-based 10th District, is the only Republican on Council. He’s in a tough reelection battle against Democrat Gary Masino, leader of the sheet metal workers union.

Two other Republicans — Jim Hasher and Drew Murray — are seeking at-large seats, which are elected citywide. They’re up against incumbent Kendra Brooks and Nicolas O’Rourke from the progressive Working Families Party, in a fight for two seats that are effectively reserved for non-Democrats.

The races for all three of those seats are viewed as toss-ups.

⚖️ Who will win the open Pennsylvania Supreme Court seat? We at the 100th Mayor newsletter are Philly politics junkies. But there is an enormously consequential statewide election for a Pennsylvania Supreme Court seat on the ballot as well.

The candidates are both locals: Republican Carolyn Carluccio is the president judge of the Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas, and Democrat Dan McCaffery is a Superior Court judge from Philadelphia.

The race has attracted millions in campaign spending, and it’s no wonder why. The state Supreme Court often has final say over issues ranging from abortion to congressional redistricting, and it could soon become tied up in presidential politics if there is litigation in Pennsylvania regarding the results of the 2024 election.

It’s no secret that public safety is a major concern for Philadelphians.

Following years of record-setting levels of shootings and homicides, the mayor’s race and Council elections have been dominated by issues of crime and policing.

A new survey by the Urban Affairs Coalition confirms that Philadelphians remain focused on safety — but it also showed the nuances that aren’t always reflected in the talking points heard on the campaign trail.

Here are the numbers:

51%: More than half of the 1,002 people who took the web survey, which was primarily distributed by the Urban Affairs Coalition and its nonprofit partners, said crime has had a “major negative impact”

58%: That’s the share of survey respondents who said it was “extremely important” for the city to reduce crime by “passing stricter gun laws,” “increasing access to mental health and drug treatment services,” and “increasing funding for schools.” No surprises there.

23%: The share who said it was “extremely important” to “expand stop and frisk” — making it the least popular crime-fighting strategy mentioned in the survey. That finding raised our eyebrows because, as our loyal newsletter readers know, Parker has made a point of saying she believes the Police Department should embrace the use of “constitutional” stop-and-frisk, a controversial policing tactic that critics say leads to racial discrimination.

“It’s good to think of the psychology of the average Philadelphian as separate from the politics,” said Arun Prabhakaran, president of the Urban Affairs Coalition. “When you start to ask Philadelphians what they think, you get some really brilliant insights. The problem is we don’t really listen to Philadelphians when we think about our problems.”

Tuesday will be a history-making day in Philadelphia politics. So let’s rewind to 1983, when W. Wilson Goode Sr. made history by becoming the first Black person elected mayor of Philadelphia.

Goode’s election was the culmination of years of efforts by activists and politicians to break the racial barrier in Philadelphia politics. Most notably, he followed in the footsteps of Charlie Bowser, whose campaigns in 1970s were seen as the first serious mayoral runs by a Black candidate and major steps toward making Goode’s victory possible.

Here’s what you need to know about Goode:

❇️ Goode served as managing director in the administration of his predecessor, Bill Green, who declined to seek reelection in 1983.

❇️ Goode’s history-making campaign is all the more notable because he defeated former Mayor Frank Rizzo in the Democratic primary. Rizzo, a former police commissioner and champion of “law-and-order” politics, was then and is still now seen as the symbol of Philadelphia’s racist reaction to the city’s changing demographics following the Great Migration.

❇️ Sadly, Goode’s tenure is not remembered as fondly as his election is. Goode was mayor during the 1985 MOVE bombing, one of Philadelphia’s darkest days, and he left office amid a major fiscal crisis for the city.

❇️ Goode is nonetheless well-regarded for being a dedicated public servant during his life as an ex-mayor. He became a minister and leader of Amachi, a mentoring program for children impacted by incarceration that has spread across the country. His son W. Wilson Goode Jr. served on Council from 2000 to 2016.

🎤 This week, we’re going to pass the mic to our colleague Aseem Shukla, a journalist with our data-driven storytelling team, for a look into what past election results say about Philly voters.

With Election Day upon us, is there anything the data tell us about how many people are going to turn out? How they’re going to vote? What that tells us about 2024?

As a self-sanctioned Data Person, I’m going to disappoint you by saying: no, no, and no. The fact is, there is no crystal ball that can prognosticate the results of today’s election or the strength and size of the electorate based on early indicators.

But we do have some clues about one small slice of the electorate. That is to say: mail voters. And if their behavior is any guide, 2023 doesn’t seem likely to set any turnout records.

Unless you got a case of Jason Bourne-esque amnesia roughly four years ago, you’ll recall that mail voting was a Big Deal in the 2020 election. Rates of mail ballot use increased sharply among members of both parties that year (although especially among registered Democrats), before coming back down after that.

Similar numbers of people seem on track to vote by mail this year as in the last off-year election in 2021 — and their breakdown by party seems similar. Let’s look at some numbers:

So not much change. By contrast, those totals are all well below what they were in 2022, which almost certainly means lower turnout this year.

But you didn’t need me to tell you that: There isn’t a competitive race for U.S. Senate, governor, or even really mayor on the line this time.

And remember, we don’t know anything yet about that other, much larger, much younger slice of the electorate: people who’ll show up to vote in person.

As you can see, Councilmember Jimmy Harrity is pumped for Election Day. You should be, too! Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.

Thanks so much for joining us on Election Day. We’re excited to bring you results and analysis next week — maybe after a day or two of sleep.

— Anna and Sean