The Philly mayor’s race is in the home stretch, with five contenders, millions to be spent, and one month to go

With one month to go before the all-important Democratic primary, the Philadelphia mayor’s race remains wide open.

But the shape of the race has begun to clarify after last week, the most consequential of the campaign to date. Two major candidates dropped out, the Board of Ethics accused a front-runner of wrongdoing, and the first televised debate showed who is ready for primetime.

Those developments have helped illuminate paths to victory for the remaining serious contenders: former City Councilmembers Helen Gym, Cherelle Parker, and Allan Domb; ex-City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart; and ShopRite proprietor Jeff Brown.

Neil Oxman, a political consultant who has worked on nearly every mayoral race since 1979 but is unaffiliated in this one, called the campaign one of the most fascinating he’s ever seen because of how competitive it still appears to be.

“Any one of the top five can still win right now,” Oxman said.

There has been no independent, publicly available polling in the race, but private polls that have made the rounds in political circles have consistently shown that no candidate has separated from the pack. At the moment, the top five candidates each appear to be taking between 10% and 20% of the vote, and many voters remain undecided.

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That could all change quickly depending on what happens with the more than $22 million and counting that has flowed into the campaigns and the political groups backing them — especially if more negative advertising appears.

Four of the top contenders have independent expenditure committees, or “super PACs,” ready to spend hefty sums on their behalf, and the fifth, Domb, has a personal fortune he has shown no compunction about tapping for his mayoral bid.

Presidential elections have “October surprises” — game-changing developments, often of the scandalous variety, that come to light just weeks before voters head to the polls. For this Philly mayor’s race, it was an April surprise, and it came in the form of the Board of Ethics.

On Monday, the city agency tasked with enforcing campaign finance laws accused Brown of illegally coordinating with an outside spending group that has raised millions to boost his profile but is supposed to operate independently of his campaign.

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The news broke the day before the first TV debate, allowing his rivals to tee off on Brown. He didn’t make things any easier on himself by making a dismissive comment about Chester in response to a question about complaints of environmental racism — providing the first viral moment of the election.

Brown is also the only candidate so far who has been subjected to attack ads on TV. That’s thanks to Domb, a real estate magnate who has poured $7 million into his own campaign and stands to benefit if Brown loses support with white working-class voters in South and Northeast Philadelphia.

As if to resuscitate Brown’s campaign with those voters, the Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 5 on Thursday endorsed Brown, turning the Northeast — where many police officers and their families live — into a complicated battlefield that as many as four of the top candidates are making a play for.

Despite the endorsement, many political observers believe the events of the last week have done irreparable harm to Brown’s chances. Oxman said Brown, a first-time candidate who shot to the top tier of the race after being one of the first candidates with a significant TV presence, has “probably peaked.”

Sam Katz, a documentarian who ran for mayor three times, said Brown “is out of it.”

“I’ve never seen anybody pull as many unforced errors on their own as Brown,” Katz said.

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George R. Burrell, a former City Councilmember who unsuccessfully ran for mayor, said Brown was “obviously hurt” by the news of the ethics probe. But Burrell said Brown could bounce back, citing his “strong message” as an outsider at a time when many feel disillusioned with the state of the city.

“Jeff Brown hasn’t collapsed,” he said, “but he’s at least made himself vulnerable.”

For Brown, a lot could depend on what happens in the court case over his alleged coordination with For a Better Philadelphia, the super PAC backing him. The ethics board’s lawsuit will be heard on April 24, and Common Pleas Court Judge Joshua Roberts said he intends to make a decision that day.

Gym, a leader of the city’s progressive movement who helped push Council to the left in her two terms, has long been considered a front-runner thanks to her loyal and passionate following among young voters in gentrifying neighborhoods.

Her most likely opportunity for growth beyond that bloc is relatively older, liberal voters in Center City and Northwest Philadelphia. But she appears to have hit a roadblock: Rhynhart, the former controller.

Joseph P. McLaughlin, a City Hall veteran and former director of Temple University’s Institute for Public Affairs, said Rhynhart has surpassed his expectations, noting she collected the most signatures on her nomination petitions, has been endorsed by two former mayors, and has the backing of several high-turnout wards in Center City.

“She has more grassroots support than I would have imagined when we started,” McLaughlin said.

Alan Butkovitz, a ward leader who is supporting Parker, agreed that Rhynhart could cut into Gym’s support, saying the early expectation was that Gym would be “overwhelmingly strong” in Center City.

“Now it’s clear that Rhynhart is pulling predominant support in some sections,” said Butkovitz, a former controller who lost to Rhynhart in 2017. “That tracks this ideological divide. Rhynhart is a more business [candidate], and Gym is a more leftist candidate. But there’s some crossover.”

Still, Gym remains strongly positioned. She was endorsed by the Philadelphia Federation of Teachers, and is backed by a coalition of well-organized progressive groups. Among them is the Working Families Party, which has teamed up with four other organizations to knock on about 300,000 doors to boost Gym.

Barring another major surprise, Oxman said Gym’s fervid base may be enough to lift her to victory.

There are some data to back up how loyal Gym’s supporters are. An Inquirer analysis of campaign-finance records found that, of all the candidates, Gym’s donor base has been most unique — the vast majority did not contribute to other candidates. For example, of Domb’s donors, about 15% also donated to at least one of his rivals. Only 5% of Gym’s did the same.

And other candidates appear to be testing attacks on Gym. One day after Brown’s stumbles at the debate, several took notably aggressive postures toward her at a forum.

“She’s got a hard base,” Oxman said of Gym. “The question is, if someone attacks Helen, does her base move, or are they too committed to her?”

By any measure, Parker had a good week.

Former Councilmember Derek Green dropped out of the race, making Parker the only remaining top candidate who is Black. The bad news for Brown, who made significant efforts to appeal to Black voters, is likely good news for Parker. Council President Darrell L. Clarke announced he is supporting her, the latest in a string of endorsements from top Black elected officials in the city.

And on Friday, she was endorsed by The Black Clergy of Philadelphia and Vicinity, another sign that she has momentum. McLaughlin said the group’s backing is “very significant” and may make Parker the favorite.

But there are doubts about whether Black voters, often the most important voting bloc in city politics, will turn out in the same numbers this year. About 42% of Black voters remain undecided, according to a recent poll reported by the Philadelphia Tribune.

Burrell said a high percentage of undecided Black voters “could be a problem for Cherelle because they have not attached to her,” adding that it could be an indicator of potentially low turnout.

“Cherelle relies on the fact that she will be the only Black candidate on the stage, but right now, today, no one is speaking to the community,” he said. “This is a frustration for the Black community. Nobody is challenging the white business community on their responsibility to address Black poverty, Black wealth, and Black employment.”

Councilmember Curtis Jones Jr., who has endorsed Parker, said it is no longer the case that Philadelphians automatically vote along racial lines.

“Philadelphia’s electorate has gotten beyond that kind of definition of how they predictably will vote,” Jones said.

He pointed to Mayor Jim Kenney, who is white but won over large numbers of Black voters in his 2015 win over State Sen. Tony Williams, who is Black. Conversely, former Mayor Michael A. Nutter, who is Black, won the 2007 race over white businessman Tom Knox with significant support in white neighborhoods.

But Jones said Parker will win over Black voters thanks to her message and to endorsements from well-known elected officials such as Clarke. He expects the field to continue to consolidate.

“People that are running for office have to make an assessment: Do I have a path?” Jones said. “I think this bodes well for Cherelle Parker.”

Inquirer staff writers Julia Terruso and Aseem Shukla contributed to this article.