Why Rebecca Rhynhart’s second-place campaign for Philly mayor still beat expectations

Rebecca Rhynhart and her team were crammed in a room at a Northern Liberties restaurant as results rolled in on election night, and they could see where the Philadelphia mayor’s race was headed.

The former city controller, one of several top contenders for the Democratic nomination for mayor, was performing well in areas of the city where her voters were clustered. But she needed to win votes in majority-Black neighborhoods to win citywide. And she wasn’t getting enough of them.

Rhynhart came in second with about 23% of the vote — nearly 10 percentage points behind Cherelle Parker, who won with big support from Black, Latino, and working-class neighborhoods.

“I really went into election day thinking Rebecca or Cherelle would win,” said Rhynhart’s campaign manager, Kellan White. “It just became, ultimately, a math problem.”

But Rhynhart outperformed strategists’ expectations and proved that a technocrat without buzzy campaign moments or endorsements from labor unions can still build a coalition of support and run a competitive mayoral campaign in Philadelphia.

She narrowly edged out Helen Gym, the progressive favorite who was considered a rising star. And Rhynhart had more than twice as many votes as Allan Domb, a former City Council member who poured about $11 million into his own campaign and came in fourth.

Rhynhart’s campaign wasn’t flashy. She ran on a platform of making government more efficient, and stressed often that she knows the city budget “inside and out.” She didn’t get national media coverage or create mic-drop moments, but she also didn’t make major mistakes, and her campaign suffered no significant controversies.

Most notably, Rhynhart had no institutional support. While she was endorsed by three former mayors, her top two opponents had robust operations behind them. Parker had the building trades unions and much of the Democratic establishment in her corner, winning support in more than 40 of the city’s 69 wards. Gym had the teachers’ union and a variety of well-organized political organizations, plus endorsements from progressive giants such as U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders.

» READ MORE: Progressive mayors have won elections in Boston, Los Angeles, and Chicago. Here’s why Philadelphia’s race was different.

That institutional backing translated to well-funded independent expenditure groups, also known as super PACs, that could spend unlimited amounts of money on advertising to boost Parker and Gym. In the final stretch of the campaign, the group backing Parker ran negative TV commercials about Rhynhart that hit her for previously working on Wall Street. And the one boosting Gym worked to tie Rhynhart to pro-charter school interests.

Rhynhart had two super PACs in her corner, but they were vastly out-raised and neither ran television advertising.

Despite the lopsided circumstances, Rhynhart was formidable. She polled in the middle of the pack through much of the campaign, then was surging by April, when she came out on top of the first public poll conducted in the race.

Rhynhart stitched together an unusual coalition of liberals, many of whom live in wealthier parts of Center City and Northwest Philadelphia, and more moderate Democrats who live in working-class neighborhoods. That meant Rhynhart was competing for votes with Gym, the most progressive of the top contenders, and Domb, one of the most moderate. That made it challenging to target voters, because she didn’t have a natural geographic base.

An Inquirer analysis of six distinct voting blocs among Philadelphia Democrats found that wealthy white liberals delivered almost 50% of their vote to Rhynhart, with Gym a distant second at 26%. Rhynhart came in second to Gym among younger white progressives, and second to Domb, narrowly, among working-class white moderates.

Rhynhart pulled significant support in Center City, where she was endorsed and appeared on the party’s sample ballots in four high-turnout wards. She also won in the Queen Village-based Second Ward, where Gym was endorsed.

» READ MORE: How Cherelle Parker won the primary: Black voters, a boost from labor, and a personal story of Philly grit

White credited the campaign’s large team of field operatives who organized door-knocking and phone-calling beginning in the winter.

He said the campaign tried to grow Rhynhart’s appeal with Black voters, but that was a challenge, particularly toward the end of the race, when Parker was backed by large unions of mostly Black workers, the Black Clergy, and most of the city’s Black elected officials.

“I don’t actually have any notes on what we could have done better,” White said. “Not to sound defeatist in a way, but it is what it is. We were one of two campaigns whose message stayed consistent from the day they announced to election day.”

He added: “We got 23% of the vote, and I’m tremendously proud of that. Because anyone you talked to in October would have said, ‘well, it’s really between Cherelle and Helen.’”

Former Mayor Michael A. Nutter, one of Rhynhart’s top surrogates, said it’s clear that undecided voters were moving toward Parker in the final days of the race, or what he called “the biggest surge at an incredibly impactful time.”

Nutter said that for many Black voters, Parker, who grew up in Northwest Philadelphia, was more relatable. Rhynhart, while she has lived in Philadelphia for more than 15 years, is a white woman who grew up in the suburbs.

“Cherelle communicated her life story in a way that people could hear and understand,” Nutter said. “Rebecca didn’t have that story. Your story is your story.”

He said his endorsement, paired with one from former Mayor John F. Street, may have helped Rhynhart win over some voters. But he said her message resonated on its own, and that she “has a future ahead of her.”

“She ran a great campaign and was her authentic self and didn’t try to blow anybody up,” Nutter said. “Any number of options would be available to her.”

White said Rhynhart is unlikely to jump into another election any time soon, but as for what’s next, he said “stay tuned.”

“We’re both excited for the next venture, whatever that may be,” he said, “to figure out how can we help make Philadelphia a better city, even if it’s outside of government.”

Inquirer data analysis Aseem Shukla contributed to this article.