Has Rep. Scott Perry met his match in TV anchor Janelle Stelson? The high-stakes seat could be ‘flippable’

DILLSBURG, Pa. — At Wolfe’s Diner in Dillsburg, York County, a sign on the wall imparts Rule No. 1 for lingering over coffee inside the 69-year-old stainless steel chunk of Americana: “Have another cup, you can sleep when you’re dead.”

Rule No. 2 is conveyed politely by waitress Ashley Walker.

“The owners don’t allow political talk here,” said Walker, 36. “Arguments are a mess. I like not hearing the opinions anymore. I’d rather not know we have so much hate.”

Walker acknowledges the enforced silence is ironic, given that Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, a nearby resident who’s running for his seventh term representing Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, is a frequent customer. “Good tipper, always smiling, lots to say,” Walker said. It’s not clear, she added, whether he’s following house rules.

Perry, an ally of former President Donald Trump and election denier who tried to halt certification of Pennsylvania’s 2020 electoral votes, is being challenged by centrist Janelle Stelson, a Republican-turned-Democrat and widely recognized, but politically untested, former news anchor for NBC affiliate TV station WGAL.

The contest is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s radar. Perry, 63, may be vulnerable in the central Pennsylvania district, according to national congressional ratings outlets, and therefore worthy of a nationally financed campaign to help tip the GOP-controlled House into Democratic hands.

“This is one of a handful of U.S. Congressional seats that Democrats believe are flippable,” said political scientist Sarah Niebler, an election expert at Dickinson College in Carlisle, which is in the 10th Congressional District.

The big issue for Democrats? “Perry himself,” said Dan Mallinson, a professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg.

Stelson, 64, labeled her rival an “extremist” conspiracy agent of “chaos” and an “insurrectionist” who once headed the far-right House Freedom Caucus and voted to defund the FBI.

“So far, she’s been fundraising better,” Mallinson said. Campaign finance figures showed that Stelson took in $1.33 million from April 4 to the end of June, while Perry netted $625,000.

“This could be a tight race, and that extra cash can help Stelson go toe-to-toe with Perry,” Niebler said.

Still, the contest has yet to heat up, with voters more preoccupied with a historic presidential race than congressional battles. Trump visited the district last week, holding a rally in Harrisburg — his first in Pennsylvania after he survived an assassination attempt in Butler.

As of June, Perry and Stelson were in a virtual tie, with Perry slightly up, 45% to 44%, and with 11% undecided, according to a Franklin and Marshall College poll of the 10th District. The region is 44% Republican, 38% Democratic, and 17% unaffiliated or independent.

At the Capital City Mall in Camp Hill, Cumberland County, last week, Sandra Gonzalez, wearing a Trump shirt, predicted Perry’s lead will only increase.

“His voting record is stellar,” said Gonzalez, 60, of York, who doesn’t work. “That’s because he’s about protecting our border, and he doesn’t vote to send money to Ukraine and Israel. I’d take a bullet for him.”

While Perry might be “hard to topple,” Mallinson said, his contentious tenure could be a hindrance. The Franklin and Marshall poll shows Perry has a 39% favorable and 41% unfavorable rating in the district.

“Conversely,” Mallinson said, “there’s no controversy about Stelson.”

Actually, there’s no political track record at all. Nearly 50% of voters say they don’t know enough about her views, according to the poll.

“But she’s got great name recognition,” said Stephanie Robinson, 41, who’s leaving a job organizing voter registration in Harrisburg for a similar one in Virginia “As a 26-year anchorwoman, Janelle is trusted. I’m not hearing much interest in Perry.”

In an interview Friday afternoon, Stelson said that while she’s never held office, she believes that her work as an Emmy Award-winning journalist who’s covered civic affairs — and has moderated two of Perry’s previous election debates — has grounded her in politics and the way Washington works.

And, she added, as a newcomer, “I don’t have the bad record Scott Perry has.”

One frequent criticism lobbed at Stelson is that she lives in Manheim Township, Lancaster County, outside the boundaries of the 10th Congressional District, which includes all of Dauphin, and parts of Cumberland and York counties.

Federal rules require that U.S. House candidates must live in the state where they are elected, but they do not require residency in the specific district — though it is generally seen as a liability to live outside of one’s district.

“Dude, she’s just five miles outside the district,” said J.J. Balaban, a Democratic political strategist who’s creating advertisements for Stelson. “If that’s the best the Republicans have against her, that’s some weak tea.”

Balaban said Democrats are hoping that voters have grown tired of Perry’s bombast and are open to a moderate candidate who’s for a woman’s right to choose and who understands what people in the 10th District most care about: unemployment, and higher gas and utility prices, according to the Franklin and Marshall poll.

Democrats are encouraged that while Trump won the district by 4 percentage points in 2020, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro took it by 12 points in 2022.

“That’s a lot of Republicans who walked into voting booths and said, ‘I’m not a locked into one party,’” Balaban said. “There could be some swing voters, especially in an area of transition.”

While Dauphin County, home to Harrisburg, is Democratic, both York and Cumberland counties are mostly Republican. But Cumberland is changing, with a larger and more diverse population, as well as increasing numbers of suburbanites who work in government and the medical community.

Still, Perry’s people are betting that Stelson won’t be hard to defeat. “The Democrats always target the congressman, and he wins every time,” said Matt Beynon, Perry’s campaign spokesperson.

With incumbency on their side, Perry’s team believes that the congressman can outmaneuver the newcomer once the campaign really gets going.

“She hasn’t put herself out on issues like the border, immigration, and the influx of fentanyl yet, and no one knows where she stands,” Beynon said. “She has a lot of explaining to do over the next three months.

“We’re looking forward to prosecuting that.”

As for immigration, Stelson said that both parties “botched the border” with ideas that haven’t worked.

She criticized Perry and other Republicans for opposing a package negotiated by President Joe Biden that would have tied increased border security to aid to Ukraine and Israel. Trump opposed the package.

Stelson said Perry and other Republicans chose to “scuttle the bipartisan deal that would have provided increased support for border security,” so that Trump could use the issue in the election.