Why this ‘ultracompetitive’ House race in the Lehigh Valley could predict the presidency

ALLENTOWN — With just days left in a hugely consequential election, U.S. Rep. Susan Wild sat on a panel alongside two Democratic senators at a Lehigh Valley community college this week and said her Republican opponent is aligned with antiabortion groups and would threaten access to reproductive health care.

Hours later and a few miles down the road, that opponent, State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, spoke at a rally for former President Donald Trump and told 8,000 of Trump’s supporters that Wild is responsible for “economic heartbreak” and a “wide-open southern border.”

“Are you ready to fire Susan Wild?” he asked, to uproarious applause.

Wild and Mackenzie are employing dueling strategies to try to tie each other to unpopular national figures and causes in the final days of the race to represent Pennsylvania’s 7th District, which covers a large swath of the Lehigh Valley. Wild has represented the area since 2018, when Democrats won a wave of seats in Congress two years after Trump took the White House.

This year’s race is shaping up to be Wild’s fourth highly competitive general election, and is one of a handful of races that could tip control of the U.S. House, where Republicans currently hold a narrow majority.

The outcome could also predict the presidency. The 7th District has been one of Pennsylvania’s most reliable bellwether congressional districts, and it has swung the way the country has for several presidential elections.

» READ MORE: This Lehigh Valley congressional race could determine who controls the House

The eastern Pennsylvania district is in some ways a microcosm of America. It includes Allentown, the state’s third-largest city, which has a majority Latino population. It has growing suburbs trending increasingly blue. And it has rural areas and a sliver of the Poconos that are decidedly Trump country.

“It has that magical mix of areas,” said Chris Borick, a political science professor and pollster at Muhlenberg College in Allentown. “You look at the partisan divide, the presidential voting record, and everything speaks to it being ultracompetitive.”

That intensity can be felt across the Lehigh Valley, where political signs seemingly dot every lawn and where the election dominates so much of everyday life, from television to billboards to signs hanging in businesses.

Borick said that level of saturation can make it hard for a candidate like Mackenzie to break through and grow his name recognition, given much of the political oxygen is devoted to the presidential campaign and the competitive Senate race between Democratic incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick.

Most analysts say Wild — who won two years ago by just two percentage points — is slightly favored to win reelection. Limited public polling, including a survey by Muhlenberg taken about a month ago, shows her ahead by a few points but within the margin of error. Her campaign and its Democratic allies have largely outspent Mackenzie.

But it’s still a close race, and Mackenzie has had help from high-profile Republican surrogates campaigning for him in the area, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.). Mackenzie has crisscrossed the district, campaigning for months and courting voters that span the Republican and independent spectrum.

“Susan Wild is a formidable campaigner. She always has been,” said Sam Chen, a GOP strategist based in the Lehigh Valley. “But I think Ryan Mackenzie is the toughest campaigner she’s faced.”

Before Wild won the seat, it was held by Republican U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, a moderate who has been critical of Trump and said he voted this year for Vice President Kamala Harris. Before Dent, Pat Toomey, a Republican who went on to serve in the Senate, represented the district. Toomey is more traditionally conservative but voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial and said this year he won’t be voting for him.

Mackenzie is not following in the path of the Republicans who formerly held the seat he’s seeking.

He has aligned himself with Trump, campaigning this week alongside Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s oldest son. At the Trump rally Tuesday, Mackenzie said he would be a steadfast supporter of Trump if he wins back the presidency.

“If we do all the hard work to elect Donald J. Trump back to the White House, he needs a Congress that is going to back him up and enact all these policies,” Mackenzie said.

But Mackenzie has also presented himself in advertising as a pragmatic state representative who can work with Democrats to pass bipartisan legislation. He has centered his campaign on improving the economy, and doesn’t wade into culture war issues as frequently as Trump.

Borick said Mackenzie — similarly to McCormick — is trying to balance appealing to Trump’s MAGA movement with maintaining support in the suburbs.

“Ryan Mackenzie is running an outstanding race,” said Joe Vichot, the GOP chair in Lehigh County. “He was the perfect candidate. He’s already served. He has a record to speak on. And he knows how to challenge Susan Wild on the issues.”

Of course, Democrats are skeptical of the image Mackenzie is trying to cultivate. Wild has portrayed him as aligned with extremist groups, and her campaign is bombarding him in advertising, saying he’ll gut Social Security and Medicare. Mackenzie has denied that and presented himself as the candidate who will protect those programs.

Wild has also said Mackenzie would threaten access to abortion and other types of reproductive health care, citing a vote he took while in the state House that would have restricted abortion after 20 weeks’ gestation. Wild has made women’s health issues a cornerstone of her time in Congress, including championing a bill to protect access to in vitro fertilization.

Mackenzie has called himself “pro-life” but says he opposes a national abortion ban and would work to expand access to IVF. “Susan Wild is deceiving voters,” he says on his campaign website.

State Rep. Josh Siegel, a Democrat who represents parts of Allentown, said that’s “false moderation” and suggests Mackenzie is in favor of a status quo in which abortion is banned or severely restricted in other states across the country.

“Ryan is by no means a moderate,” Siegel said. “And I think you’re going to see that in the results.”