Inside the GOP’s effort to help Donald Trump lose Philadelphia — by a little bit less

This presidential election is a game of margins.

Gone are the days of candidates staying laser-focused on areas where they’re strong and cutting their losses elsewhere. This year in Pennsylvania, a coveted swing state where polls show the race virtually tied, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are trying to play everywhere — peel off a few voters here, pick up a couple there.

The go-everywhere strategy means Trump, his campaign, and the Republican Party see their path to winning Pennsylvania running through an unlikely place: deep-blue Philadelphia.

Though Philly is a liberal bastion where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 7-1, Republicans in the city say the Trump campaign and its allied groups have a more robust presence here this year than they did in 2016 or 2020.

Earlier this year, Trump held a rally at Temple University, the first he ever held in Philadelphia. His campaign has an office in the city and has deployed door-knockers in majority-Democratic neighborhoods, while a half-dozen allied groups are flooding residents of all political persuasions with pro-Trump and anti-Harris mail.

» READ MORE: Six trends that could decide Pennsylvania for Kamala Harris or Donald Trump

Josh Novotney, a Republican consultant and a ward leader in the city, said he hasn’t seen as sophisticated a GOP presidential operation in the city since 2004. That was the year former President George W. Bush ran for reelection, winning a higher share of Philadelphia voters than any Republican presidential candidate since.

“They’re trying to not to leave any corner of voters untouched,” Novotney said of the Trump campaign.

No one is under any illusions: Harris will win Philadelphia by a large margin. The Republican-aligned apparatus in the city does not come close to the size or scope of the Democratic one, and the Trump campaign has outsourced much of its get-out-the-vote operation to outside groups, like the one run by billionaire Elon Musk.

» READ MORE: Elon Musk donated nearly $75 million to his America PAC in the last quarter. It’s responsible for Trump voter mobilization in Pa.

But Republicans say if Trump can grow by even a few points in densely populated Philadelphia — losing by a little bit less and netting a few thousand votes — it could be decisive in an election that may hinge on Pennsylvania.

Trump proponents believe he’s making progress in the city, despite his having maligned the city as a place where “bad things happen.” Polls show him performing better nationally with Black and Latino voters, especially men, than he did four years ago. Two major unions — with thousands of members in Philadelphia — that have generally backed Democrats declined to endorse a candidate this year.

» READ MORE: In deep-blue Philly, working class voters are shifting toward Republicans

And Democrats lost ground with working-class voters in the city between 2016 and 2020. Some voted for Trump and others didn’t vote at all, and fewer voters showing up in blue strongholds is effectively a gain for Republicans. Voters bombarded with negative advertising about Harris could decide not to vote.

“No doubt we’re playing on their turf,” James Blair, the Trump campaign’s political director, told the news organization NOTUS. “We’re not expecting to win all of the people, but if we shave off a few points here, a few points there, the net impact on likelihood of winning is very significant for us.”

Color Democrats skeptical.

“Trump said ‘bad things happen in Philly,’ and bad things will happen again in Philly for him,” said former U.S. Rep. Bob Brady, chair of the Democratic City Committee. “He’s got to find another place to go.”

Democrats have run Philadelphia for generations, and the party’s presidential candidates have carried the city by huge margins. In 2020, President Joe Biden won 81% of votes in the city — as he narrowly won the state. Former President Barack Obama won 85% of the Philly vote in 2012.

Still, a Trump campaign official, who requested anonymity to discuss campaign tactics, said the city is a “major target.” The campaign says it has a stronger presence in swing-state major cities like Philadelphia and Detroit this year, with the goal of tamping down Harris’ margins, though the campaign won’t specify how many staff members it has in the area.

The Republican push for voters in Philadelphia and other major cities comes as Democrats worry Harris is bleeding support among Black men, who make up a large part of Philly’s electorate. Harris’ campaign has deployed Obama, the nation’s first Black president, as a top surrogate and released policy plans geared toward Black men.

Republicans say they are also looking to increase support among the white working class in Philadelphia, including union members who traditionally voted for Democrats.

» READ MORE: This union leader is the kind of voter who could swing the presidential race

“People are just getting worn down by the economy,” said Mike Bresnan, president of the International Association of Fire Fighters Local 22, which represents Philadelphia firefighters, paramedics, and EMTs.

The national firefighters union was the first to back Biden in 2020, but the local chapter, led by Bresnan, controversially endorsed Trump. A group of members unsuccessfully sought Bresnan’s ouster.

This year, the national union announced it will not endorse either presidential candidate. Neither will the local.

Still, Bresnan said, “I’m seeing a lot of Trump signs.”

To court city voters, the Trump campaign is pushing issues like inflation and crime that are particularly salient in cities and with working-class voters, the campaign official said. Violent crime rates in Philadelphia have declined since their post-pandemic peak, and homicides in the city dropped precipitously this year. Still, much of the messaging is focused on public safety.

» READ MORE: Philly officials criticize Kamala Harris’ campaign for overlooking their role in winning Pennsylvania

The state Republican Party, for example, recently sent to a mailer to Philadelphia voters that attacked Harris’ record as California attorney general and described Trump as the candidate who would deliver “safety and peace.”

Allied groups that support Trump are using similar messaging — much of it negative. The effect could be to dissuade city voters from voting for Harris, even if they don’t cast a ballot for Trump.

A new super PAC called Securing American Greatness, which was run by a former top Trump adviser, sent mail to Philadelphia voters this month that described Harris as “soft-on-crime” and said she would “let criminals out of jail.”

Trump’s ability to gain in the city could hinge on voters considered least likely to vote. That means the results in Philly could come down to get-out-the-vote efforts, which ramp up in the last couple of weeks of election season.

Harris’ campaign has its own turnout operation in the city. She also has thousands of Democratic City Committee members behind her, as well as hundreds of door-knockers deployed by some of the most politically powerful unions in the state.

The Republican operation will be smaller in Philadelphia. Much of the turnout effort is being run by outside groups, like Musk’s America PAC, which is paying people to refer registered voters to a petition and is laser-focused on Pennsylvania.

» READ MORE: Elon Musk talked crime and immigration in Delco on Thursday as his pro-Trump efforts intensify in Pennsylvania

However, some Republicans have groused about the effectiveness of the relatively new group, and argued that sophisticated canvassing operations take years to develop, not a few months. Others have complained that Musk’s at-times volatile leadership style threatens to disrupt the effort.

GOP ward leaders in Philadelphia say the Trump campaign has itself been more active in get-out-the-vote this year than in the past. Pete Smith, a Northeast Philadelphia ward leader, said the campaign is working with local Republicans to recruit volunteers and line up Election Day support. Ward leaders said they’re sharing up-to-date voter registration information with the Trump campaign so it can effectively target voters for turnout.

“The push is really strong,” Smith said. “There’s been a huge support from the Trump campaign.”

Matthew Wolfe, a ward leader in West Philadelphia, said the campaign’s volunteering program has been popular at the grassroots level. He said the state and local committees are closely aligned with the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee, which in the past has been “not necessarily a given.”

“I think we’re going to outproduce what [Trump] did in Philadelphia four years ago,” Wolfe said.

Smith said Republicans are clear-eyed about what’s possible: Incremental growth, he said, would be considered a win.

“We’re not going to win Philadelphia,” he said. “But we’re going to soften the blow and help carry Pennsylvania.”

Inquirer staff writer Julia Terruso contributed to this article.