Harris is making progress with Pa. voters on economic issues, but more still trust Trump

Just two months into her whirlwind Democratic candidacy, Vice President Kamala Harris is making progress on the most important issue to Pennsylvania voters: the economy.

A new Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll shows that while Trump is still favored on the economy, Harris is gaining trust among likely Pennsylvania voters — especially those under the age of 30.

The poll, conducted in the days after the presidential debate held in Philadelphia, found that 51% of likely voters still trust Trump more with the economy compared to 47% of voters who place more trust in Harris. Overall, Harris is leading Trump by nearly 4 percentage points in the state.

And while employment is up and inflation is slowing, the state’s voters are only very slightly more likely to feel the economy is doing fine than they were in May. The poll found that 51% of likely Pennsylvania voters would rate today’s economic conditions as “poor” compared to 52% in a similar poll taken in May.

A bigger change since the spring is the name of the Democrat at the top of the ticket and a larger share of voters trust Harris on the economy than did President Joe Biden, who had earned 42% of likely voters’ confidence on the issue in the May poll.

Barbara Cherry, 64, a cleaner at the Fashion District, who canvasses with her union, SEIU Local 32BJ, said she’s heard potential voters complain about the economy and connect it to the Biden administration.

“They say, ‘When Trump was in office, the economy was better,’” Cherry said. “And I tell people that [Harris is] only the vice president. She don’t have the last say.”

Here are three things the poll showed about how likely voters in the state feel about the economy — and the upcoming election.

More voters between the ages of 18 and 29 trust Harris than trusted Biden with the economy. Just 33% of younger respondents trusted Biden on the issue in May, compared to 55% who trust Harris in the September poll.

On the other side, Trump lost a large share of economic trust among young people, down to 41% in September from 65% in May.

Harris’ historic candidacy energized young voters as evidenced by an explosion of social media memes.

Her economic priorities, which include an expansion of the child tax credit for families with babies younger than 1, and an investment in affordable housing, may also appeal to younger voters. Still, voters aged 30 to 44 are more likely to believe Trump will do a better job with the economy — with 52% favoring the president compared to 46% for Harris on the issue.

In the most recent poll, 48% of voters in the Philly suburbs felt the economy was doing poorly compared to 36% who felt it was doing poorly in May.

But those feelings didn’t appear to diminish growing support for Harris in the suburban counties. In the latest poll, 58% of likely voters in the Philly suburbs said they would vote for Harris if the election was held at the time the survey was taken between Sept. 11 and 16. Back in May, 52% of collar-county respondents said they’d cast a ballot for Biden

Trump’s support stayed steady, with 39% of suburban respondents saying they’d vote for him in both polls. These key counties could swing the election in Harris’ favor if her lead holds.

Rural and small-town Pennsylvanians are still more likely than not to think the economy is doing poorly, but that share has decreased slightly, from 62% in May to 57% in September. This group’s overall support for Trump has stayed relatively steady.

The share of rural and small-town respondents who feel the economy is doing well went up from 18% in May to 22% in September.

These coveted voters, who have been hit especially hard by the changing economic landscape, don’t feel Harris would do any better of a job handling the economy than they felt Biden would in May. But the share of rural and small-town voters who said they’d cast a ballot for her increased by 5 percentage points to 36%, compared to those who said they’d cast a ballot for Biden.