What Donald Trump’s guilty verdict means for his chances in November

Twelve jurors made history on Thursday when they found former President Donald Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records, making him the first American president ever convicted of a crime.

What the moment could signify for the November election is less clear, partly because the situation has never before played out.

Trump’s lawyers are planning an appeal in the hush-money case as he awaits a sentence on July 11 that could include prison time and a fine. Meanwhile, any political fallout in the race, which is in a statistical dead heat, could be meaningful.

Polling has indicated a guilty verdict could erode some support for Trump, who can still run as a convicted felon, in his November rematch with President Joe Biden.

A March Politico and Ipsos survey found that a conviction could cost Trump more than one-third of independents. A February NBC News poll showed that a conviction in the New York trial could trigger a big swing in 18- to 34-year-old voters from Trump to Biden. And an ABC News/Ipsos survey from late April found that 20% of Trump supporters polled would “either reconsider their support (16%) or withdraw it (4%)” in the case of a conviction.

Still, those polls were based on a theoretical event. And until now, none of the four criminal cases against Trump has shifted a tight race. That’s partly because polling also shows that few voters are paying attention to them.

In a recent YouGov/Yahoo News poll, just 16% of respondents said they’d been following the Manhattan trial “very closely,” with one-third saying they were taking a mild interest in the proceedings. More Americans in that poll said the trial made them feel “bored” or “angry” rather than interested.

That’s somewhat surprising given the salacious subject matter — a former adult film star detailing an alleged sexual encounter with a presidential candidate. But Trump has a long history of outrageous behavior, and if the facts of the case have not motivated voters en masse, a conviction might not either.

“I think even his most ardent supporters, given who he is, can believe everything they said he did,” GOP consultant Chris Nicholas said ahead of the verdict.

“Being a felon doesn’t bar you from running for the presidency,” Democratic political consultant Mustafa Rashed said. “He will run on a campaign of grievances and compete hard in Pennsylvania.”

But the wall-to-wall coverage of the conviction and July 11 sentencing hearing will be unavoidable. And the conviction itself — guilty on all counts — makes it easier for Democrats and Biden’s campaign to label Trump as unfit for office. The Biden campaign already started referring to Trump as a “convicted felon” in a statement after the verdict was announced.

“Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain,” Biden-Harris 2024 communications director Michael Tyler said Thursday. “But today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box. Convicted felon or not, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president.”

It’s unlikely Trump will run his campaign much differently than he has been — portraying the criminal cases against him as bogus and using them as unifying rallying calls to his supporters. Within minutes of the verdict, Trump started fundraising off the conviction, describing himself as a “political prisoner.”

“This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt,” Trump said outside the courtroom following the verdict. “This was done by the Biden administration in order to wound or hurt an opponent, a political opponent. And I think it’s just a disgrace. And we’ll keep fighting. We’ll fight till the end, and we’ll win because our country has gone to hell.”

While there’s no evidence Biden had anything to do with the charges brought by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, the narrative of political interference has set in with many voters. A May Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll found 44% of respondents thought Trump would get a fair and impartial trial, most of them Biden supporters. Fifty-two percent of respondents thought he would not get a fair trial, most of them Trump supporters.

Both Democrats and some Republicans urged Americans to respect the verdict on Thursday.

“Regardless of the result, I urge all Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process,” former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, posted on X. “At this dangerously divided moment in our history, all leaders — regardless of party — must not pour fuel on the fire with more toxic partisanship. We must reaffirm what has made this nation great: the rule of law.”

One of Biden’s top surrogates, Sen. Chris Coons (D., Del.), similarly urged “all Americans no matter their party affiliation, to accept and respect the outcome of this trial.”