What last night means for Pa.

Get a version of this article sent directly to your inbox by signing up for our PA 2022 Election Newsletter.

The red wave turned out to be more of a red whimper nationwide. And in Pennsylvania Democrats appeared to dominate – winning the governor and Senate race and holding on in the most competitive congressional races. As we write this newsletter, Democrats are declaring victory in the state House.

🗓 It’s been one day since Election Day.

— Jonathan Tamari, Julia Terruso, (@JonathanTamari, @JuliaTerruso, election@inquirer.com)

If you see this 🔑 in today’s newsletter, that means we’re highlighting our exclusive journalism. You need to be a subscriber to read these stories.

🥇 Josh Shapiro establishes himself as a national figure

In winning by double digits in a swing state, Shapiro scored a victory that will turn heads nationwide.

Some critics — in both parties — note he had the easier task, facing a Republican opponent, State Sen. Doug Mastriano, who took far-right positions and barely raised enough money to advertise on TV.

But Shapiro, the state attorney general, still had to do the work to prevail, and few expect the methodical, ambitious Democrat from Montgomery County to stop his striving at the governor’s mansion. His supporters are already projecting him as a future presidential candidate.

A closing note in his victory speech might double as a message to political watchers: “Tonight we showed how to build a coalition to win a race in a big way.”

🔵 John Fetterman does what he said he would

With his tattoos, hoodies, and unpolished style, Fetterman looked like a different kind of Democrat. He said he could show political strength where other Democrats struggled. And he did.

Even though Fetterman’s main policy ideas largely match those of other Democratic senators, and even though he wasn’t able to campaign in rural counties as much as he had promised after his stroke in May, Fetterman outperformed other Democrats in areas that gave the GOP huge margins in previous years.

Democrats who have seen Fetterman in action said that for years, as lieutenant governor and in the Democratic primary, he had built his standing in rural areas.

The result: In deep-red Westmoreland County, Fetterman was poised to win about 39% of the vote, compared with 35% for Joe Biden in 2020. In Lackawanna County, home to Scranton, Biden’s birthplace, Fetterman won about 57% of the vote, compared with Biden’s 54%. He racked up a nearly 14,000-vote margin there, up from Biden’s 9,657. In Erie, a bellwether swing county, Fetterman was winning about 53% of the vote, while Biden won a hair under 50%.

It helped that Fetterman had a seemingly perfect foil in Republican Mehmet Oz for white, working-class areas that had flocked to Donald Trump. Fetterman pilloried him as an out-of-touch rich guy — from New Jersey, no less.

Fetterman didn’t actually win back those red areas, but he didn’t have to: He cut Democratic losses and still compiled big wins in the big cities and suburbs.

🟣 Suburban worry for the GOP

Republicans, though, were less worried about Fetterman’s rural showing and more concerned about the GOP’s consistent losses in the big suburbs.

Their argument: Democrats probably can’t sustain their improved showing in rural places, but the suburbs have been long moving left, and despite Oz’s clear efforts, he couldn’t move them much, if at all. That presents a problem considering how many votes are in places like Montgomery and Delaware Counties.

“If you want to be a majority party in Pennsylvania, you have to win the suburbs, and Oz got drubbed in the suburbs,” said Mark Harris, a Republican strategist who helped Sen. Pat Toomey win in 2016 in part by limiting his losses in those suburbs. “It’s not just Oz. Republicans generally got drubbed, and that is a significant problem that has to be solved for.”

🏛 Democrats appear to hang on in tight U.S. House races

Pennsylvania Democrats didn’t just win at the top of the ticket Tuesday – they held all three of the most competitive U.S. House races in the state.

The Associated Press on Wednesday called the key races in Democrats’ favor.

Rep. Matt Cartwright won reelection in a Scranton-area seat in a district Trump won, according to AP. Democrat Chris Deluzio won the swing seat in the Pittsburgh suburbs being vacated by Rep. Conor Lamb (who unsuccessfully ran for Senate).

And Rep. Susan Wild won her Lehigh Valley district.

Democrats have defied historical trends that work against the party in power, and completed a sweep of all the top races in Pennsylvania after also winning the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests.

🪐 Pennsylvania is the center of the political universe

Tuesday’s blowout results in Florida might have been the death knell of the Sunshine State as a true swing state.

The upshot: Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral College votes are now the most valuable battleground heading into 2024.

The state will be showered with attention by whoever the parties run for president. And if you just loved all the political ads that came your way the last few months, you’re in luck!

🗳 Democrats avert Mastriano fears; Republicans don’t

When Doug Mastriano won the GOP nomination for governor, both parties were filled with different kinds of dread.

Democrats feared that an election-denying Republican could gain control of Pennsylvania’s election oversight ahead of 2024.

“Truth and facts and logic and reason and basic decency are on the ballot,” former President Barack Obama said Saturday at a Philadelphia rally for Democrats. “Democracy itself is on the ballot.”

Republicans worried Mastriano would lose so badly he could hurt the entire ticket.

Democrats averted their concern. Republicans were left to rue Mastriano’s low-budget campaign that appealed mostly to far-right voters, without providing a boost from the top of the ticket. And the GOP faced potentially dire consequences, with Democrats in striking distance of flipping the state House for the first time in more than a decade.

⬇️ A bad night for Trump

Former President Donald Trump played a big role in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. During a contentious GOP primary he endorsed his fellow celebrity, Oz, helping him win a race decided by fewer than 1,000 votes.

He then rallied twice for Oz to try to pull him ahead of Fetterman.

But Trump’s pick flopped in a race Republicans were desperate to win to hold the Senate. And the gubernatorial candidate crafted in Trump’s image, Mastriano, did even worse.

With Trump seemingly poised to announce another presidential campaign any day, he had a bad night in a state that could decide the 2024 race.

🙌 A win for representation: Pennsylvania elected Summer Lee to Congress on Tuesday. She becomes the first Black woman ever to represent the state in the chamber and joins Rep. Dwight Evans (D., Phila.) as just the second Black Congress member currently representing the state in Washington.

State Rep. Austin Davis also becomes the first Black person to be elected lieutenant governor. The McKeesport native is now the second consecutive lieutenant governor from right outside of Pittsburgh. Julia drove through his hometown on the way to watch Fetterman vote in his hometown, Braddock.

💬 “We jammed them up. We held the line.”

— John Fetterman, addressing a crowd in Pittsburgh after the race was called for him after 1 a.m. Wednesday.

Thanks for following along! Julia has to drive home from Pittsburgh (send podcast recs), and Jon has to catch an Amtrak back to D.C. We will be back next week with a final edition of analysis!