📊 About that Harris lead | PA 2024 Newsletter
And a trip to a former Pa. coal town.
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📅 There are 45 days until Election Day.
In this edition:
“It’s definitely mixed here:” These Pennsylvania former manufacturing towns are some of the least politically predictable, but potentially most determinative, in the state.
The Philly effect: Philly is, in many ways, fueling a rebound for Vice President Kamala Harris. But there’s some nuance to her support in the city — and even some potential red flags.
Big money: Why Republicans are expected to more than double Democrats’ spending on TV and streaming ads in the Pennsylvania attorney general’s race.
—Julia Terruso, Anna Orso, Fallon Roth, Katie Bernard, Gillian McGoldrick, Oona Goodin-Smith, pa2024@inquirer.com
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This week, The Inquirer partnered with the New York Times and Siena College to publish a poll of 1,082 likely Pennsylvania voters, conducted following the debate between Sept. 11 and Sept. 16. National politics reporter Julia Terruso takes a closer look behind those numbers:
The post-debate news out of Pennsylvania looks positive for Harris, but look under the hood, and it’s still a neck and neck race here.
While Harris has made up ground in the state, particularly with voters who appeared to be souring on Democrats when President Joe Biden was the nominee, she faces challenges despite her polling lead:
Harris’ nearly 4-point lead is a rebound from when Biden was the nominee, but not much different from a New York Times survey of the state in August, before the debate, suggesting her winning performance on Sept. 10 may not be what’s moving the needle with voters.
Her support includes 60% of voters under 29, a group that is also the least likely to show up to vote and feeling the least enthusiastic about the election. Her campaign’s GOTV operation will be key with that group.
Despite a debate closely-watched in Pennsylvania, nearly a quarter of voters here say they still need more information on Harris.
More voters here describe Harris as “too liberal,” than describe Trump as “too conservative.” That could matter as the elusive moderate undecided voters start to make up their minds.
While Pennsylvania could very well determine the election, the national polls are looking more favorable for Trump, an inconsistency that has pollsters scratching their heads.
Trump polls better on the No. 1 issue, the economy, though Harris has also made up some ground there.
When it comes to fracking, Pennsylvanians also trust Trump more, the poll showed. And on abortion rights, Pennsylvania voters overwhelmingly trust Harris more.
Nationally, Trump’s favorability is up a few points, though trailing Harris. It remained even in Pennsylvania.
So what does it all mean? This race will likely come down to the margins in three states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. And the weekly visits to the Keystone State by both campaigns will likely become even more frequent as the campaigns transition from persuasion to turnout operations.
On Saturday, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, is expected to rally in Berks County, about an hour away from Allentown, where Democratic VP candidate Tim Walz is slated to appear. And on Monday, Trump returns to the state for the first time since his 9/11 anniversary visit to Shanksville for a rally in Indiana County.
🚙 Like the exorbitant ad spending here, The Inquirer politics team’s mileage reimbursements are reaching an all-time high.
The latest
📊 U.S. Sen. Bob Casey has a strong lead over his Republican challenger Dave McCormick, according to the latest Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll. But the poll also shows there’s reason to believe the race could tighten significantly before Election Day.
🎙️This week in Philly, Harris said she’s not treating Black male voters as a monolith amid signs Trump has made inroads with the demographic: “I’m working to earn their vote, not assuming I’m going to have it because I’m Black.”
🏙️ Biden was also back in town this week to speak at the National Historically Black Colleges and Universities Conference, where he condemned the “lies and hate” being spread about Haitian migrants.
⛪ Trump was slated to make a stop in Bucks County this weekend with the president of Poland — but on Thursday, his campaign said he would no longer be attending.
⛰️ In Nanticoke, Pa., national politics is either plastered on your porch or a topic best avoided. And it’s the type of place that could decide the election as Trump looks to shore up support with white working class voters, while Harris tries to replicate Biden’s 2020 gains, and some voters say they’re disenchanted by both parties.
💸 Pennsylvania’s richest man is behind the political action committee spending big on ads to elect the Republican candidate for state attorney general — totaling approximately $6 million.
✍️ A Bucks County Republican and Chester County Democrat were among the 32 lawmakers who signed a pledge last week vowing to certify the 2024 election results and attend the future president’s inauguration — no matter the winner.
The claim: “[Charleroi] experienced a 2,000% increase in the population of Haitian migrants under Kamala Harris… It’s a small town,” Trump said in Tucson, Ariz. last week. “All of a sudden they got thousands of people. The schools are scrambling to hire translators for the influx of students who don’t speak not a word of English, costing local taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars.”
✖️ The check: False.
After promoting untrue and xenophobic claims about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio during last week’s Philly presidential debate, Trump set his sights on Charleroi — a small borough in Western Pennsylvania — to spread more falsehoods. While the Haitian immigrant population has grown in Charleroi, the community is “not a burden” on the local government’s resources, said Joe Manning, the borough manager, and the hiring of English Language Learner teachers is “not necessarily” costing local taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars, said the superintendent of the Charleroi Area School District. Trump also said that the town is “virtually bankrupt” and that the Haitians are driving an increase in crime, neither of which are true.
🎤 We’re now passing the mic to Philadelphia City Hall reporter Anna Orso for a look what The Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll showed when it came to the candidates, the economy, and Philly:
Conventional wisdom suggests Trump should be ahead in this race given a Democrat is in the White House and voters have a pretty low impression of the country’s economic condition.
Only 22% of likely voters who responded to the poll we released this week said the economy is in good condition. That should, in theory, raise alarm bells for Democrats. As the saying goes: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Or is it? Harris has a slight lead in Pennsylvania, according to this poll, and voters only favor Trump over Harris to handle the economy by a few percentage points. The vice president picked up considerable ground on the issue compared to Biden before he dropped out of the race.
The other explanation is Philadelphia. Residents in the commonwealth’s largest city are definitely down on the economy — only a quarter of likely Philadelphia voters said the economy is in good condition.
But 72% of likely voters in deep-blue Philadelphia trust Harris more than Trump to handle the economy. That’s a whopping 49-point edge for Harris on the issue over the former president.
📈 Montgomery County Board of Elections: After delays in the April primary resulted in mail ballots making it to voters just days before the election, Montgomery County was ahead of the game this month. The county was the first in the Philadelphia area — and possibly the state — to print and distribute mail ballots. On Tuesday, the day after the Pennsylvania Department of State approved the candidate list, voters in Montgomery County were able to show up at the county government building to receive and submit mail ballots. Montco’s speed, however, raised eyebrows. The Republican National Committee sent a letter accusing the county of skipping the required logic and accuracy testing.
📉 Josh Shapiro: The Pennsylvania governor went to a Rutter’s in Perry County this week in celebration of ready-to-drink cocktails’ availability in gas stations, restaurants and grocery stores under a new state law. The first-term Democratic governor, side-by-side with GOP lawmakers, grabbed himself some Surfsides and talked about freedom, Spotlight PA’s Stephen Caruso reported. But Shapiro made a major error (in addition to going to a Rutter’s instead of a Wawa) when he went to check out. The 51-year-old forgot his ID, so couldn’t buy his Surfside spiked lemonade. (Despite the embarrassment, Shapiro is still riding high, as The Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll shows he polls higher than Harris, Trump, and even Taylor Swift in Pennsylvania.)
📸 Scenes from the campaign trail
🎅 Overheard this week:
“I think women in particular, we are the mothers of civilization. We gotta protect the guys and the girls and the little ones and the older ones. And I think it’s about time for us to get more involved. Plus, I like her running mate. I like that gentleman. Number one, he looks like Santa Claus.” — Gloria Johnson, a Philadelphia voter who participated in the poll, on the importance of the female voters in this election and her thoughts on Walz.
What we’re watching next
➡️ Whether other New Jersey counties will follow suit in banning the “county line” from their ballots, which Senate candidate Andy Kim has called “the start of a new era of politics.”
➡️ And the campaigns are coming back to Pennsylvania — that is, if they ever really left. Vance is coming to Berks County, Walz is expected to rally with two Latino actors in Allentown, second gentleman Doug Emhoff will be hyping up volunteers in Bucks County, and Trump will hold a rally on the western side of the state.
👩💻 One last data thing: If you can’t get enough of polls in Pennsylvania, we’ve got good news for you. Between now and Election Day, you can check back to this page to find the latest updates.
Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you again next week. 👋