A TIMELINE OF PA'S BONKERS SENATE PRIMARY

The shockwaves start early. It isn’t necessarily surprising that Toomey, the state’s incumbent Republican, isn’t going to run for reelection. But it is stunning to announce the decision so early, before the 2020 presidential race is even over, and that he passes on a run for governor. Taking the most prominent Republican in the state off the field ensures wide open primaries in both the Senate and gubernatorial campaigns, and draws an army of ambitious politicians who see opportunity in both races.

Fetterman’s early launch starts the Senate campaign in earnest, more than 15 months before primary day, setting the stage for a long, drawn out primary. Over the coming weeks 15 other candidates from both major parties join the fray.

The GOP campaign is only a few months old, but former President Donald Trump jumps in early. His endorsement of Sean Parnell, a decorated Army veteran close with Donald Trump Jr., immediately establishes a GOP front-runner. But it doesn’t last long.

A week after Trump’s nod, GOP rival Jeff Bartos aims to stop Parnell’s momentum with a political haymaker. He points to two temporary protective orders once issued against Parnell at the request of Parnell’s estranged wife. Bartos says the existence of those orders makes Parnell “unelectable.” The orders were only temporary and had been expunged, but they open a window into a dispute that would soon sink Parnell.

An open trial as Parnell and his wife fought for custody of their children becomes a turning point. In tearful testimony, she accuses Parnell of choking her until she bit him to escape, of pinning her down, and calling her a “whore” and “piece of s—” during frequent bouts of rage. She also accuses him of twice striking their children. Parnell flatly denies the accusations in a statement, but because of the trial schedule, it would be a full week before he takes the stand and has a chance to fully tell his side of the story.

Parnell unequivocally denies the accusations. “Did you ever choke your wife?” his attorney asks during their custody hearing. “Never,” Parnell says. His statements, also under oath, set up competing accounts that would have to be resolved by the judge in the custody case. His campaign argues a favorable decision would show the abuse claims aren’t true. But it doesn’t happen.

The judge rules Parnell’s wife was “the more credible witness” and that he had committed “some acts of abuse in the past.” Within hours, Parnell drops out of the primary, though he still says he was falsely accused. He has been the front-runner for less than three months, but his departure leaves a wide-open GOP field, opening the door for other new candidates.

Accomplished cardiothoracic surgeon. Patent holder. TV star. Senator? Mehmet Oz, better known as daytime TV’s “Dr. Oz,” adds another jolt to the race when he launches his campaign, bringing star power and immense personal wealth to a GOP contest that has yet to establish a firm standout.

McCormick, an Army veteran, George W. Bush administration alum, and hedge fund CEO, rounds out the field when he joins the campaign, bringing insider support, Trump ties, and wealth to rival Oz’s. The two financial heavyweights will dominate political attention for months to come — until a surprise rival rises up to challenge them.

It is only January, but the two ultra-wealthy Republicans spend like it’s the homestretch, much of it coming from their own pockets, or from similarly wealthy allies. The TV barrage ensures that the GOP primary campaign dominates the airwaves for months before primary day, and overshadows other candidates in both parties.

It is the elephant in the room for months, until U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb brings it up directly: a 2013 incident in which Fetterman had grabbed his shotgun and chased a Black man in Braddock, where Fetterman was then mayor. State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, a Philadelphia Democrat also running for Senate and the only Black candidate in the Democratic field, adds his voice, too. Fetterman says he was responding to the sound of gunshots, but the man he held at gunpoint was unarmed and uninvolved in any incident that day. It’s the most direct challenge to the Democratic front-runner, and the stiffest test of his lead.

McCormick’s attacks on Oz do significant damage, challenging the celebrity doctor’s conservative credentials, and McCormick takes a lead in public polls. Then comes a pivotal Saturday night announcement: Trump endorses his fellow TV star. Both Oz and McCormick had lobbied for the former president’s support. With Trump’s nod, Oz suddenly has a shield against attacks on his conservative bonafides, and McCormick’s claims of being an “America First” Republican take a hit.

After months dominated by Oz, McCormick, and their money, a candidate running on a shoestring budget suddenly rockets into the race’s top tier: Kathy Barnette. Her late surge shakes up the final days of what had been a two-person contest, as journalists, her rivals, and operatives in both parties scramble to vet her background. National reporters suddenly descend on her events, and no one seems to know whether she’d win, which candidate she might pull votes from in a tight race, and how she might shape up as a general election candidate if she becomes the GOP nominee.

With little explanation, the Democratic front-runner is absent for much of the final stretch of campaigning, a time when candidates usually race across the state to closing events. Then, on Sunday afternoon, fewer than 48 hours before polls would open, Fetterman’s campaign explains: he had suffered a stroke. Fetterman goes on to win anyway, but as more detail comes out, the stroke turns out to be far more serious than they first let on. Fetterman hasn’t been back at a public event since.

Fetterman completes a dominant wire-to-wire showing in the Democratic primary, winning all 67 counties. But the GOP primary is excruciatingly tight. After nearly all the votes are counted, Oz and McCormick are separated by around one-tenth of 1 percentage point, triggering an automatic recount. The recount is formally announced May 26, ensuring no winner is declared until more than three weeks after primary day, and extending the campaign battle to the legal realm.

As Oz and McCormick scramble for every vote, a federal court ruling in a different election, from Lehigh County in 2021, throws in a twist: the court says mail ballots that voters failed to date should be counted if they arrive at election offices on time, despite state law to the contrary. The decision opens the door to another swath of votes potentially being added to the 2022 Senate vote count, and sets off a pitched legal battle as the McCormick team urges their counting and the Oz team, along with the state and national Republican parties, argue against it. Pennsylvania’s election laws are again in the national spotlight.

In a race that already seemingly has everything, the U.S. Supreme Court joins in. Justice Samuel Alito issues an order staying the lower court order on undated ballots, saying the Supreme Court plans to weigh in. That adds new uncertainty to the ongoing recount, because more than 800 undated GOP mail ballots are again in limbo.

Weeks after characterizing his stroke as a “bump in the campaign trail,” Fetterman releases more detail in statements from him and his doctor. Fetterman says he “nearly died,” and also that he ignored medical advice after first being diagnosed with atrial fibrillation in 2017. He also reveals that he’s been diagnosed with cardiomyopathy. While the doctor says Fetterman should be able to campaign and serve if he now follows recommendations, the LG says he needs more time to heal before he can get back on the campaign trail. He doesn’t provide a timeline for his return.

And suddenly, it’s over. It’s clear the recount isn’t going to pull McCormick ahead, but he has several legal maneuvers pending that could draw out the fight. Instead, he abruptly schedules a “recount party” in Pittsburgh, takes the stage, and acknowledges Oz has won. With two major pieces of breaking news on a Friday afternoon, the primary effectively ends, and the general election begins.

Counties complete the recount in the GOP Senate race. The state is expected to officially certify Oz’s win.