Could Josh Shapiro replace Joe Biden? Unlikely but here’s what all the buzz is about.

Josh Shapiro is in the conversation — but he’s light-years away from the top of the 2024 presidential ballot.

As Democratic panic continues following Biden’s bad debate performance June 27, Shapiro’s name has been placed on potential short lists — even if the chances he replaces Biden on the ticket are extremely slim. While the Pennsylvania governor has shown no outward signs of vying for the job, his name keeps coming up.

Shapiro is a logical candidate for Democrats to mention in Pennsylvania, where he remains its most popular elected official in a critical battleground state. While he’s been largely untested on the national stage, he’s listed with some politicians whose political resumes and national profiles make them more likely replacements — if Biden makes the extraordinary move of stepping aside.

“There’s a case to be made for Josh,” said Biden fundraiser Alan Kessler. “You don’t win in November without winning Pennsylvania. Does it have any basis in reality? No. This is not about Josh or [California Gov.] Gavin Newsom or any of the others. This is about what is realistic.”

For a replacement to even be considered, Biden would need to decline the nomination, which the White House stated Wednesday he is not considering. But the New York Times reported he’s discussed the possibility with a close ally. Shapiro was to attend Wednesday night’s meeting with Biden and other Democratic governors about the future of his campaign.

Should Biden decline the nomination, many in the party see Vice President Kamala Harris as the obvious replacement. She’d inherit the campaign infrastructure and funding. She’s been a loyal part of the administration for three years and is often the go-to voice to defend Biden on the trail. Passing over her could alienate her supporters, including some Black voters who have already drifted away from Biden in recent polling.

“She’s the vice president,” Kessler said. “She’s pining to be president. There’s nothing anyone could offer her that would satisfy her other than the presidency.”

If not Harris, many strategists see more likely picks among governors who have been elected to two terms, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker. U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg ran for president in 2020 and has remained in the spotlight. Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky, who won reelection in 2023, has also gained national attention for his unlikely success in the traditionally red state.

Shapiro’s name has also come up as a potential vice presidential pick, should Harris be the nominee.

Shapiro doesn’t seem as if he’s angling for the nomination. He’s gone on news shows post debate, defending the president and saying he will “fight like hell” to reelect Biden, while rejecting questions about a potential replacement. Even when offered the opportunity to speak off-record, members of his administration are disciplined and have declined to speculate on the topic.

“He’s got this attention without being overtly seeking the attention,” said Mike Mikus, a longtime Democratic strategist in the state.

Conversations with more than a dozen Democratic lawmakers and operatives around the state largely found consensus around Shapiro: It’s unlikely to happen but it makes sense that he’s in the mix. Still, being part of the conversation now could boost Shapiro’s clout in 2028 or beyond.

The halls of Harrisburg buzzed over the last week, with Democrats whispering about potential picks to replace Biden — and the small chance that Shapiro could be that guy.

“We’re all Joe Biden fans. But the alternative is too scary to contemplate,” one top state Democratic lawmaker said last week, urging that Shapiro replace Biden on the top of the presidential ticket.

Nationally, Shapiro is seen as a stable choice.

Shapiro, 51, is a former state lawmaker, Montgomery County commissioner, and state attorney general who has been credited for his role in building up the Democratic Party in Philadelphia’s collar counties. He first rose to national recognition after he won election to be attorney general in 2016 — the year former President Donald Trump won the state. Shapiro also gained national attention in 2020 for his defense of Pennsylvania’s presidential election results against Trump.

He cleared the Democratic field to run for governor in the state in 2022, when several Democrats were eyeing the job. That showed an understanding of how to coalition-build in the party and negotiate with different Democratic constituencies in the state.

Shapiro, Pennsylvania’s third Jewish governor, has continued to raise his national profile, from his outspokenness for Israel and his intervention in debates about antisemitism on college campuses to his quick rebuild last summer of a collapsed portion of I-95. The country has never elected a Jewish president or vice president, but many see Shapiro as someone who could change that.

Shapiro’s favorability stands above Biden’s and Trump’s in Pennsylvania and he has the built-in argument that his name at the top of the ticket likely carries the state for Democrats. Presidential elections are no longer won nationwide — but in six swing states.

National polling conducted this week shows Shapiro trailing Trump 44% to 48%, a similar performance to Buttigieg, Newsom, and Whitmer. Both Harris and Biden do a little bit better in the theoretical polls, getting support from about 45% of likely voters against Trump’s 48%.

Even some Republicans saw the possibility of a Shapiro candidacy as unlikely — but acknowledged he’d be tough to beat in Pennsylvania.

Christian Nascimento, who chairs the Montgomery County GOP, said Shapiro could energize already heavily engaged voters in his native Montgomery County, the state’s third most populous.

Shapiro’s careful political style and demeanor also came up in conversations with Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania.

“He would be an awfully solid pick that you could make a lot of arguments for,” a former Senate staffer said. “I think he’s someone who D.C. Democrats would breathe a sigh of relief to have on the ticket, especially in a crazy situation like this.”

The same staffer said he thought the optics of passing over Harris for a white male would be a potentially disastrous decision for Democrats.

Shapiro’s careful political style may be the best argument for why he likely isn’t interested in this highly unconventional election year.

“He is a methodical planner,” said Bruce L. Castor Jr., a longtime Republican office holder who served with Shapiro on the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners and represented Trump during his second impeachment trial. “I believe that he would want to have his national organization built, have his very good record embossed or embellished with six or seven years as governor of a big state. He would not want to jump in without all the stuff lined up. He can do that four years from now; he can’t do it now.”

Skeptics question how well Shapiro is known outside of Pennsylvania. One Pennsylvania Democrat compared the scenario to when Doug Burgum, the Republican governor of North Dakota, ran for president — though Shapiro, as a swing state governor, has a higher profile than Burgum did.

“It’s an easy answer for Pennsylvanians and frankly folks who think it scores them points with the governor but I think it’s bull ....” a Western Pennsylvania Democratic operative said. “I don’t think anyone outside of the state has heard of Josh Shapiro.”

While Shapiro won big in Pennsylvania, beating State Sen. Doug Mastriano by 14 points and driving up Democratic margins in Trump strongholds, he also faced a weak challenger.

“Thinking [that] beating Doug Mastriano means you can run for president is kind of like winning a Little League game and thinking you’ll compete in the World Series,” the Western Pennsylvania strategist added.

Shapiro is the only swing state governor with a divided state government, something he’s pointed to as a sign of his ability to work across the aisle but he only has a few years of accomplishments under his belt.

Shapiro was slated to participate in the meeting with other Democratic governors and Biden on Wednesday virtually, as he continues to negotiate his second-ever budget deal. The state budget was due on Sunday for the new fiscal year beginning July 1, and lawmakers seemed hopeful that they’d have a final product by the end of the weekend.

“Let’s see him pass two budgets before talking about him being president,” a Philadelphia-based Democratic operative said.

Staff writer Katie Bernard contributed to this article.