What’s up with the $5,000 DOGE stimulus checks?

Billionaire Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has made big promises to slash what he is calling wasteful and excessive government spending. He and President Donald Trump have broached the topic of distributing those savings to taxpayers through widespread stimulus checks.

James Fishback, CEO of the investment firm Azoria Partners and self-proclaimed “anti-woke” investor, first floated the idea on X back in February, suggesting $5,000 checks for taxpayers. Musk responded to the tweet: “Will check with the President.” A day later, Trump said he was looking into potential stimulus checks.

Trump has since acknowledged the idea on several occasions during public addresses.

But how likely is it to actually happen? Here’s what we know.

Trump signed a $2 trillion bipartisan stimulus package in 2020 in response to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The package included stimulus checks, or Economic Impact Payments, ranging from $1,200 to $2,400 depending on marital tax status along with an extra $500 for each qualifying child.

The first round of payments began rolling out in April 2020 and a second batch was issued in December 2020. In 2021, a third round of payments for qualifying individuals was issued under President Joe Biden as part of the American Rescue Plan.

First and foremost, there would have to be funding. For DOGE to give “20% of DOGE savings” to citizens, it would need to indeed save $2 trillion.

The likelihood of reaching that goal is questionable — even Musk himself said it might not be realistic, calling the goal a “best-case outcome” in January.

“I think if we try for $2 trillion, we’ve got a good shot at getting $1 [trillion],” Musk said.

From there, Congress would need to approve a plan to disburse the funds to taxpayers, which also seems like an uphill battle at the moment.

When asked about the DOGE proposal last month, House Speaker Mike Johnson rolled his eyes, according to USA Today.

“Well, look. I mean, politically that would be great for us, you know, it gives everybody a check,” Johnson (R., La.) told Newsmax host Rob Finnerty at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). “But if you think about our core principles, right, fiscal responsibility is what we do as conservatives. That’s our brand. And we have a $36 trillion federal debt, we have a giant deficit that we’re contending with. I think we need to pay down the credit card, right?”

Elaine Kamarck, senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, told the Associated Press that DOGE will not achieve enough savings to issue checks “big enough” to create inflation. She called the idea of a DOGE dividend “ridiculous.”

The nearly 40% of contracts DOGE has terminated so far are unlikely to produce substantial government savings, raising concerns about DOGE’s effectiveness, Newsweek reported.

And going off DOGE’s own reporting, the agency’s website says it has saved $115 billion, which would mean American taxpayers would receive only about $142 apiece if checks were distributed today. A Congressional Budget Office report shows the federal deficit was 5% higher in February than the same time last year.

Fishback, the investor with the initial idea, said the plan would distribute $5,000 checks to about 79 million American households.

Additional details are limited.

Newsweek reported Wednesday that Fishback said legislation is “coming very soon” for a stimulus package.

“I have ongoing discussions with folks in the administration, and I’ve had ongoing discussions with folks on [Capitol] Hill. I spoke with six U.S. senators this past week and continue those conversations to get feedback,” Fishback said. “And it’s been overwhelmingly positive. The next step is there’s going to be a bill, and the bill is coming very soon.”

Though the stimulus package has received pushback from GOP lawmakers, including Johnson, Fishback remains optimistic. The investor told Newsweek that he understood Johnson’s concerns but believes the stimulus checks could regain taxpayer trust.

Still, it’s unclear if Fishback’s proposal will actually be introduced as a bill in Congress. If it were to be brought forward, it would need legislative approval. From there, the earliest potential timeline for payouts would be the summer of 2026, according to Newsweek.