Janelle Stelson’s fundraising prowess has shifted her odds against Scott Perry

The race between U.S. Rep. Scott Perry and his Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson is now a toss-up, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report announced on Friday.

Cook Political Report credited the new toss-up rating to Stelson’s “spending onslaught,” raising $2.85 million in the most recent fundraising quarter compared to Perry’s $900,000.

Stelson won a crowded Democratic primary to challenge Perry, the hard-right Republican incumbent, in the 10th Congressional District. Until joining the race roughly a year ago, Stelson worked as a longtime local news anchor in the Central Pennsylvania district, which includes Dauphin County and parts of Cumberland and York Counties.

Her familiarity with voters has helped make the race competitive, as has Perry’s string of controversies.

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“The congressional race now looks neck-and-neck — and while the political environment should still favor Perry, his unique vulnerabilities, coupled with Democrats’ spending advantage, moves this race from Lean Republican to Toss Up,” the report said.

The new rating suggests that Stelson, a former local news anchor, is seen as having the ability to seriously tip the scales in a district that’s been safely held by Perry, an election denialist and ally of former President Donald Trump.

Perry, the former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, tried to halt certification of Pennsylvania’s 2020 election results, voted against awarding the Congressional Gold Metal to officers who defended the Capitol during the Jan. 6 insurrection, and had his phone seized as part of the FBI’s investigation into attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

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The heated congressional race landed on Democrats’ coveted “Red to Blue” list earlier this year, signaling significant investment from the Democratic Party to flip the seat in a departure from the 2022 race against Perry in which Democrat Shamaine Daniels didn’t have as much support from the party.

Republicans said earlier this year that Democrats would be wasting their money with their optimism about the race. But top Republicans have recently come to prop Perry up as Stelson’s challenge remains a threat.

Stelson’s seriousness has been clear to analysts since before she won her primary. Cook Political Report notably shifted the race’s rating from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” in December because of Stelson’s entrance into race, noting her regional name recognition and impressive fundraising haul. This latest rating shift shows she’s been able to maintain that momentum.

The Atlantic recently published a piece calling Perry “the nation’s most vulnerable MAGA Republican.”

Stelson has had her eyes on taking down Perry since the day she joined the primary roughly a year ago. Stelson and her surrogates have been making the case to voters that Perry is too extreme for the district, not just through his 2020 election conspiracy involvement, but also through his day-to-day policies as a representative. For example, Perry sponsored the national Life at Conception Act bill, which is inherently anti-abortion.

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Perry has tried to paint Stelson as too far to the left, but has also pointed out that she was recently a Republican herself. Even as Trump is poised to win the district again, both public and private polling shows Perry underperforming the former president, Cook Political Report reported.

Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat who was able to bring together bipartisan support for his 2022 win, carried the district by 12 points, and Sen. John Fetterman lost the district by just one point, Cook Political Report pointed out, showing that district voters have shown a willingness to split the ticket and give Democrats a try.