Trump was leading Biden in an extremely tight Pennsylvania poll shortly before the assassination attempt
Harris polled slightly better than Biden against Trump, but Trump’s lead against both Democrats fell within the poll’s margin of error.
A New York Times/Siena College poll taken shortly before the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump showed Trump leading President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania with likely voters by 3 percentage points, within the margin of error.
The poll also showed a desire among Democrats and independents to replace Biden on the ticket.
In a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Harris polled slightly better than Biden in Pennsylvania but still fell behind Trump by 1 percentage point, also within the margin of error plus/minus 3.8 percentage points.
While various candidates have been rumored to be considered as potential replacements for Biden amid concerns over the president’s age, Harris has been seen as the most natural replacement because she’s already on the ticket and serving as vice president.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between July 9 and 11, serve as a reminder that Pennsylvania remains a critical swing state for both candidates. Trump won the state in 2016 by slightly less than 1 percentage point and Biden won in 2020 by slightly more than 1 percentage point.
The results of the Biden-Trump matchup show an ongoing statistical tie in Pennsylvania, mirroring the results of a May Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll. It would be “nearly impossible” for Biden to win the election without Pennsylvania, according to a Times analysis. Biden’s campaign has acknowledged that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the “clearest pathway” to victory for the Democrat.
Beyond the race being extremely tight, the poll reflected the national conversation about whether Biden is the best candidate for the Democratic Party, and showed that independents are dissatisfied with both options.
Among likely voters, 43% of self-identifying Democrats in Pennsylvania wanted Biden to drop out and allow a different candidate to be nominated, and 63% of self-identifying independents said the same. On the other side, only 14% of self-identifying Republicans said the same about Trump, while 49% of self-identifying independents said Trump should drop out.
Democratic respondents who want Biden to step down skewed younger and more educated than those who wanted him to remain the nominee, according to the Times.
The age of both candidates has been an ongoing conversation throughout the campaign, with increased scrutiny on how Biden is aging. Among likely voters, 59% of self-described Democrats in Pennsylvania said Biden, 81, is too old to run for president, but just 19% of self-described Republicans said the same about Trump, 78. Self-described independents were more critical of each candidate, with 77% viewing Biden as too old and 48% viewing Trump as too old.
Concerns over Biden’s age escalated after his poor debate performance, and a Times/Siena College poll taken after the debate showed Trump leading Biden by six points nationally.
The percentage of likely voters who view Trump and Biden very favorably in Pennsylvania remained the same from the May poll, with Biden seeing 20% and Trump seeing 29%. But Biden had a slight decrease, from 21% to 19%, in likely voters who viewed him somewhat favorably, while Trump saw a slight increase, from 16% to 17%, in likely voters who viewed him that way.
Overall, Trump’s favorability among likely Pennsylvania voters remained at 45% from May to July, and Biden’s favorability decreased from 42% to 39%. Likely voters who viewed Biden unfavorably went up slightly, while those who viewed Trump unfavorably went down slightly.
Still, 53% of the likely electorate in Pennsylvania thought Trump, who was convicted of 34 felonies in New York in May for falsifying business records to conceal a hush money payment to a porn star during the 2016 election and has faced criminal investigations into his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, had committed “serious federal crimes.”
Harris is overall viewed slightly more favorably than Biden, with 42% favorability among likely Pennsylvania voters. Her net unfavorability lies at 55%, which is lower than Biden’s 59%. That being said, more likely voters viewed Harris as “somewhat favorable” (24%) than very favorable (18%).
Harris’ favorability was slightly stronger than Biden’s overall among Black voters, younger voters, and women, important voting blocs for a Democratic win. But much of her support came from infrequent voters who may not be reliable at showing up to the polls, according to the Times.
Biden was able to garner more support among Black voters in Pennsylvania. But he also lost some support in the suburbs, according to The Times. Both groups are important for a Democratic victory.
The poll also showed that Biden is in trouble in Virginia, a state he won by 10 points in 2020. The July poll showed Biden just 3 points ahead of Trump in that state, showing another tight race within the margin of error. A Republican presidential candidate hasn’t won Virginia since 2004.