Poll shows New Jersey governor’s race is wide open, especially among Democrats
The Democratic candidates for New Jersey governor lack name recognition, and there's no clear winner in the 2025 primary.
Candidates across the board for New Jersey governor are struggling with name recognition, leaving an open — and crowded — playing field less than five months before the primary election, new poll numbers suggest.
An Emerson College Poll conducted Jan. 18 to 21 with New York City-based PIX11 and The Hill shows that more than half of registered Democrats and nearly half of registered Republicans are undecided in the governor’s race. The state’s primary will be held on June 10.
The poll found a particularly tight race among Democrats.
Among the 437 people who said they plan to vote in the Democratic primary, 10% said they support U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, 8% said they support former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, 8% said they support Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, 7% said they support U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, 7% said they support former State Sen. Stephen Sweeney, and 4% said they support Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop.
An overwhelming 56% said they are undecided.
This data shows that Democrats in the race are effectively tied when factoring in the poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.6% at a stage in the race when surveys tend to reflect little more than a candidate’s name recognition.
Among the 334 Republicans who said they plan to vote in the primary, Jack Ciattarelli, who ran against Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021 and unsuccessfully ran for the Republican nomination in 2017, had the highest level of support among respondents in his party with 26%. Conservative radio show host Bill Spadea trailed him but also stood out among respondents with 13% support.
Behind them, State Sen. Jon Bramnick, Roger Bacon, Hans Herberg, former State Sen. Edward Durr, former Burlington City Mayor James Fazzone, and Robert Canfield, all had support in single digit percentages, and 47% were undecided.
This isn’t necessarily surprising, since Ciattarelli has run for the seat twice and Spadea speaks on statewide airwaves. But it also shows the factions of the Republican Party coming into view, with Spadea a staunch ally of Trump, and Ciattarelli trying to cast a wider net within the party.
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These numbers should not be taken as representative of the voters in this year’s primary, but rather an early measure of name recognition in the race, New Jersey pollsters said.
That’s in part because 77% of the 1,000 respondents said they plan to vote in the gubernatorial primaries, which Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, says is likely far from reality. Even with a more competitive primary than usual this year, he expects turnout to fall under 20%.
“You’re looking for almost a needle in a haystack when you’re looking for gubernatorial primary voters, because so few of our voters go out and participate in those,” Murray said.
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Name recognition could go a long way in a crowded field. But the split support shows that the candidates are pulling from different bases where they’re known, and galvanizing their particular factions to turn out could make an impact. If the field remains this crowded, a candidate could feasibly win with about a third of the vote, Murray said.
“These candidates really are all starting with low name recognition statewide, and will have to figure out ways to make inroads to win the nomination,” he said.
It’s also early in the race for voters, especially ones who are tired out from a turbulent presidential race, said Ashley Koning, director of Rutgers’ Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.
“I think there’s just a lot of time and a lot more name recognition that needs to be built for any of these candidates, and a lot more conveying of positions and policies for each of these candidates to make them look distinct to voters,” Koning said. “And you know, in general, really rallying interest for the election itself.”