Dread October | PA 2024 Newsletter

📅 There are 11 days until Election Day.

In this edition:

— Julia Terruso, Gillian McGoldrick, Sean Collins Walsh, Katie Bernard, William Bender, Oona Goodin-Smith, pa2024@inquirer.com

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As the election draws ever-closer, national politics reporter Julia Terruso explains why some Pennsylvania Democrats say they’re worried:

📊 The polls show a 50-50 race nationally and in our key battleground state, but it was very clear this week which party was panicking.

As Nate Silver confessed his gut and said former President Donald Trump would win, and national headlines questioned Vice President Kamala Harris’ support among key constituencies, Pennsylvania Democrats looking at a rapidly-approaching Election Day were projecting anything but calm.

The situation wasn’t helped when polling of the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania showed a narrowing contest between third-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and his Republican challenger Dave McCormick, now about a one-point race, according to polls released Thursday.

“Every Democratic operative I know seems to be reliving 2016 in their head over and over again,” Eric Stern, a strategist based in Pittsburgh said. “So everyone is terrified the polls are underestimating Trump again and working like hell to find voters wherever they can. There’s no motivation quite like the prospect of Trump ending democracy.”

Others voiced confidence on the record, but morphed into an early October Phillies fan when asked, off record, how they were feeling.

“Exceedingly nervous,” a Philadelphia strategist said.

”I haven’t had a good night’s sleep in three weeks,” a progressive organizer said.

The party and campaign have released an army of surrogates across the state to pump up volunteers and canvassers and hold rallies to get out the vote across the state.

“Tell everybody you know, everybody you don’t know, stop strangers,” UAW president Shawn Fain said at a recent turnout event with labor unions in Philadelphia. “It doesn’t matter. Knock on doors, phone bank, text bank, whatever it is…This is going to be ground zero of whether we have a good future or whether it gets worse.”

The contrasting vibes in a neck-and-neck race aren’t especially surprising, given that Harris has said she believes she’s the underdog in the race and Trump has declared himself the winner of debates and an election that he’s lost.

Democrats also think that nervous energy helps them run stronger, while Trump has only doubled down on the incendiary rhetoric that tends to pump up his base, often at the expense of Trump-wary voters.

💰 The 2024 presidential election moved into Pennsylvania and never left, an Inquirer analysis of the last year of campaigning shows. Harris, Trump, and their allies have dumped an eye-popping $538 million in advertising dollars to reach Pennsylvania voters — the most of any swing state.

🔴 For young Republicans — some of whom are casting their first vote this November — their coming-of-age coincided with Trump’s ascension, a highly unprecedented time in politics given the extent of his scandals and incendiary rhetoric. Many say they’ve been sold on Trump since childhood.

🥪 It’s been a big political week for local eateries. The Main Line’s Hymie’s Deli was the backdrop for a pro-Trump TV ad, Trump served fries at a closed-to-the-public McDonald’s drive-thru in Bucks County, and Harris picked up a pastrami on rye from Queen Village’s Famous 4th Street Deli — with a side of public gratitude for Mayor Cherelle L. Parker.

💵 State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta is looking to unseat Tim DeFoor, the state’s top Republican, in the race to become Pennsylvania’s next fiscal watchdog. Meet the candidates — and see where they clash.

📞 Harris was in the Philly suburbs twice this week: first in an appeal to Republicans urging “country over party” in Chester County, and again during a CNN town hall with undecided voters in Delaware County – where she called Trump’s former chief of staff’s warnings “a 911 call to the American people.”

🪧 As Harris spoke in Delco Wednesday, a group of pro-Palestinian activists gathered at the Philly Democrats headquarters, demanding the vice president publicly commit to an arms embargo on Israel to get their vote. Their protest represents a broader split that’s formed among activists during the general election.

💸 Philly’s Democratic Committee has asked Harris’ campaign to help fund its sample-ballot printing, get-out-the-vote-events, and Election Day “street money” to pay the thousands of committee members. The price tag, Philly Dems estimate: $1.2 million.

🏫 Elon Musk’s last-minute visit to a Delaware County high school brought armed security guards and SWAT armored vehicles to the school while class was in session — and some teachers were not happy.

🧑‍⚖️ A Philadelphia man was charged with threatening to kill and skin a campaign operative who was seeking volunteers to work as Election Day poll watchers — a case officials said highlights growing concern over the possibility of political violence in the commonwealth.

The claim: Elon Musk, the SpaceX founder who is trying to help Trump win Pennsylvania, retweeted a false post this week about how a Philly social services nonprofit is using unhoused people as part of a massive ballot-harvesting scheme.

❌ The check: False.

City Commissioner Seth Bluestein, a Republican member of the three-person board that runs election operations and voter registration in Philadelphia, called Musk out on X, which the billionaire also owns. “It’s just simply not true,” Bluestein told The Inquirer. “This is just one instance in a pattern of people trying to sow doubt and mistrust in our elections. They are taking bad information and purposely spreading it to cause a lack of faith in our elections.”

🎤 Now we’re passing the mic back to Julia for a look at Democrats’ dwindling voter registration edge in Pennsylvania:

Since the last presidential election, Republicans have cut the Democratic voter registration advantage in Pennsylvania in half, from 685,818 in 2020 to 297,824 as of this week, which marked the voter registration deadline in the state.

An Inquirer analysis of voter registration also shows a bump in unaffiliated voters here.

Five counties in the state, including Bucks County, flipped from a Democratic registration advantage to Republican from the last presidential election to this one and only three counties had a net gain of Democratic registrations in that four-year span. The shift is driven significantly by voters changing their party registration.

While Republicans point to the numbers as a sign that the winds are at their back heading into a deadlocked election in less than two weeks, Democrats note registration has long been a lagging indicator of how people vote. Past voting behavior is far more predictive of how people vote in the state. And the last four voting cycles have heavily favored Democrats statewide, despite a winnowing registration edge.

📈 Dave McCormick: The Republican U.S. Senate candidate has officially made it a race. Recent polls show that McCormick is closing the gap on Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report this week changed its rating of the race to “toss up” after previously favoring Casey. “While public polling in the Keystone State still shows Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points,” wrote Cook’s Jessica Taylor. McCormick on Wednesday appeared in Philly to accept an endorsement from the union for Philadelphia’s firefighters and paramedics. Hundreds of millions have been spent on the nationally watched race, and Pennsylvania voters can expect the deluge of TV ads and mailers to continue until Election Day.

📉 Lancaster County: The Lancaster County Board of Elections was at the receiving end of a strongly worded letter from Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt this week. The county, Schmidt alleged, ignored state and federal law by rejecting applications of voters, particularly college students, who were registered in another state or who did not have a Pennsylvania driver’s license. It is illegal in Pennsylvania to deny a voter the opportunity to register because they are registered in another state as long as they only vote in one, and college students are allowed to vote in the state where they attend school. The Republican chair of the Lancaster Board of Commissioners claimed in a public meeting that Schmidt’s letter was based on incorrect information, though the Department of State said the letter was based upon its own review of public records.

Last week, Harrisburg reporter Gillian McGoldrick traveled with Gov. Josh Shapiro to Michigan aboard a swing-state tour — and happened upon a what felt like a tryout for the next presidential election cycle:

The Democratic governors and future presidential frontrunners all lined up with one another with one common goal: elect Vice President Kamala Harris to be the next president.

It just so happens that they will also benefit from any outcome on Election Day and could be running against one another for president one day.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers all traveled across Michigan last week on Whitmer’s “Blue Wall Bus Tour” to rally Democratic support in targeted areas, like Saginaw, Mich., a diverse manufacturing city of 45,000 people once dominated by the automotive industry.

But in Saginaw, another governor magically appeared to stump for Harris without prior announcement: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, calling his state an honorary member of the “Blue Wall” that has elected Democratic presidents every year since 1988 (with the exception of 2016). Moore, Shapiro and Whitmer are all Democratic darlings who were at one time considered for vice president and are seen as future leaders of the party.

And suddenly, it was a tryout for 2028 or 2032 (depending on the Nov. 5 election result), as each governor gave their best stump speeches.

There was no talk of future elections, and they all said they were all-in to elect Harris – as well as Democrats up and down the ballot.

But it’s unavoidable that each of them will have political advantages from any election outcome: If they deliver their states for Harris, they’ll get to take some credit for electing her. If she loses, Democrats will look next to rising stars like Moore, Whitmer, and Shapiro.

Earlier in the day, rivalries showed between Shapiro and Whitmer when taking questions from reporters in Midland, Mich. One Michigan reporter asked Whitmer about turnout in the Great Lakes Bay region.

“Don’t forget, we’ve got a Great Lake in Pennsylvania, too,” Shapiro cut in.

“OK, how many?” Whitmer asked jokingly. “Four out of five Great Lakes choose Michigan, I’m just saying.”

The governors wouldn’t say what they talked about on the tour bus between stops.

“We all really enjoy each other’s company and we enjoy being around one another,” Shapiro said. “We’re working together in common purpose to make sure Kamala Harris wins this election in our respective states, so I’m sure we’re talking about all that stuff, and having a few laughs as it’s happening.”

”And probably not talking a whole lot about the NFL, because that’s the one place we’re not going to find common ground,” Whitmer quipped.

📅 Voters have until Oct. 29 to request a mail ballot, but officials say you should do so sooner to help ensure it will arrive on time.

📅 Nov. 5 is Election Day.

📍 Here is where to drop off your mail ballot or request one in Philadelphia.

✉️ Pennsylvania’s mail ballot applications are down from 2020. Here’s what that means for election night.

✉️ More than 1,200 mail ballots in Philly may be rejected due to simple errors. Here’s how to find out if yours is one of them. And if your mail ballot showed up with the return envelope already sealed, here’s what to do.

🗳️ Several lawsuits could change the rules for which ballots are and are not counted in November. One of those lawsuits, which was resolved Wednesday, ensures that voters whose mail ballots won’t count can cast a provisional ballot on Election Day.

❓Questions on your voter registration? We’ve got you covered.

📋 Want to learn more about the candidates on your ballot? The Inquirer voters guide has you covered with key facts on every major race.

One last thing: We answered your most-searched questions about the Pennsylvania election this week. Have another question? Email us back and we’ll try to answer it in this newsletter.

➡️ The candidates can’t get enough of Pennsylvania. Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, will be in Philly on Friday for a political fundraiser. On Saturday, Trump is expected to rally at Penn State, while Vance will hold a town hall at a Harrisburg church. On Sunday, Harris will be back in Philly for another campaign stop.

➡️ The Boss is also headed to the Streets of Philadelphia. Alongside former President Barack Obama, Bruce Springsteen is expected to hold a concert and rally in the city on Monday in support of Harris.

That’s all from us. As we approach the final countdown to Election Day, you can catch the latest at inquirer.com/politics. Otherwise, we’ll see you in your inbox next week. 👋