Four things we’re watching for in Pennsylvania’s general election

Tuesday’s general election might not have the fanfare — or anywhere near the expected turnout — of a presidential election, but it will hold clues for next year’s race and act as a barometer for how both major parties are doing in Pennsylvania.

Contests on either end of the state could signal how progressive Democrats perform against more moderate Republicans, and the most expensive state Supreme Court race to date will be a test study in whether abortion remains a motivating issue for voters. Which party comes out on top in suburban areas like Bucks and Chester Counties could foreshadow the political climate in 2024.

Historically, the party in control of the White House tends to do poorly in off-year elections, and President Joe Biden continues to suffer from low approval ratings. Two issues that Pennsylvania voters rank as high priorities — crime and the economy — are also topics Republicans are slightly favored in those polls to address. But Democrats defied historic headwinds last year, winning an open Senate seat, holding onto congressional seats, and improving numbers in Harrisburg.

Here’s a look at some of the themes and races we’re watching.

Suburban contests in the counties of Bucks, Chester, and Allegheny, which includes Pittsburgh’s suburbs, could hold some clues as to which direction this key voting bloc is moving. Democrats benefited from huge gains in the suburbs the last time local commissioner and county executive races were up in 2019. But it’s a different environment four years later — Biden is in the White House instead of former President Donald Trump, who motivated Democrats against him.

Even if Democrats hang on in those county races, by how much will be interesting. The suburbs were key to Biden’s victory in the state in 2020 and Tuesday will test if that Democratic grip is slipping and where.

Across state lines, all 120 seats in the New Jersey Legislature are up for grabs in a year that could, if Republicans run the table, flip control of Trenton to the GOP for the first time since 2001. Some of the competitive districts are in suburban parts of Gloucester County, outside of Camden, and in Bergen County. Unlike Philadelphia’s blue suburbs, those areas were hit with a red wave in 2021.

Whether Republicans continue that momentum or Democrats win back some of the seven New Jersey legislative seats they lost could signal political strength.

Philadelphia turnout — and the city’s overall share of the Democratic vote — has continued to slide in recent years. If the city’s portion of the Democratic vote continues to shrink compared with the last off-year election in 2021, especially in a year with a mayor’s race and a competitive City Council contest on the ballot, that’s a foreboding sign for Democrats hoping to hold onto a Senate seat and the White House next year.

There’s also the question of whether Republican turnout increases. While David Oh’s candidacy for mayor is a long shot in the majority-Democratic city, he’s run more of a campaign than recent GOP mayoral aspirants, and that could boost GOP interest, which could help the party statewide. His opponent, Cherelle Parker, is a Democrat running to become the city’s first female mayor.

Several races could shed some light on the strength of the progressive movement, which has grown on both sides of the state in recent years.

Working Families Party members Kendra Brooks and Nicolas O’Rourke are hoping to take both Council at-large seats reserved for non-Democrats away from Republicans this year.

Brooks in 2019 became the first third-party candidate to win a seat on Council in 70 years. A Working Families sweep would be a historic win for progressives in the city and a huge loss for Republicans who would see their representation in City Hall nearly obliterated. A big caveat, though: Philly’s system of electing at-large Council members isn’t exactly head to head — each voter votes for five people — so it’s a little tough to declare definitive progressive victory or defeat.

Allegheny County may be a better test. Democrat Sara Innamorato, a former state representative, is running for county executive against Republican Joseph Rockey, a former bank executive. Innamorato was elected with a wave of progressive women in 2018 and was previously aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America. Rockey has publicly slammed former President Donald Trump and portrayed himself as a more centrist Republican.

The race for district attorney in Allegheny pits a progressive — Democrat Matt Dugan — against incumbent Stephen Zappala, who is running as a Republican after getting beaten in the Democratic primary by Dugan. Dugan’s campaign is backed by billionaire George Soros, who has helped elect several progressive DA candidates, including Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner.

The races won’t just determine the sorts of policies and priorities voters could see but, more broadly, they could signal the relative strength of progressive candidates trying to win in the state in 2024.

Democrats see abortion rights as a coalescing issue. Campaigns, along with outside groups, have poured millions into putting the topic at the center of Tuesday’s Supreme Court race. The outcome could be an early test of that strategy.

Republican Carolyn Carluccio and Democrat Dan McCaffery are vying for the open seat vacated after the death of Chief Justice Max Baer in October 2022. Since then, the 4-2 Democratic-majority bench has deadlocked on a number of decisions, including mail ballot rulings — setting up the winner of the race to become a deciding vote in important election law cases. The court has also heard cases related to state abortion law.

Democrats have attacked Carluccio for receiving the endorsement of two Pennsylvania antiabortion associations, and for removing her resumé from her campaign website where she summarized herself as a defender of “all life under the law.” Planned Parenthood’s political arm ran a seven-figure TV ad buy against her suggesting she can’t be trusted to protect abortion rights.

Carluccio has declined to give her personal opinion on abortion. She told The Inquirer last month: “My personal opinion has absolutely no place in this. The law in Pennsylvania is very clear that a woman has a right to choose up to 24 weeks. I will follow that law.”

Abortion has been a key issue in judicial races in other states, such as Wisconsin, where a liberal judge won earlier this year and flipped the balance of the state’s high court.

It’s on the ballot Tuesday in Ohio, where voters will decide whether to enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution. Doing so would render inactive a six-week limit signed into law by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine and currently pending litigation in front of the Republican-controlled state Supreme Court.

The amendment, known as Issue 1, has captured the attention of national abortion rights and antiabortion groups. More than $60 million has been spent on messaging for and against the amendment, which is seen as a test case for several states considering similar ballot initiatives.

In addition to the Ohio referendum, legislative elections in Virginia also center on abortion. Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is hoping to show that abortion limits can be a winning issue for his party. The election will determine whether Republicans win a majority in the statehouse and can push through a promised 15-week limit on abortions.

This article contains information from the Associated Press.