Trump’s impact on Pa. GOP candidates, Biden’s support in the suburbs, and other political storylines we’re watching in 2024

Pennsylvanians are reminded year after year of our state’s political significance — and 2024 will be no different. In fact, the state’s impact could be even more critical than usual.

With a presidential race, Senate race, and several key House races looming, the state could help determine the balance of two chambers and the White House.

Here are five things we’ll be watching in 2024.

Former President Donald Trump has dominated the GOP primary without appearing on any debate stages — and despite facing a flurry of legal troubles. His front-runner status has allowed him to pivot to running a general election campaign against President Joe Biden.

But the first clear test of Trump’s hold will be next month in Iowa and New Hampshire. Time is running short for a challenger such as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to break through.

Even if Trump coasts through the early states, another variable is the pending criminal cases against him. If he is convicted — or even jailed — Pennsylvania’s relatively late April 23 primary could become more meaningful.

Trump has a loyal base in Pennsylvania. He also has a bad track record of endorsing losing candidates here. More moderate members of the party, and even some conservatives, have blamed those losses on Trump and have pleaded for some distance from him to protect Republican candidates who are trying to break through in politically split parts of the state.

Philadelphia GOP chair Vince Fenerty last month predicted a “bloodbath” for Pennsylvania Republican candidates in if Trump is the nominee.

“I think the majority of the Republican Party in Philadelphia realizes in order for it to be possible for us to take the House of Representatives back in Harrisburg, the best candidate is someone other than Donald Trump,” Fenerty said.

Earlier this month, Trump endorsed an Ohio Senate candidate whom he called “exactly the type of MAGA fighter” needed in the Senate. Early polls show the candidate losing by 11 points in a general election matchup against Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, while more moderate candidates polled closer. Republicans just need a net gain of two seats to take control of the chamber outright, or one seat plus the tie-breaking vice presidency.

So far, Trump has had no engagement with Pennsylvania GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick, and McCormick has made little mention of the former president on the campaign trail.

Whether that distance remains will be something to watch.

While Republicans often struggle with the push and pull of keeping Trump at arm’s length without alienating his base, there’s an argument that when Trump is on the ballot, voters turn out. In 2016, Trump ran up margins across the rural parts of Pennsylvania, propelling his victory. While Biden cut into those margins just enough to win in 2020, the election was decided by less than 1% of the vote.

“I haven’t seen anyone who has showed me how they can beat Joe Biden,” Billy Walker, who heads Temple University’s college Republicans, said at a recent GOP debate watch party. “I don’t care what kind of Republican you are, neo-con, far-right, I care which one of youse are gonna beat Joe Biden and Trump brings people out to vote. And he’s the only one actually campaigning against Joe Biden.”

Biden was never an especially popular candidate or president, but in most recent polls, his approval rating tied his all-time low at 38%.

Biden, 81, has struggled to convince voters that he’s up to the job. It’s also been a challenge for him to sell his legislative record as something that should earn him a second term.

“When President Biden and Vice President Harris took the oath of office on Jan. 20, 2021, America faced historic challenges including a once-in-a-century pandemic, an economy gripped by the most severe downturn since the Great Depression, and the painful aftermath of the January 6th insurrection,” White House Communications Director Ben LaBolt said in a year-end memo.

LaBolt called Biden’s first term “one of the most impactful legislative records in generations,” pointing to job creation, infrastructure, and manufacturing gains, and a decrease in inflation.

Yet polling shows the message hasn’t landed — and voters across both parties are feeling a greater sense of political apathy.

Biden will also have an impeachment inquiry working its way through Congress and a court case against his son, Hunter Biden, ramping up in early 2024.

Biden can’t afford to lose much of his winning Pennsylvania coalition. He’s started replicating his 2020 playbook, warning of the dangers a second Trump term would pose to democracy and directly comparing Trump to Adolf Hitler. That could be a more motivating message for a Democratic base that rallied against Trump in 2020.

Elected Democrats have largely stood by Biden publicly, while privately expressing concerns that he might drag down fellow Democratic candidates or dampen turnout. Sen. Bob Casey, a longtime ally of the president, faces a tough reelection campaign but has consistently said he will welcome Biden stumping for him and vice versa.

Democrats had big wins this year and last year in Pennsylvania, and the suburbs were a big reason why.

Four years after Democrats swept to power in some of Philadelphia’s collar counties for the first time ever, they were reelected to governing bodies in Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery Counties this fall. The resounding success for Democrats in the Southeast showed those wins weren’t a fluke but an ongoing trend.

With Philadelphia’s share of the statewide Democratic vote declining, the suburbs will be key to the statewide storyline. Suburban Democratic growth could be the difference maker in key House races including the 10th Congressional District, where Rep. Scott Perry (R., York) is trying to hold on to his seat, and in the Lehigh Valley and Northeast, where Democratic Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright are up for reelection.

Democrats will likely again try to run on abortion rights, which helped fuelbig suburban gains in recent elections.

Conventional political wisdom has been that the motivating issue for voters in an election year is almost always the economy. Current polling shows it’s the most important issue.

But as the Israel-Hamas war continues, the issue has divided Democrats in Pennsylvania. The party’s voters are split on whether the war should continue, exposing a potential vulnerability for Biden and other Democrats.

Most Democrats under 35 (69%) said in a November poll that they disapproved of how Biden was responding to the war. Among older Democrats polled, 77% approved of Biden on the issue.

That also tracks with how voters said they felt about the war overall, with Democrats younger than 35 far more likely to sympathize with Palestinians, and Democrats 65 and older somewhat more likely to side with Israel.

Within Pennsylvania’s delegation, Democratic Sen. John Fetterman has been one of the most outspoken and emphatic supporters of Israel, angering his progressive supporters.

U.S. Rep. Summer Lee is Pennsylvania’s only member of Congress who has called for a cease-fire in Gaza. Last week, U.S. Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, an Air Force veteran, signed on to a letter expressing deep concern about Israel’s current military strategy in Gaza and calling on the Biden administration to push for a shift in military tactics.

“Some of us also spent years fighting America’s war on terror,” the letter read. “We know from personal and often painful experiences that you can’t destroy a terror ideology with military force alone. And it can, in fact, make it worse.”