Doug Mastriano sure seems to be campaigning for something, and Republicans are worried

QUARKERTOWN — It was a sweltering Sunday in July with one storm having just passed and plenty of dark clouds looming on the horizon.

Still, more than 70 people shelled out $10 and hauled beach chairs to a wet concrete slab in front of a covered stage in a public park for the event’s big draw: State Sen. Doug Mastriano.

The crowd — predominantly white and older than 50 — looked as if it had been recruited from the 2022 campaign trail, when Mastriano, a Franklin County Republican, waged his losing battle for governor.

And Mastriano’s 25-minute speech, delivered as usual in tandem with his wife, Rebbie, echoed the themes of that race.

Unsubstantiated suggestions of voter fraud. Complaints about precautions taken during the pandemic. “Indoctrination” in public schools. And, as always, most fervently, his disappointment in fellow Republicans for not supporting his campaign.

It rang as both a retrospective grievance tour and a future call to action.

Mastriano decried the Republican “establishment” while his wife told the crowd they had helped lay a foundation for a movement.

“It was not the result we wanted,” Mastriano told the crowd of the 2022 election. “But it’s the beginning of a movement here that has the power to change the course and trajectory of Pennsylvania. Is Pennsylvania worth saving?”

Mastriano is clearly stoking his base. But to what end?

The Inquirer spoke to a dozen Republicans — elected officials, consultants, and activists — for this article. None of them could say for sure what Mastriano is trying to accomplish.

Earlier this year, he had teased the possibility of another statewide bid, this time for the U.S. Senate in 2024, right up until the day in May when he declared he would not run.

That answered one question but prompted many more.

Typical for Mastriano, he is not keen to share his plans and did not respond to requests for comment.

The most likely scenario: Mastriano is in the very early days of another run for governor in 2026, which raises the prospect of a rematch with Gov. Josh Shapiro, who soundly defeated him last year.

Sam Faddis, a retired CIA officer and president of the Pennsylvania Patriot Coalition, said he has not spoken to Mastriano about the future but suspects he is laying the foundation for a 2026 rematch.

He said Mastriano’s supporters are drawn to him in part due to his personality but also because of their affinity for his issues and antipathy for government and politicians.

“There are a lot people who are really angry and feel disenfranchised, and that’s not going away,” Faddis said. “I think there are a lot of people across the political spectrum who wish that was not true, including the GOP establishment.”

» READ MORE: Gov. Josh Shapiro’s budget breakdown over school vouchers was a rare misstep

Another option — a primary challenge to U.S. Rep. John Joyce, a Blair County Republican and staunch conservative — seems doubtful. They endorsed each other last year, and Mastriano told Politico in March that he considers Joyce a friend and would not challenge him.

A spokesperson for Joyce’s campaign said the congressman intends to run for a fourth term in 2024. The campaign would not comment about Mastriano’s political future.

Many Pennsylvania Republicans dread the notion of another bid for governor. Mastriano’s presence at the top of the ticket was widely blamed for a disappointing showing in 2022, including Mehmet Oz’s loss to Sen. John Fetterman and the surprising flip of the state House to Democrats.

“The only person in Pennsylvania who wants Doug Mastriano to run for governor in 2026 is Josh Shapiro,” said Chris Pack, a Republican national strategist who has worked in Pennsylvania and on congressional efforts.

Pennsylvania’s Republican establishment is unclear on what comes next for Mastriano.

“If you’re looking for deep insight, quite frankly I don’t have it,” said David Feidt, chairman of the Dauphin County Republican Party and co-chair of the party’s 24-county Central Caucus, which includes Mastriano’s district.

And the state party is mum. Lawrence Tabas, a Philadelphia lawyer who chairs the state’s Republican Party, did not respond for requests for comment.

Mastriano and his wife announced in Quakertown that they will hold a “freedom conference” in Harrisburg on Oct. 21 aimed at educating people new to politics.

Matt Beynon, who worked for another competitor in last year’s primary, said some candidates have trouble seeing their limitations.

“I think it’s pretty clear he doesn’t see the state Senate as his end point, though I think voters have provided him with his glass ceiling,” Beynon said.

Other strategists surmise that Mastriano may just be replenishing his campaign bank account.

Josh Novotney, a GOP lobbyist from Philadelphia who has worked on statewide campaigns, noted that Mastriano was criticized last year for not being “a prolific fundraiser.”

“He’s got to do these events with the base all around the state,” Novotney said. “He has the time now to meet with donors and build up relationships. If he’s in Quakertown meeting with grassroots people three years out, that’s how you win.”

When Mastriano spoke July 16 at the Pennsylvania Patriot Coalition event in Quakertown, his volunteers ran one of the dozen tents for vendors. They offered a variety of “merch” — T-shirts and hats for $20, bags and glasses for $30, a signed photograph for $50. It was all emblazoned with the “Walk as free people” motto from his gubernatorial campaign.

Mastriano, a retired U.S. Army colonel, handily won a 2019 special election for the Senate’s 33rd District, which covers all of Franklin and Adams Counties, and then won a full four-year term in 2020.

His next election, if he seeks a second full term, would be next year.

It should be an easy lift if he doesn’t face a primary challenger. Republicans make up 71% of the registered voters in Franklin County and 66% in Adams County.

But not everyone is satisfied with his work as a legislator.

Charlotte Shaffer, chair of the Adams County Republican Party, said Mastriano has been “virtually missing in action” since last year, not showing up for party gatherings for candidates or elected officials.

Mastriano held an event at a public park in May in Adams County — he called it “Connecting with the 33rd District” on Facebook — but did not share the invitation with anyone from the local party.

“I believe five people showed up,” Shaffer said.

She said she doesn’t know what Mastriano’s political aspirations are.

“There’s a communication gap,” Shaffer said. “Actually, there is no communication coming from him as a senator and his campaign.”

Shaffer calls that “really disappointing” because her local party knocked on thousands of doors last year, pushing him for governor.

“We did a whole lot,” Shaffer said. “We put everything we had behind the Republican candidates.”

Mastriano may not show up in Adams County much, but he is still posting every day on social media.

He still makes regular appearances on radio shows and podcasts where deferential hosts offer support for his long list of grievances. He unspooled that list again on July 24 on the John Frederick Radio Network, posting video of that to his Facebook page.

» READ MORE: How Doug Mastriano deployed Facebook Live to build his far-right base

Mastriano mischaracterized unverified claims by Republicans in Washington about corruption when President Joe Biden was vice president as “smoking gun” evidence.

“When are folks going to be held accountable?” Mastriano asked. “When is Joe Biden going to be impeached? We need action in D.C.”

He lamented hearing complaints about government and politicians from people who did not vote for him. Two out of five registered voters in Pennsylvania did not cast a ballot last November.

“We had the majority across the state, the support, because we personified the values of the people of Pennsylvania,” Mastriano said. “But the people of Pennsylvania, not enough of us get out and do the least we can do for our country and vote.”

And, again, he complained about that the Republican Party did not rally around him with donations, endorsements, and other support after last year’s bruising primary.

“That’s our party,” Mastriano said. “Republicans in Pennsylvania, I’ve found, are fantastic at tearing each other down. We are the best at beating up each other.”