Does Harris have a Scranton problem? Trump hopes so. | PA 2024 Newsletter

📅 There are 80 days until Election Day.

In this edition:

—Julia Terruso, Aseem Shukla, Sean Collins Walsh, Katie Bernard, Fallon Roth, Oona Goodin-Smith, pa2024@inquirer.com

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Scranton’s favorite son is no longer on the ballot in the state that could determine the election, and some Republicans see that as an opening.

This weekend, Trump travels to Wilkes-Barre, Scranton’s sister city in Northeast Pennsylvania, where he hopes he can appeal to more of the white, non-college educated, working class voters who helped him win the state in 2016. President Joe Biden won just enough votes with that group in 2020 to help land him in the White House.

“[Vice President] Kamala Harris may be trying to claim a lot of new things about her biography and record,” former Trump communications director and Pennsylvania native Tim Murtaugh told us. “But I doubt she can get away with claiming to be from Scranton.”

Biden’s Scranton loyalists relayed some concern when he dropped out of the race about how well Harris might fare in the city and the critical swingy Rust Belt towns nearby.

But there’s not a ton of evidence so far that Harris will have a major problem in the Northeast. Early polling shows her doing better than Biden in the region, and regions like it. And her favorability is up with independent voters, a key bloc in counties like Luzerne and Lackawanna.

“Everyone says ‘that district will be worse for Harris than it was for Biden,’” said a Pennsylvania Republican strategist, wary of sounding the alarm on the record. “And I say there’s not a … district in America that’s gonna be worse for Harris than Biden.”

The Northeast has also become more diverse, and Harris has showed early signs of improving Democratic appeal among Black voters and younger voters, which could offset other potential losses.

Scrantonians headed to Chicago for the Democratic National Convention said they’re motivated to turnout their region for Harris — even if the spotlight on the Electric City may dim.

“Joe Biden passed the torch to Kamala Harris,” Scranton-based DNC delegate Andrew Cutillo said. “Now Scranton passes the torch to Oakland.”

💸 The epidemic of fentanyl overdoses is becoming increasingly important to voters. And in Pennsylvania’s closely-watched U.S. Senate race, it’s become a key issue — with investments in a Chinese fentanyl company at its center.

🔵 In the three weeks since Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Harris, Pennsylvania has seen a spike in registered Democrats — perhaps signaling growing enthusiasm in the party.

🏡 Elections officials will play a critical role in ensuring things run smoothly in November — particularly in Philadelphia, the largest city in the state poised to decide the presidency. That’s why, when one city election official quit her job last month, Mayor Cherelle L. Parker visited her at her home to stop her.

🗳️ A Montgomery County man has been charged in a rare election fraud case after voting in three counties in Pennsylvania and Florida. One Philly official said the case shows the system is working, and “when there are irregularities and fraud of them being investigated and caught.”

🤝 He may have lost the veepstakes, but polls show Gov. Josh Shapiro is still the state’s most popular politician.

⏩ Fast-forwarding to the 2025 election: Around half a dozen people are already thinking about challenging Larry Krasner for Philly’s district attorney — and one already has registered several campaign-styled domain names.

🎤 This week, we’re passing the mic to our colleague, data reporter Aseem Shukla, to talk about the five kinds of places predicted to win Pennsylvania in November:

🪑 So you want to win Pennsylvania. Pull up a chair.

You say Pennsylvania is a swing state. I say it’s a state of swing demographics. As some voters inch left, others are moving right — or they’re staying home. Who wins depends on which of those subtle, evenly-balanced trends works out in their favor.

We can’t look into every voter’s mind, but we can look at trends on the ground. Let’s divide the state into five groups, based on population density, ethnicity, and education:

🔑 Rural areas, the least densely populated

🔑 Suburban areas, the next most densely populated

🔑 White working-class urban areas, where voters are mostly white and mostly don’t have bachelor’s degrees

🔑 White college-educated urban areas, where voters are mostly white and largely do have college degrees, and

🔑 Non-white urban areas, which have a combination of Black, Latino, and/or Asian majorities in cities big and small

Those groups are listed in increasing order of Democratic votes. But here’s the thing — they’re moving in different directions than you might have expected. Take a look at this chart, where the arrows show whether the group netted more votes for Joe Biden (left) or Donald Trump (right) in 2020, compared to 2016.

While the suburbs and whiter parts of cities netted more votes for Joe Biden in 2020 than for Hillary Clinton in 2016, both rural areas and non-white cities — both of which have lower rates of college education than the rest of the state — bled Democratic support.

If those trends continue in 2024, and if Democratic losses in cities and the countryside outweigh gains elsewhere, things might favor Trump. If those losses remain limited, the outlook may be better for Harris.

📈 Dems in Philly’s outer suburbs: Philadelphia’s suburbs have become a stronghold for Democratic votes — even in outer, more exurban areas of the suburbs that shifted left more slowly than other parts of the region. There are a number of fast-growing municipalities in Chester and Montgomery Counties where the population growth has almost exclusively benefited Democrats. This is especially clear in East Brandywine Township. Decades ago the area was predominantly rural. A rush of new development has brought self-described “city folks” into the township. And they’re bringing their politics with them.

📉 X Spaces: Elon Musk’s meandering conversation with Trump on X Spaces got off to a very, very glitchy start Monday night. The talk — in which Trump discussed the assassination attempt and his promise to return to Butler — started 42 minutes late after users trying to get into the Space were met with a message that read: “🙉 This Space is not available.” Those who were able to make it inside the Space were met with seemingly-never ending lo-fi techno beat music as they waited. Musk said the delay was caused by “a massive DDOS attack,” which is malicious in nature, but one X staffer told the Verge there is a “99 percent” chance Musk was lying.

From the land of “E-A-G-L-E-S” in the east to Terrible Towel territory out west, there aren’t many places in Pennsylvania where people think highly of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft. One exception may be the campaign headquarters of Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick. As former Inquirer political reporter Jonathan Tamari pointed out on X, Kraft in February donated $24,500 to support McCormick’s bid to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey. McCormick may need that financial help. A recent Quinnipiac poll has him down among likely voters by … 🦅 8 points.

➡️ This weekend in Pennsylvania, as Trump heads to the northeastern part of the state, while Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, tour Western Pennsylvania by bus.

➡️ Whether the Sept. 10 presidential debate will actually take place at Independence Hall, as Walz and Republican VP candidate JD Vance plan their debate for October.

➡️ If a New York judge will grant Trump’s request to delay his sentencing in his hush money criminal case until after the election.

➡️ What happens at the DNC next week, as Parker, Shapiro, Casey, Rep. Joanna McClinton, and more Pennsylvania Democratic political movers and shakers head to Chicago.

That’s it for us this week. Head to inquirer.com/politics to follow our latest coverage of the candidates’ weekend visits, and as Julia and Sean are on the ground at the DNC next week. We’ll see you in your inbox next Friday. 👋