Sixers’ future, for better or worse, depends on James Harden’s decision

Harden's legacy, and how well the Sixers are set up to compete over the next couple seasons, both hang in the balance this summer.

Sixers guard James Harden will opt out of his contract by the June 29 deadline. But will he re-sign with the Sixers or decide to go elsewhere?Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by Keith Pompey

Published June 19, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

As the 76ers were about to conclude Nick Nurse’s introductory press conference, the new head coach was asked how he could sell James Harden on remaining with the team.

“Winning is always the sell,” Nurse said on June 1. “Can we be good enough to win it all? That’s got to be a goal of his. Then if it is, then he should stay here and play for us because I think there’s a possibility of that.”

Nurse said he didn’t take the job with the hope and expectation that Harden would return. However, the point guard’s presence could make a difference on how impactful Nurse’s first season is in Philadelphia.

As the Sixers head into transaction season without draft picks or cap space, their continued success could depend on Harden’s decision.

The 10-time All-Star intends to opt out of his $35.6 million deal for next season with the Sixers before the June 29 deadline and become a free agent.

For the Sixers, a return to Philadelphia doesn’t seem as bleak as it did a month ago. There’s varying levels of belief that Harden could re-sign with the Sixers depending on who you talk to. Sources have said the Sixers are more optimistic that he’ll re-sign. Perhaps that’s why there’s a report that Harden is “giving renewed consideration to staying put.”

However in May, the overwhelming belief among NBA executives and league sources was that Harden would rejoin the Houston Rockets this summer.

Harden could receive a maximum salary of $210 million over four years with the Sixers, who have his Bird rights. He could make up to $201.7 million with another team. But with Harden at 33 years old and prone to struggles in the postseason, it’s unlikely any team would want to max him out for four years.

The Sixers are not willing to hinder the team’s short- or long-term future by overpaying for Harden. The prevailing thought is a deal in the two-year range would be ideal for the 14-year veteran.

If so, could his decision ultimately come down to a team willing to guarantee at least a third year?

Sources have said Harden’s interest in returning to Houston is mutual and not a ploy to get a lucrative deal out of the Sixers. One of the Rockets’ all-time best players, he won the 2018 MVP award and three scoring titles during his nine seasons there. And Houston will always be a special place for him.

Of course, losing Harden would be costly. He is part of the reason the Sixers don’t have any picks in Thursday’s draft.

The Sixers surrendered an unprotected first-round pick to the Brooklyn Nets, which was deferred to Thursday’s draft, in addition to giving up Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond in a trade on Feb. 10, 2022.

The league also rescinded the Sixers’ two second-round draft picks in the 2023 and 2024 drafts after an investigation determined the team violated the league’s tampering rules in its free-agency pursuit of P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr.

A key piece to the Sixers’ success, Harden averaged 21.0 points and 6.1 rebounds this season in addition to being the first Sixer to win the NBA assists title (10.7 per game) since Wilt Chamberlain in 1967-68.

He was by far the best ballhandler and facilitator on a squad that lost in seven games to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Finishing with the league’s third-best regular-season record of 54-28, the Sixers were considered championship contenders.

Not projected to have salary-cap space available, they would not be able to replace Harden adequately in free agency.

So Harden’s decision will have huge implications for the Sixers moving forward — more than any attempt to acquire a second-round pick in Thursday’s draft.

If Harden stays, the Sixers would benefit from running it back with their core players in pursuit of an NBA championship.

If he opts to leave, they would be better suited trying to trade Tobias Harris, who’ll be in the final year of his contract, for complementary pieces and assets.

So while other teams are bracing for this week’s draft, Harden’s decision can’t come soon enough for the Sixers.