Making some sense of the Jimmy Butler-to-Houston report, and what a deal might look like | David Murphy

You can snicker if you want. That was my first reaction when the rumors started to fly about the Rockets’ targeting Jimmy Butler.

But yesterday’s report by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski was something of a legitimizer, at least with regard to the concept of Butler leaving Philly this offseason. Woj did not rise to his current position by trafficking in speculation that does not have any basis in reality. Which means one of two things: One of the invested parties is blowing smoke to increase leverage, or one of the invested parties actually thinks there is a realistic chance of this happening.

That second possibility is significant. The fact that this report even exists in the first place suggests that the Rockets have some reason to believe that it could happen. Sure, there’s a chance that Houston GM Daryl Morey is simply throwing up a Hail Mary with the hope that it switches on a light bulb in Butler’s head. There’s also a chance that he is operating as a Putin-style agent of chaos.

But if the Rockets really are operating on the basis that such a seemingly absurd scenario is in fact plausible, then it stands to reason that Butler’s camp has given them some reason to think that he would be on board. And that would mean one of two things:

1) Butler is 100 percent sold on re-signing with the Sixers but has his doubts about their willingness to offer him a full five-year max and thinks he needs the leverage of having another landing spot.

2) Butler isn’t 100 percent sold on re-signing with the Sixers.

The only issue with scenario No. 1 is that the Rockets would be a strange choice of “mystery teams” to hold up as a viable alternative to the Sixers. Everybody knows that Houston is over the cap and has no realistic way to sign him without the Sixers’ involvement. This really isn’t an “or else” proposition. Butler does not have the threat of walking away and signing with Houston to hold over Sixers GM Elton Brand’s head. If this was simply a matter of leverage, wouldn’t it make more sense to float a team that has the cap space to sign him outright?

It seems more than reasonable, then, to disregard our skepticism about the legitimacy of a Butler-to-Rockets scenario and acknowledge that this is not a good sign for the Sixers, who long ago realized that it would be extraordinarily difficult for them to part ways with Butler and enter 2019-20 with a roster that is equally talented to or more talented than the one they carried into the Eastern Conference semis.

Forget about the odds that a deal with the Rockets actually happens. Set aside all of the obvious reasons for skepticism, from the Sixers’ ability to offer more money to Butler’s fit alongside James Harden and Chris Paul to the level of motivation that Brand and Co. would have to play an active role in facilitating the exit of a player whom they clearly would like to remain with the team.

If Woj is right, and the Rockets are planning to make a push for Butler, and they have some reason to think that Butler would be on board, and this isn’t a strict leverage play by Butler’s camp, it suggests that Butler has some reservations about remaining in Philly, a reality that would jibe with recent reports that the Sixers could be a player for Al Horford, who would fit on the payroll only if Butler or Tobias Harris leaves.

With that in mind, let’s consider a few obvious questions:

1) Why would the Sixers play an active role in facilitating the departure of a player they clearly hope to re-sign?

They wouldn’t, if it was a zero-sum proposition (i.e. either Butler gets traded to the Rockets or he re-signs with the Sixers). But if Butler has decided that he does not want to spend the next four or five of years of his career in Philly, and is set on playing elsewhere next season, then the question gets turned on its head: Why wouldn’t the Sixers try to get something in return for Butler rather than letting him walk away for nothing?

2) So, why wouldn’t the Sixers try to get something in return for Butler rather than letting him walk away for nothing?

The obvious answer is that whatever they could get in return would leave them in worse shape than if they used Butler’s cap space to sign another free agent, such as Horford. But keep in mind something that we’ve already talked through before: Just because Butler leaves does not mean the Sixers would have enough money to sign another max free agent, even if there was a max free agent willing to sign.

At the moment, the Sixers have the flexibility to bring back last season’s entire playoff rotation minus James Ennis, while potentially replacing Boban Marjanovic with a backup center such as Ed Davis (Nets) or Kyle O’Quinn (Pacers) using the $4.8 million room exception. That would include re-signing Butler and Harris to max deals, re-signing JJ Redick and Mike Scott at or close to last year’s salaries, and entering the season with a starting five of Butler, Harris, Redick, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid and a bench of Scott as a stretch four, Matisse Thybulle and Zhaire Smith at the two/three, a low-level free agent backup center, and perhaps a backup point guard at the veteran minimum. From there, they would fill out the roster with Shake Milton, Jonah Bolden, and three more end-of-the-benchers.

If Butler leaves, they would have in the neighborhood of $38 million of cap room, but only if they renounced Redick, Scott and their room exception. They would then need that $38 million to replace two starting spots (Butler and Redick) and two bench spots (Scott and a backup center). If they kept Scott and Redick at last year’s numbers, they’d have around $21 million, which could be enough to add a guy such as Horford on a three- or four-year deal, which would also reduce the need to add a backup center (such a scenario would involve renouncing the room exception). Or, they could use that money to try to sign a Butler replacement, be it Patrick Beverley or Malcolm Brogdon or some other guard/wing, which would still leave them needing a backup center.

Further limiting the appeal of Gordon/Tucker are the facts that Gordon will be a free agent after next season and Tucker is 34 years old and overpaid for his production. The Sixers would have the ability to re-sign Gordon next year, but they wouldn’t be able to replace him, assuming that Simmons signs a max extension this summer.

Essentially, this is the summer when the Sixers need to set their team for the next three to four years, because it is going to be extremely difficult to add a player of significant consequence once Simmons signs his (presumptive) new deal. So while you might be able to talk yourself into Gordon/Tucker for 2018-19, it’s hard to see that leaving them in the best possible shape for the seasons beyond.

4) So then there’s no way it makes sense?

Not necessarily. There’s a scenario in which the Sixers strike a deal with the Rockets and end up taking back nothing but picks in return. They’d need to find another under-the-cap team that wouldn’t need to shed any salary, but that’s not out of the realm of possibility, especially if Capela ends up involved in the deal.

In that scenario, the Sixers would simply be a middle man, spinning off all of the salary the Rockets are required to send them to a third (or fourth) team and walking away with picks or low-cost developmental/bench pieces. Granted, that could mean a lot of maneuvering for not a lot of return.

5) So, again, what would incentivize the Sixers to take part?

Two reasons. First, and most obvious, any picks/pieces are better than no picks/pieces, assuming the result is the same amount of cap room that they would have if they simply let Butler walk. But maybe the best rationale is that it would allow the Sixers to ensure that Butler does not make their road to the NBA Finals any more difficult by trading him to a team that will spend the next four to five seasons fighting its way through a Western Conference that could feature two super teams in the Lakers and Warriors, plus the Trail Blazers and Nuggets of the world.

That’s a much more palatable scenario than one in which Butler goes to play for the Nets or the Knicks or the Celtics or any other Eastern Conference team that the Sixers would have to face. Sending Butler to the Rockets would ensure that he does not make some other Eastern Conference team more competitive.

6) Why would Butler want to play in Houston? Or anywhere else in the Eastern Conference besides Philly?

This is asking us to peer inside the psyche of a man who few people seem to understand, but there are some sensible reasons that Butler might be hesitant to commit to the Sixers.

First and foremost, there is still a huge question about how he fits alongside Simmons. Or, better phrased, there’s a huge question about how Simmons fits alongside him.

By the end of the playoffs, the Sixers were putting the ball in his hands and letting him do his thing. It’s clearly where Butler is most comfortable. Remember all of that talk during the regular season about how Butler looked passive, lost, perhaps disinterested? Signing a four- or five-year deal means signing up for four or five more regular seasons in which the Sixers will continue to try to develop Simmons into the do-it-all mismatch of a point guard that they envision.

Maybe they really did turn over a new leaf in the postseason. Maybe they will be content to operate as they did when they were at their best this year. But is Butler sold on that being the case? And are the Sixers really willing to take the chance that Simmons takes his talents elsewhere once free agency arrives, or ends up as something less than the player he could be while being forced to spend considerable time without the ball in his hands?

The second big consideration is lifestyle. Butler says he wants to win, first and foremost. But in his end-of-season press conference, he mentioned about wanting to find a location that suits his vast team of family and support personnel. Why would Butler consider leaving a place that loves him, wants him, is willing to pay him, and has as good of a chance as any team to make repeat appearances in the Finals? I don’t know. Why would Kawhi Leonard consider leaving a place where he just won an NBA title?

Some people are never content where they are. It’s human nature. And given what we have seen from Butler in his last two stops, as well as what reports such as Woj’s suggest, it’d be silly to discount the possibility that he will be playing elsewhere next season.

Which could leave the Sixers facing an interesting dilemma.