Joel Embiid is the betting underdog to win the NBA MVP Award

Hate to tell ya, cheesesteak breath, but Joel Embiid closed as an underdog on the MVP betting board.

A late poll by ESPN fueled a surge in wagers on Denver’s Nikola Jokić, which has some sportsbooks needing Embiid to pull off a mild upset and win the NBA’s top individual award.

Embiid put one final line in his resume’ on Saturday with his third 40-point outburst in four games to edge out Giannis Antetokounmpo for the scoring title. Embiid finished averaging 30.6 points per game to Antetokounmpo’s 29.9. Jokić was sixth at 27.1.

The primary question is whether the scoring title will be enough to change the results reflected in ESPN’s final MVP straw poll of voters conducted in the final week of March – before Embiid went on his 40-point runs. In that poll, Jokić had 62 first-place votes to Embiid’s 29. The final poll has predicted the last four MVPs.

“I have big liability on Jokić,” said Tom Gable, director of the race & sports book at the Borgata in Atlantic City. “I would love to see Embiid win it.”

» READ MORE: Embiid’s scoring title and MVP chase would be for naught if Sixers don’t have postseason success

Gable’s final odds were typical of most around the country. The Borgata closed with Jokić at -275, Embiid +250 and Antetokounmpo at +850. Caesars sold a $50,000 ticket on Jokić when the Nuggets’ center was at 3-1.

This market has been volatile all season as early front-runners Steph Curry and Kevin Durant were derailed by a cold spell and a lengthy injury, respectively.

PointsBet had 31% of its MVP handle on Embiid, 11% on Jokić. “The book will be rooting for Jokić to win back-to-back” MVP awards, said Mike Korn, a trading content analyst for PointsBet. “Ultimately, Jokić was able to lead his team in all categories and had even better numbers than his MVP from last year.”

Like Embiid, Jokić also closed with monster games following ESPN’s March poll, averaging 37.8 points, 16.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists as Denver went 3-2 and grabbed the Western Conference’s No. 6 seed.

Embiid averaged 37.7 points, 14.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists following the poll. The Sixers went 4-2 in that span and ended up being the No. 4 seed in the East. Embiid became the first center to win the NBA scoring title since Shaquille O’Neal 22 years ago.

“I love Embiid, but I don’t think he wins,” said Mitch Moss, host of VSIN’s popular morning program Follow the Money.

“I bet Embiid at 12-1 on Jan. 19, but hedged with Jokić at +140 after the last MVP straw poll came out. I thought Embiid was the winner until the voters flipped. Plus, the season Jokić put together is too hard to ignore.”

The Sixers were 6-8 in games Embiid missed, while Denver was 2-6 without Jokić.

» READ MORE: Opinion If this is James Harden’s new normal, the Sixers are an NBA Finals long shot

“Denver’s numbers with him on the floor compared to when he’s off are startling,” Moss continued. “They’re a G-League team [without him]. Tyrese Maxey, James Harden and Tobias Harris would easily be the second-, third- and fourth-best players on the Nuggets.”

Nikola Jokić, Denver: 27.1 pts. (6th in NBA), 13.8 reb. (2nd), 7.9 ast. (8th), 58.3 FG% (8th), 33.5 min. (t-34th). Team was 46-28 with him, 2-6 without him,

Joel Embiid, Sixers: 30.6 pts. (1st), 11.7 reb. (5th), 4.2 ast. (t-45th), 33.8 min. (t-28th). Team was 45-23 with him, 6-8 without him.

The Sixers opened as 4-point favorites for Saturday’s Game 1 against the visiting Raptors. The total was 217.5. Toronto won three of four meetings this season, including both in South Philly.

» READ MORE: Sixers’ Matisse Thybulle explains why he’s unvaccinated: ‘I considered all avenues’

NBA: Embiid was 40-1 in late November to win the scoring title. DraftKings wrote a $100 play that cashed for 4-grand.

MLB: File this away -- BetMGM’s most tickets for NL rookie of the year are on Cubs’ rightfielder Seiya Suzuki, who was a little less than 3-1 as of Monday. In the AL, Detroit first baseman Spencer Torkelson is the betting favorite. He was at 5-1 on Monday. Chicago’s Luis Robert (18-1) and the Phillies Bryce Harper (9-1) were the top picks for AL/NL MVP, respectively.

Golf: Scottie Scheffler is 12-1 to win next month’s PGA Championship at Southern Hills in Tulsa (May 19-22). FanDuel paid out $2.7 million on a $150,000 play on Scheffler before the Masters at 18-1.

MLB: BetMGM paid $265,272.69 on a 14-leg baseball parlay Saturday. All 14 selections were on under the run total. The one game not on the bettor’s card was Cubs-Brewers, which was the only contest that went over that day..

Using preseason projected win totals, the biggest overachiever in the NBA this season was the Cleveland, whose preseason line was 27.5 wins, but won 44. They went over their win total on Jan. 22. Would have been nice to have that ticket.

Other overachievers include Memphis (42.5 preseason, 56 wins), Phoenix (50.5 preseason, 64 wins), and Minnesota (33.5 preseason, 46 wins).

Oddsmakers were right on the number with the Sixers. Their line was 50.5. Sunday’s win over Detroit closed their record at 51-31.

The most overrated team, not surprisingly, was the Lakers. LA’s number was 51.5, which is almost how many they LOST in going 33-49.

Other teams who dogged it this season include Indiana (42.5 preseason, 25 wins), Portland (44.5 preseason, 27 wins) and Brooklyn (55.5 preseason, 44 wins).

Sportsbooks, especially in Nevada, cleaned up on the clumsy Lakers as bettors kept firing throughout the season. Their dysfunction also provided one of the best quotes of 2022.

“Our public has been hammering the Lakers all year long, and they continue to bet them,” Ed Salmons, VP of risk management at Westgate, said in mid-March. “They must not watch Lakers’ games.”