Sixers might not be bad enough to tank effectively. If healthy, the best bet is to go all-in for a playoff push.
If the Sixers don’t fall within the first six selections in May’s NBA draft lottery, they would lose their first-round pick in the NBA draft, which is expected to be a strong class.
CHICAGO — This certainly wasn’t an option.
Not that the 76ers had many in October, when the only objective was to get healthy by April to make a strong push for an NBA title.
But now there’s another scenario: Tank?
There’s a case to be made for the Sixers merrily drifting toward a nice, comfy spot in the draft, thanks to all of their injuries.
The depleted squad’s record of 17-27 after Saturday’s 109-97 victory over the Chicago Bulls at the United Center was the NBA’s eighth-worst mark. Typically, the 14 teams that miss out on the playoffs are eligible for the lottery.
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However, the Sixers will lose their first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder in June’s NBA draft if it does not fall within the first six selections in May’s NBA draft lottery.
And that’s where things become dicey for the Sixers in what is expected to be one of the strongest drafts in recent years. By maintaining the eighth-worst record by season’s end, they would only have a 26.2% chance of keeping the pick.
Their chances will improve to 31.9%, 45.8% and 63.9% by finishing with the seventh-, sixth- and fifth-worst record, respectively. To feel really good about keeping their pick, the Sixers would have to finish with the worst (100%), second- (100%), third- (92.9%), and fourth-worst mark (81%).
But bottoming out for one of those spots could be close to impossible for the Sixers.
The Washington Wizards have the NBA’s worst record (6-38) while riding a 13-game losing streak. In all-out tank mode, they’re expected to finish no higher than the third worst. The Utah Jazz are also working hard to remain there. The Jazz took the second-worst record (10-33) and a five-game losing streak.
The New Orleans Pelicans, Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors, Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers are the other teams with worse records than the Sixers.
Like Philly, the Pelicans (12-34) have been battling injuries. But they recently found a groove, winning four straight before losing to the Grizzlies on Friday and Hornets on Saturday. Charlotte (12-30) is expected to slide now that standout shooting guard Brandon Miller (wrist) is sidelined for the remainder of the season.
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The Raptors (13-32) had the fifth-worst record, followed by the Nets (14-32). But don’t be surprised if Brooklyn, which is expected to trade Cam Johnson before the Feb. 6 deadline, drops below Toronto. The Nets have already traded away two of their best assets in Dennis Schröder (to the Golden State Warriors) and Dorian Finney-Smith (to the Los Angeles Lakers).
And don’t be surprised if the Blazers (17-28),continue to rack up losses by season’s end.
While the Sixers are currently in a tough stretch, their remaining 38-game schedule is the league’s fifth-easiest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon.
That’s why they aren’t guaranteed to keep their first-rounder. And without a second-rounder, they could go without making a draft selection for the second time in three years.
Unless something changes, the Sixers’ best option is to get healthy and see how things play out.
The top six finishers in the Eastern and Western Conference automatically qualify for the playoffs. The teams seeded Nos. 7 through No. 10 will compete for their respective conference’s final two postseason berths in the Play-In Tournament. The Sixers are 11th in the East, one game behind the 10th-place Bulls (19-27).
While this season has been a disappointment, two of Philly’s marquee victories have come against the East’s first-place Cleveland Cavaliers and second-place Boston Celtics. The Sixers defeated the Cavs, 132-129, on Friday at the Wells Fargo Center without 2023 league MVP Joel Embiid and five other players. And in one of the 10 games in which the seven-time All-Star teamed up with co-All-Stars Tyrese Maxey and Paul George, Philly defeated the Celtics, 115-111, on Christmas Day in Boston.
The Sixers are 7-3 in games Embiid, Maxey, and George all started and 6-1 in contests they all completed.
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Saturday marked the 31st game Embiid missed this season due to injuries and a three-game suspension. He wasn’t alone, as the Sixers also were without Andre Drummond, Caleb Martin, and KJ Martin. And that doesn’t include Jared McCain, who’s sidelined for the remainder of the season after last month’s left knee surgery.
If healthy, Embiid and the Sixers will be a less-than-ideal first-round matchup for the Cavs (36-9) and Celtics (32-14). They’ve already proved that they can beat those elite teams. And they would have as great a chance to win the title as any team with a first-round upset.
They could try to follow the path of the 2022-23 Miami Heat. Miami secured the East’s No. 8 seed via the Play-In tourney. Like the Sixers, the Heat were dealing with injuries throughout the regular season. Finally healthy, they advanced to the NBA Finals, losing to the Denver Nuggets.
The Sixers have another injury to deal with. George really banged up his left pinky finger when he jammed it in the first half of Saturday’s victory. The forward, who missed the second half, will have an MRI on Sunday.
Again, if the Sixers can get healthy, this would be a better option than tanking for a pick they’ll have a slim chance to keep.