Don’t know Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper? Here’s why Rutgers’ draft prospects should have Sixers fans’ attention.
Harper and Bailey played No. 8 Michigan State on Saturday at Madison Square Garden. If the Sixers keep their top-six protected draft pick, they could be in range to be drafted.
NEW YORK — Ace Bailey hit a tough turnaround jumper with two defenders crowding him in the corner, then pounded his chest in celebration. A few minutes later, Dylan Harper took a steal to the opposite end, his pull-up jumper bouncing in to prompt a Michigan State timeout in the first half’s waning minutes.
Rutgers’ top-five NBA draft prospects did not get their full showcase at Madison Square Garden because of Harper’s lingering sprained ankle that prevented the guard from starting. He was limited to six points in 13 minutes. But the Scarlet Knights’ high-profile matchup against the eighth-ranked Spartans drew a national television audience with former Villanova coach Jay Wright on the call and former NBA All-Star Dwight Howard in a courtside seat. Bailey finished with 18 points on 4-for-17 shooting, nine rebounds, and two steals in Rutgers’ 81-74 loss.
Such games are also becoming relevant to 76ers followers, internally and externally. Back-to-back wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls aside, the Sixers’ 17-27 record was the NBA’s eighth-worst entering Sunday. If the Sixers can’t turn a dreadful first half of the regular season into a playoff push and end up keeping their lottery draft pick, Harper and Bailey are projected to be within their selection range. The catch: A past trade will send the pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it lands outside the top six.
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Should the Sixers’ place in the pecking order hold until April, they would have a 26.2% chance of keeping their pick. As a fun exercise, 20 spins by The Inquirer on the Tankathon website’s draft lottery simulator on Saturday night gave the Sixers their pick just three times — though the first try landed on the No. 2 spot. To increase those odds during the next two-plus months, they would need to lose more games than the openly tanking Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors, Brooklyn Nets, and Portland Trail Blazers.
Harper, a 6-foot-6 guard who sits just behind consensus top prospect Cooper Flagg in most mock drafts, “did everything possible” to try to play Saturday, Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell said. Harper did not score until hitting two free throws with about five minutes remaining in the first half. And he checked out for good less than two minutes after the break, following an underhand lob attempt in transition that went awry.
When healthy, Harper is perhaps most lauded for his basketball IQ, which legendary Michigan State coach Tom Izzo compared on Saturday to a quarterback. Though Harper is not supremely athletic, he creates opportunities for himself and others by controlling the pace with the ball, reminiscent of Jalen Brunson, the New York Knicks’ All-Star and former Villanova standout, or Detroit Pistons rising star Cade Cunningham. Harper also has an NBA pedigree, as the son of three-time Chicago Bulls champion Ron Harper and brother of the Detroit Pistons’ Ron Harper Jr.
“Harper stirs the drink,” said Izzo, who has coached — and coached against — his share of elite NBA prospects during his three decades at Michigan State. “… We put a lot into how we were covering ball screens with him. As much as [his injury] was a break for us, I felt bad, because he seems like a great kid.”
Bailey, meanwhile, is a 6-10 forward who is ranked third in most mock drafts yet more polarizing to evaluators. His enticing length — “He’s skinny, but he doesn’t play skinny,” Izzo said — is reminiscent of a college-aged Kevin Durant or Michael Porter Jr. As Rutgers attempted a late comeback Saturday, Bailey leaped in the air to intercept the ball, but then turned it over on the other end. Izzo also praised Bailey’s first step.
Yet Bailey’s offensive efficiency (or shot-selection) issues — he’s connecting on 46.9% of his attempts from the floor, including 39.3% from three-point range, and 64.9% of his free throws — were apparent against the Spartans. He drilled an early pull-up three-pointer from the right wing that ignited the crowd but airballed another. There were a couple of moments when he could not finish in traffic under the basket, though once he stuck with it and saved the ball from going out of bounds to a teammate, who drew the foul. One of his made shots came with five seconds to play, the outcome already decided.
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One NBA source told The Inquirer on Friday that a primary reason Bailey remains near the top of draft boards is because he started there as the second-rated recruit in the 2024 class, according to 247 Sports. Another source who evaluates prospects said Saturday that Bailey’s performance was an appropriate representation of his season.
When asked what he has learned from going through the Big Ten slate, which still includes matchups against No. 21 Michigan (twice), Illinois, Oregon, and Purdue, Bailey mentioned taking better care of his body and improving at studying film, “because we didn’t get a lot of it in high school.”
“Just the little stuff,” Bailey said. “The small stuff that you think is not important, but that’s very important to the game.”
Other prospects currently in that top-six range include Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe, Illinois guard Kasparas Jakučionis, BYU guard Egor Demin, Texas wing Tre Johnson, and French guard Nolan Traoré. Shifting is bound to happen between now and the late-June draft, with the NCAA Tournament, NBA scouting combine, and individual workouts serving as other notable checkpoints.
This Sixers front office has drafted well in recent years. It selected All-Star point guard Tyrese Maxey at No. 21 in 2020 and, at No. 16 last summer, it took Jared McCain, who was an early NBA Rookie of the Year front-runner before season-ending meniscus surgery last month. But those are examples of players who outperformed their draft positioning, rather than an organization nailing a high pick.
The Process era illustrates that it can be tricky. Top-five selections brought in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, who was an All-Star and an NBA Defensive Player of the Year contender before his trade demand and health issues all but derailed his career. But they also brought the Sixers Markelle Fultz and Jahlil Okafor. And consider that when the Golden State Warriors got the No. 2 pick after the 2019-20 season when Stephen Curry broke his hand, they took James Wiseman over LaMelo Ball, who went third.
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It remains stunning that the Sixers even are in contention to keep this first-round pick, given that this injury-riddled 2024-25 season began with championship aspirations. Saturday’s victory in Chicago pulled them within one game of the 10th spot in the Eastern Conference, which is the final play-in spot. But Embiid’s short- and long-term health status remains uncertain, after he missed his 11th consecutive game Saturday with knee swelling. The Feb. 6 trade deadline also will help reveal how the Sixers will tackle the rest of this season.
But it is fair to keep an eye on the draft prospects who played at the Mecca on Saturday. Because if a disappointing regular season turns into lottery luck, Harper and Bailey could be on the board when the Sixers are on the clock.