A closer look at the buzzer-beaten Sixers’ struggles in closing seconds

It’s getting close to look-in-the-mirror time for the Sixers. At some point, the team you are is the team you are going to be. That’s doubly true if the team you are is the team you always have been.

Who are the Sixers? After Monday night’s 101-99 loss to the Heat, they are a team that is 1-5 against the three other teams that have dominated the East in recent years. They are a team that is 7-8 against the conference’s top seven seeds, and 4-8 if you take out the dysfunctional Nets. They are a team that has now lost home games to the Celtics, Bucks, and Heat.

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In short, they are a team that you do not expect to succeed in the types of situations that more often than not separate the elite from the something-less-than-that. Up by one with 101 seconds left. Down by two with eight seconds left. Makes no difference if it is home or away. But this one was at home.

When people say they sense that something is missing with this team, here is what they mean. This season, the Sixers have had 14 shot attempts to tie or take the lead in the last 24 seconds of a game. They’ve converted on only four of them. They are 3-for-10 when trailing by a bucket or less, and 1-for-4 in tie games.

That’s better than they have been. It’s better than their opponents have been (4-for-19). But it’s worse than the Celtics (7-for-19), and the Bucks (5-for-12), and the Heat (9-for-21). Combined, that’s a 40% conversion percentage on decisive shots. The difference between that and the Sixers’ 28% is a win-and-a-half.

Things get marginally better when you factor in trips to the foul line, but only marginally. The Sixers are 2-for-2 when given a chance to tie or take the lead from the foul line in the last 24 seconds. Those other three teams are 5-for-6.

This may sound like nitpicking, and it is. But the nits are what differentiates the good teams from each other. The sample size is small enough that we shouldn’t draw definitive conclusions. That said, they are an interesting prism through which to view the team. They were the difference Monday night. Miami had a player who could take the ball in his hands, get himself to any spot on the court, and get a good shot from that spot. Jimmy Butler did it by making a fantastic go-ahead layup with 1:28 remaining and then getting himself to the foul line with eight seconds left and the Heat up one. The Sixers? They did not score a field goal in the last three minutes.

Is it the coaching, or is the personnel, or is it some combination of both? Whatever the case, the important thing is that the question is there to be asked. Again.

The Sixers are a unique team in that their best player is a big man who is at his best doing big-man things. For Joel Embiid to get the last shot, somebody else usually has to touch the ball first. That’s not always optimal in situations where time is at a premium. Embiid is not a quick-trigger player. He is 7-for-36 in his career on shots to tie or take the lead at the end of a game. That’s not a criticism. It’s just the nature of the game.

Besides, Embiid is 3-for-4 in such opportunities this season. The rest of the team is 1-for-10. James Harden is now 0-for-5.

The ability to get off a quality shot on deadline is a skill. It’s not necessarily one that is reflective of a player’s overall ability. D’Angelo Russell is 9-for-18 on game-deciding buckets over the last three seasons. Trae Young is 5-for-11. Neither is an all-world player. But they have that one tool in their skillset. The Sixers’ crunch time failures are at least partially the result of the fact that their best player is a center.

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More specifically, the problem is that their best player is both a center and their only reliable option.

Compare that to the Celtics. An opportunistic choice, I know. Fact is, Jayson Tatum leads the NBA in tying/go-ahead buckets over the last three seasons. Not only that, but Jaylen Brown ranks in the top 10. Together, the duo has hit 17 game-tying or go-ahead shots in the last 24 seconds. This, in 42 attempts.

During that same stretch, the Sixers as a team have combined to hit 12 game-tying or game-winning buckets. Again, that’s the whole team. In 50 attempts.

Let’s put those numbers side-by-side and think about what they mean.

That’s five additional games that the Celtics either went from losing to not-losing or not-winning to winning in three seasons. More, really. If the Sixers had hit 41% of their 50 shots, they’d have tied or taken the lead in eight additional games.

Outside of those three stars, the two teams are just about the same. The Celtics are a combined 5-for-29 when somebody other than Tatum/Brown takes the shot. The Sixers are 6-for-29 when somebody other than Embiid does it.

Again, that isn’t a criticism of Embiid. It’s just a fact of life.

For an example of how things can go differently, look at the Bucks. They’re another team with an all-world player who is something less than your prototypical Big Shot Bob. Unlike the Sixers, they do not rely on that player to take their big shots. Over the last three years, Giannis Antetokounmpo has attempted just seven of the Bucks’ 36 tying or go-ahead shots over the last three seasons. He has made only two of those shots.

Yet, the rest of the Bucks have been pretty darn good in those last-second situations: 14-for-36, or 39%.

Another split…

The point of all this isn’t to say that the Sixers need to be better at the buzzer. The point is that their end-of-game possessions are an example of their problem at large. Ostensibly, they are a team with two superstars, but neither of those superstars is the kind of guy that can get himself to any spot on the court and consistently score from there. Embiid doesn’t have the handle. Harden doesn’t have the finishing ability (at least, not anymore). It’s why so many of their offensive possessions can look so difficult.

In the end, the coach is the guy who has to figure it out. The formula isn’t changing, at least not for the rest of this season.

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