There will be no winners in Sixers-Nets trade if James Harden leaves this summer without an NBA title

MIAMI — Who will ultimately win the James Harden and Ben Simmons trade?

There’s a belief around the NBA that Harden will opt out of his $35.6 million player option with the 76ers and head back to the Houston Rockets in free agency. There’s also a belief that the Sixers won’t advance beyond the second round of the upcoming playoffs.

In last season’s big trade deal, the Sixers packaged two first-round picks along with Simmons, Seth Curry and Andre Drummond to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Harden and Paul Millsap on Feb. 10, 2022. One of the first-round picks was deferred to this summer’s NBA draft. The other is a 2027 Top 8 protected pick.

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At the moment, the Sixers are winning the trade.

Harden is playing well for a squad that improved to 40-21 after Wednesday’s 119-96 victory over the Miami Heat at Miami-Dade Arena. The Sixers are in third place in the Eastern Conference with Harden and six-time All-Star center Joel Embiid forming one of the league’s elite tandems.

Meanwhile, Simmons hasn’t played a lot in Brooklyn. And when he has, he’s been a disaster.

The 6-foot-10 guard/forward refused to play for the Sixers last season, sitting out the entire year before being traded. Then a back injury prevented him from playing in Brooklyn following the trade.

Simmons has played in 42 games this season. The three-time All-Star is averaging career lows in points (6.9), rebounds (6.3), assists (6.1), steals (1.3) and minutes played (26.3). He’s also shooting a career-low 43.9% from the foul line. And Simmons is expected to be out of the Nets’ rotations even after he returns from a current injury absence because of a sore left knee.

Even though Simmons has been a calamity, the Nets still got two first-round picks out of the deal.

But if Harden walks, the Sixers will have nothing to show for it.

It’s kind of like going to the blackjack table at a casino, and laying $50 down. You keep winning and winning before doubling down on your money. You’re up $250 before losing it all. At that point it doesn’t matter how much money you had. The reality is you walked away with nothing.

The Sixers would face a similar scenario if Harden leaves this season without helping them win an NBA title.

The team would be criticized for packaging two first-round picks, among other things, for a player that bolted after 1 ½ seasons.

But acquiring Harden was more of a win-now move for the Sixers. So they rolled the dice with the belief that he could help them win a championship. While there were other options, Harden was the player they had targeted for some time.

As a result, they got what they believed was the best package in exchange for a guy that forced his way out of Philadelphia. Harden now averages 21.6 points, a league-best 10.6 assists, and 1.2 steals.

» READ MORE: Jimmy Butler continues to show the Sixers why trading him to the Miami Heat was a mistake

And while it appears increasingly unlikely, there’s still a chance Harden helps the Sixers win a title this season.

Right now, the first-place Milwaukee Bucks and second-place Boston Celtics appear to be a two-team race to come out of the East. But with 21 games remaining in the regular season, the Sixers could go on a run. The Bucks (45-17) and/or the Celtics (45-18) could also suffer a championship-altering rinjury to a star player that would increase the Sixers’ chances.

So things could work out even if Harden was a 1½ season rental and the Sixers come away with hardware.

But for now, the expectation is that he will test free agency this summer.

The latest news is the Rockets are expected to aggressively pursue Harden this summer after he turns down his $35.6 million player option, according to The Athletic. The report says Harden is considering the move.

And why wouldn’t he desire to go back to Houston?

He played a little more than eight seasons in Houston before forcing a trade to the Brooklyn Nets on Jan. 13, 2021. Harden, one of the Rockets’ all-time best players, won the 2018 NBA MVP award and three scoring titles with Houston.

He lives in the city during the offseason. Some of his family members, including his mother, live there year-round. Harden also has plenty of business ventures in Houston. And the Rockets will have a lot of cap space this summer. So Harden would be in line to receive a lucrative contract. That said, Harden might not be the right fit with the Rockets’ current young core.

Harden’s reported desire for a change of scenery comes after he opted out of a $47.4 million player option last summer to re-sign with the Sixers. He’s making $33 million this season. The pay cut Harden accepted created enough cap space to sign his former teammates and friends, P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr., and Montrezl Harrell in free agency.

Harden’s acquisition and a summer of free-agency spending made it championship or bust in Philly.

Meanwhile, at the start of the season, the belief in Brooklyn was that Simmons was set up for greatness playing alongside elite scorers Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.

All he would need to do was defend and pass the ball. Durant and Irving would do the rest. That, some thought, would put Brooklyn in a great position to win multiple NBA titles.

But after he requested a trade, the Nets sent Irving to the Dallas Mavericks last month. The team also traded Durant to the Phoenix Suns. So instead of fielding a basketball dynasty, the Nets are left with the struggling and untradeable Simmons on a middle-of-the-pack team.

» READ MORE: Shame on the Sixers for not following the script in pressure-packed moments

Brooklyn, however, was able to acquire Spencer Dinwiddle, Dorian Finney-Smith, a 2029 first-round pick, 2027 and 2029 second-rounders, and trade exceptions from Dallas in exchange for the package that included Irving. Meanwhile, Phoenix sent them Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, four first-round picks, and a 2028 pick swap for Durant and T.J. Warren. Brooklyn received unprotected picks in 2023, 2025, 2027, and 2029. The Nets moved Crowder to the Bucks.

Brooklyn has the assets needed to acquire another perennial All-Star in a future trade. But one has to wonder if Irving and Durant would have set all of this in motion if Simmons had played up to his potential.

So right now, the Sixers are winning the trade. But if they don’t win the championship and Harden leaves, both teams lose.