Will James Harden return to Philly? His decision will define the Sixers’ approach to NBA free agency

Doc Rivers, a future Hall of Fame coach, is gone. Nick Nurse, a coach known for successful out-of-the-box tactics, is here.

And the sense that James Harden will re-sign with the 76ers and become Nurse’s floor leader instead of heading back to the Houston Rockets for a second stint is gaining momentum.

Harden’s introductory meeting with Nurse is reportedly among the reasons for the change. The point guard came away “intrigued by Nurse’s version” of the Sixers, according to Marc Stein of The Stein Line.

Harden is expected to opt out of his $35.6 million deal with the Sixers for next season before Thursday’s deadline and become a free agent on Friday.

Sixers teammates Georges Niang, Jalen McDaniels, Shake Milton, Montrezl Harrell, and Paul Reed will join him on the free-agent market. As a restricted free agent, Reed can sign an offer sheet beginning on July 6 with any team. The Sixers can retain him by matching the terms of that offer.

However, Harden’s uncertain future in Philadelphia is one of the NBA’s leading story lines.

Harden could receive a maximum salary of around $210 million over four years with the Sixers, who have his Bird rights. He could make up to $201.7 million with another team.

But with Harden at 33 years old and prone to postseason struggles, it’s unlikely that any team would want to make him a max commitment for four years.

The Sixers are not willing to hinder the team’s short- or long-term future by overpaying for Harden. However, re-signing him will be a priority. They know not doing so would put them in a tough spot.

He led the NBA in assists at 10.7 per game this past season, and was by far the Sixers’ best ball handler and facilitator. With not a lot of available cap space should Harden leave, they would be unable to replace him adequately in free agency.

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Meanwhile, the Rockets are projected to have $64.3 million in available cap space.

Harden’s desire to return to Houston, the love Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta still has for him, and the available cap space had NBA executives and league sources convinced last month that both sides would reunite.

But in recent weeks, sources have said the Sixers are more optimistic that he’ll re-sign. Even though Harden is beloved in Houston, league sources say some within the organization believe they could make better use of their cap space.

League sources also said some within the Rockets organization are interested in signing soon-to-be free-agent point guard Fred VanVleet of the Toronto Raptors to a lucrative contract. At this stage of his career, VanVleet, 29, is considered a better fit for the young and athletic Rockets. Memphis Grizzlies forward Dillon Brooks, another expected free agent, has been reported as another possible Rockets target.

Houston might be able to use its available cap space on VanVleet, Brooks, and a third player instead of giving a major chunk of it to Harden.

Under Rivers, the Sixers wanted Harden, a three-time scoring champion, to defer to league MVP Joel Embiid. And the Sixers were at their best with him as their facilitator. But Harden and Rivers didn’t see eye-to-eye, and the Sixers guard was reportedly looking for more offensive freedom in free agency.

Perhaps Nurse can find a way to balance the two for the 10-time All-Star.

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