2022-23 Sixers predictions: Top offseason signing, playoff expectations, and much more

The 76ers are prepping for a season with big expectations as Joel Embiid and James Harden enter their second season together, Tyrese Maxey enters the third year of his storied young career, and Doc Rivers approaches his third campaign as coach.

With so much at stake, The Inquirer gathered our beat writers and columnists to answer a few questions and provide predictions in advance of the 2022-23 NBA season.

Which offseason addition will pay off the most?

The popular (and probably correct) pick is P.J. Tucker, given his leadership, winning pedigree, and ability to defend multiple positions and drain corner three-pointers. But I will give some shine to De’Anthony Melton, who is exactly what the Sixers need in a sixth man. He is an active and instinctual defender who uses his long arms to disrupt passing lanes and grab rebounds. He can team up with Tyrese Maxey or James Harden in the backcourt and push the ball. And he can knock down shots from three-point range and from the elbow.

Who will be the most important player of the 2022-23 roster?

The obvious answer is Embiid, as we saw when he missed time with injuries and COVID-19 during the regular season and playoffs. He is expected to put up another MVP-caliber season and, as assistant coach Dave Joerger recently said, is the “straw that stirs the drink” for the Sixers offense because of his size and skill. But this season might hinge on James Harden’s effectiveness. He does not need to be the dominant scorer that he was with the Rockets, and he also does not need to rank second in the NBA in assists per game. Something in between is what Doc Rivers has clamored for, which would require his explosion and finishing at the rim to return.

» READ MORE: Sixers’ early games against Eastern Conference’s top teams will serve as a barometer

Where will the Sixers finish in the East standings?

Second, with 53-ish wins. On paper, the Sixers’ roster is noticeably better than last season’s. But is it better than Boston’s or Milwaukee’s? Today, I would still pick either of those teams in a playoff series against the Sixers, even with the drama and uncertainty surrounding Celtics coach Ime Udoka’s suspension. But I could also envision either of those teams easing a bit through the regular season, particularly because of the injuries to Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton and the Boston’s Robert Williams. The Sixers could have similar motivations, given Harden’s age and Embiid’s injury history. Yet they also have reason to finish first in order to (presumably) avoid needing to go through either the Bucks or Celtics to reach the Eastern Conference finals, and both to advance to the NBA Finals. So let’s split the difference, and project them to finish second.

How far will the Sixers advance in the postseason?

My logic above suggests that another second-round exit is coming for the Sixers. But I think it will all depend on the matchups along that path. I’d give the Sixers a solid chance at winning a competitive series against the Celtics — primarily because the they now have defenders more capable of countering Celtics wing stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and because we have zero idea how Boston interim coach Joe Mazzulla will fare on the playoff stage. If the Sixers draw the Bucks in the Eastern Conference semifinals, though, it’s really difficult to envision them winning a seven-game series. Too much Giannis Antetokounmpo. Too much experience.

Bonus: If not the Sixers, who will win the title?

Had Middleton not gotten hurt during last year’s playoffs, we might be talking about the Bucks going for a three-peat this season. I covered every game of the 2021 Finals, and watching that Milwaukee team operate on both ends of the floor — and Antetokounmpo literally soar into championship lore — was beyond impressive. And unlike the condensed 2021 offseason (with an Olympics), the Bucks enter this season with the benefit of rest. Golden State’s resurgence has been an incredible story, and Steph Curry’s leadership means Draymond Green’s punch of Jordan Poole could be all but forgotten by June. I’m also fascinated to see how the full-strength Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets look. But give me the Bucks.

Which offseason addition will pay off the most?

The addition of De’Anthony Melton will pay off the most. A tenacious defender, Melton gives coach Doc Rivers the option of pairing him with either James Harden or Tyrese Maxey, bringing perimeter toughness off the bench. The elite off-ball defender uses his 6-foot-9 wingspan to be disruptive in passing lanes and to grab rebounds. And he combined to shoot 38.7% on three-pointers over the past two seasons. He’s the three-and-D addition off the bench the Sixers needed.

Who will be the most important player on the 2022-23 roster?

The answer is Joel Embiid, and it isn’t even close. No matter how good Tyrese Maxey plays or how much better shape James Harden is in, the Sixers’ success depends on Embiid. The All-Star center has to remain healthy and continue to play at an MVP-caliber level for the Sixers to compete with the Eastern Conference’s elite squads.

» READ MORE: From Maxey madness to a revamped defense, here are 10 Sixers story lines

Where will the Sixers finish in the East standings?

The Sixers will finish third behind the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks in the conference standings with a 52-30 record. Harden should be commended for taking less money so president of basketball operations Daryl Morey could add toughness with free-agent acquisitions of P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr. and Montrezl Harrell. However, this roster still lacks a pure point guard and height at backup center. Boston and Milwaukee were better than the Sixers last season and both made roster upgrades in the offseason to championship-contending teams.

How far will the Sixers advance in the postseason?

The Sixers will suffer another second-round exit this season. While they’ve improved the roster, they just don’t have enough to contend with Boston or Milwaukee in a seven-game series.

In the playoffs, teams are going to try to neutralize Embiid and Maxey and force Harden to shoot while cutting off his passing lanes. If he can make shots, they may have a chance. However, this roster must depend on too many players known for postseason struggles to make a deep run.

Bonus: If not the Sixers, who will win the title?

The Golden State Warriors will overcome the Draymond Green and Jordan Poole drama and win their second straight and fifth NBA title in nine seasons. Poole is blossoming into a star on a team that has three future Hall of Famers in Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Green. With James Wiseman back from injury, Golden State has arguably the league’s most loaded roster and a blend of standout players and accomplished veterans.

Which offseason addition will pay off the most?

If De’Anthony Melton continues his arc, he should provide the scoring range and depth the Sixers lost when they traded Seth Curry to the Nets in the Ben Simmons deal that netted James Harden. P.J. Tucker adds immeasurable toughness and versatile defense. Montrezl Harrell bolsters a limited frontcourt. But a 37-year-old who’s averaged 6.0 points per game and a 6-foot-7 backup center don’t have the same ceiling as a 24-year-old swing guard who’s hit 38.8% of his three-pointers who will be on the floor with Joel Embiid and either Harden or Tyrese Maxey.

Who will be the most important player on the 2022-23 roster?

It depends on how you define “important.” The player they can least afford to lose, of course, is Joel Embiid. He’s been the real MVP the past two seasons even though he finished second in the voting both times. The player they can least afford to fall short of his potential, though, is James Harden. Luka Dončić of the Mavericks was the only player who averaged more time of possession than Harden’s 9.2 minutes per game. Harden’s win shares led the league in five of the six seasons before 2020-21, and they’ve been 7.0 and 7.6 in the two seasons since. Granted, he played with two new teams and battled injury, but regardless, the Beard needs to get back into double-digit win shares in order for the Sixers to matter this year.

» READ MORE: James Harden taking lead role in second season with the Sixers — on and off the court

Where will the Sixers finish in the East standings?

The Sixers won’t care about regular-season wins. They need to protect Embiid, a fragile giant who’s never played more than 68 games, and P.J. Tucker, who’s 37. They need to monitor Harden, who’s 33 going on 40. And they need to get real minutes for developing players like Paul Reed and De’Anthony Melton. That means lots of lineups, inconsistent chemistry, and more losses than you’d probably like. They took the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference last season with 51 wins. That’s a likely number, and completely acceptable.

How far will the Sixers advance in the postseason?

Not enough is made of the absence of Khris Middleton from the Bucks’ playoff roster after he injured his knee in the second game of the first round. The Bucks still took the Celtics to seven games in the second round. Middleton will miss the start of the season with a wrist injury. Why does this matter to the Sixers? Because they’ll be the most complete team in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Celtics will be a messy mirage, and the Heat is cooked, and the Nets have Ben Simmons, so Embiid will take the Sixers to the Eastern Conference finals ... where the most complete player in the NBA, Giannis Antetokounmpo, will be waiting, Batman with his Robin, to win his second title in three years, and probably his second of five before he’s done.

Bonus: If not the Sixers, who will win the title?

Didn’t need the “If not.” Not with the Greek Freak in Milwaukee and Steph back on top in San Francisco. Any thought that the Sixers would have a prayer of beating a team with a healthy Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins is simply foolish. Frankly, they won’t break a postseason sweat until they meet the Bucks. By the end of the playoffs the biggest legacy question will be: Can 32-year-old point guard Jrue Holiday, the most underrated player of his generation — the Mo Cheeks of the Millennials — make it to the Hall of Fame with only one All-Star appearance in his first 13 seasons? Because it’s going to be tough to keep a five-time NBA champion point guard out of the Hall.

Which offseason addition will pay off the most?

The question assumes that all the Sixers’ offseason acquisitions will benefit them to one degree or another, and there’s no guarantee of that. So let’s put it this way: The Sixers signed P.J. Tucker, who is 37, to a three-year, $33-million contract for his intangibles and ability to hit corner three-pointers. If his presence doesn’t make a big difference on this team, none of the other additions will matter much.

Who will be the most important player on the 2022-23 roster?

Joel Embiid is the best player on the roster, and Tyrese Maxey might be the most exciting. But if James Harden doesn’t recapture his old scoring touch and doesn’t adjust to being a supporting superstar to Embiid — a playmaker, a pick-and-roll collaborator — the Sixers’ all-in bet on him doesn’t stand a chance of paying off.

» READ MORE: Doc Rivers’ Philly sports fandom, Danuel House Jr.’s 3-point celebration and more Sixers notes

Where will the Sixers finish in the East standings?

The Sixers got deeper and tougher, and when you look around the rest of the conference, it’s difficult to make a case that any team improved as much as they did. The Celtics lost their coach and are dealing with the fallout of a mysterious scandal. The Heat are another year older. The Nets have Ben Simmons. The Sixers should be the best regular-season team in the East this season and win at least 55 games.

How far will the Sixers advance in the postseason?

Anything less than the franchise’s first NBA Finals appearance since 2001 should be regarded as a disappointment. Embiid, Harden, and Maxey make up a good enough nucleus to win a championship. Unfortunately, that’s exactly what the Sixers’ season will be — a disappointment — once they lose to the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference finals.

Bonus: If not the Sixers, who will win the title?

Giannis Antetokoumpo is everything a franchise could want in a centerpiece player: talented, tough, a good teammate, a leader. He’s the Tim Duncan of this era, and the Bucks are built well around him. They will win their second championship in three years, beating Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in the Finals.

Which offseason addition will pay off the most?

It’s hard to separate one from the whole. The biggest offseason addition was depth, which entails multiple players by definition. I’ll say this, though: De’Anthony Melton is the perfect role player for this team. He’s unlike any that the Sixers have had during Embiid’s tenure: a tough, tenacious defender who is an above-average shooter from three-point range and can handle the ball. Look at the other guys who have filled the role he’ll fill: Wilson Chandler, James Ennis, Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton. The one thing that each of them was best at, Melton is better at than all of them.

Who will be the most important player on the 2022-23 roster?

Embiid is the easy answer, and the correct one. Anybody who needed a reminder of this truth should think back to those first two games against the Heat. Doc Rivers looked like a coach without any answers because that is what he was. There were no answers for replacing Embiid. That shouldn’t be the case this year, which is why Rivers deserves some further ink. The Sixers have enough talent that he can afford to use the regular season first and foremost to get this team ready for the postseason. There may not be a lot that he can do to keep Embiid healthy, but he can make the team less reliant on the big guy, and also figure out how to get P.J. Tucker, Montrezl Harrell, and Paul Reed to make up for his absence if needed.

» READ MORE: What’s next for Charles Bassey? Charting the recently released Sixers center’s NBA journey

Where will the Sixers finish in the East standings?

They will enter the season as the third-best team in the Eastern Conference ahead of both the Heat and the Nets. They have the potential to finish as the best. People will realize early on how deep this team is now compared to where it was heading into last postseason. I think that sets their floor somewhere above 50 wins. The ceiling stretches into the 60s. It isn’t necessarily reliant on Harden, either. If Tyrese Maxey takes another leap forward, he has the potential to move into a No. 2 scoring role while allowing Harden to play to his strengths as a pure point guard.

How far will the Sixers advance in the postseason?

If they can finish with the No. 1 seed and avoid the Celtics or the Bucks in the second round, I don’t think there is another team in the East that can prevent them from finally advancing to the Eastern Conference finals. Beyond that, all you can honestly say is that they are better equipped for a Finals run than they have been at any point during the Embiid era.

Bonus: If not the Sixers, who will win the title?

The Clippers, assuming Kawhi Leonard is the same Kawhi Leonard we saw pre-injury.