Even if Paul George was the Sixers’ best option, that doesn’t mean it was a smart move
Will he be good enough to make the 76ers a contender in the East? Probably not.
Maybe it’s a Harden hangover.
Maybe it’s the fact that nearly $900 million worth of 30-something Phillies either are injured or are nursing injuries: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, and Taijuan Walker.
Maybe it’s just that I never thought Paul George was all that good.
Whatever it is, the fact that the Sixers gave him $212 million over four years at the overripe age of 34, with a track record of consistent injury, just doesn’t sit well.
I hope I’m wrong. Really. The sports books think so: The Sixers’ odds to win the championship went from around No. 6 to No. 2 in just a few hours Monday morning.
It would be nice to finally have a viable 1-A player alongside Joel Embiid, whose legacy is trending toward Charles Barkley’s unfulfilled expectations. Bless his heart, Tyrese Maxey is not a 1-A; until he becomes a much better defender and passer, he’ll always remain No. 2.
» READ MORE: Tyrese Maxey agrees to five-year, $204 million extension with Sixers
The best news: George is coming off his most productive and healthiest season in half a decade. That’s good-ish news, right?
The weird part: Nobody thinks this would be a good idea for, say, James Harden, who was an aged disappointment for the Sixers for a season-and-a-half. Harden is just a few months older than George, and has been markedly healthier.
Think about that.
This is, after all, the franchise that acquired post-prime Chris Webber, post-prime Dikembe Mutombo, and post-prime Derrick Coleman. Twice.
Meanwhile, up the road, the New York Knicks added rising star Mikal Bridges.
» READ MORE: Daryl Morey lands Paul George, the summer’s biggest star, in pivotal Sixers offseason
The Sixers think they HAD to do this. They think this is a better move than trading for, then extending, Pelicans gunner Brandon Ingram, an imperfect wing who’s more than seven years younger than George and who might be nowhere near his ceiling.
I see the logic.
I understand that George is the best player available.
I understand that George is the best bet among available free agents and likely trade options to complement Embiid, whose atrocious condition habits, injury history, and reckless play have made him old at 30 and will make him obsolete at 33.
I understand that George’s presence is the best insurance against Embiid’s inevitable injury absences since Jimmy Butler’s short, happy life in Philadelphia.
I also understand that now, at 34, George is not nearly as good as he once was.
The Sixers are gambling that he’ll be good enough to make them relevant.
» READ MORE: David Murphy: Paul George was the Sixers’ only hope for a title. The risk is big. The odds speak for themselves.
That he’ll be better than Tobias Harris was over the past five seasons. Harris left on a sour note, but his “win shares,” a dubious analytic (it can be like a participation trophy), were 30.8 in his five full seasons in Philly. George was at 23.2 in five full seasons with the Clippers.
Yes, I know, I watched Harris, and he wasn’t as good as George in those five seasons. But is George, combined with Embiid, Maxey, and re-signed Kelly Oubre Jr., better enough than Tobi to make the Sixers contenders in the Eastern Conference? Does he move the needle anywhere close to Boston or Milwaukee?
Probably not. All things considered, probably not.
But he moves it closer than anyone else would, at least for the next season or two. He maximizes the Sixers’ potential while Embiid is at what is likely to be a very brief peak.
That’s Daryl Morey’s only directive: Maximize Embiid.
Unfortunately, unless the Sixers can cash in on that peak, their financial future looks bleak.
They will owe George more than $50 million per year at the ages of 35 and 36.
Later this summer they can, and likely will, give Embiid a three-year, $193 million extension through the 2029-30 season. Including his $59 million player option in 2026-27, that means Embiid will average $63 million per season at the ages of 32, 33, 34, and 35.
Embiid has had seven surgeries since entering the NBA. He has bad knees. He’s never in shape.
There is no conceivable reality in which he’s worth $63 million in three or four years.
Similarly, George isn’t worth $50 million today. He might have been worth that in 2018-19 with the Thunder, the only season he averaged more than 25 points. He might have been worth that in 2013-14 with the Pacers, his coming-out year, before he broke his leg with Team USA that summer and missed all but six games of the next season.
But, in the past five seasons, perhaps no superstar has battled injury in a more varied and frequent manner than has George: shoulder, foot, ankle, hamstring, elbow.
He’s been the Joel Embiid of the West Coast.
And now, as they enter their NBA dotage, they’re expected to win together.
Join Inquirer beat reporters Gina Mizell and Keith Pompey, as they recap the flurry of initial signings for the Sixers and around the league at noon on Monday. Watch the stream here.