NBA predictions: Sixers suffer second-round exit, Tyrese Maxey flourishes, and James Harden is moved

For most of the preseason, Nick Nurse has talked about having six starters.

But what he blurted out in the middle of a media session was a clear indicator of the 76ers’ thinking moving forward.

“It might be down to five, yeah,” the Sixers coach said, laughing after repeating himself.

That realization has started to set in with James Harden remaining steadfast in his holdout. He was a no-show for Tuesday’s practice as the Sixers sat two days away from their season opener in Milwaukee against the Bucks.

Harden, Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker, Joel Embiid, and Tyrese Maxey made up last season’s initial starting lineup. However, De’Anthony Melton started 58 games because of injuries, load management, and fit.

“That part is probably a little clearer, like who’s going to start,” Nurse said. “I think there’s a couple of other areas like: Who’s playing in a game? How deep are we going in the rotation? And that means who are we leaving out?”

The Sixers think they have 12 players who have shown they’re good enough to crack the rotation.

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“That’s probably where we’re at right now versus the five or six starters,” Nurse said.

Harden was last with the team for an Oct. 15 practice. The Sixers said he’s away from the team for a personal matter. However, Harden is frustrated they haven’t progressed in trade talks with the Los Angeles Clippers, and he does not intend to be part of the same organization as Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey.

Despite that, the Sixers still expect to be one of the league’s best teams. And they’re determined to advance beyond the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

“I think we are good,” Harris said. “I think we are well prepared, every day coming in here working. We are a confident group. Coaches establishing us, and just to expect to win every single time we get on the floor.”

While they’re optimistic, the Sixers will miss Harden’s on-court presence. And it appears unlikely that they’ll have the breakthrough season they’re hoping for.

So here are predictions for the Sixers and the NBA for the 2023-24 season:

Record: 49-33. Expectations were high for the Sixers after hiring Nurse this offseason. They’ve also added toughness in Patrick Beverley and a go-to scorer off the bench in Kelly Oubre. However, they’re going to have a hard time beating the league’s upper echelon until the Harden ordeal is resolved. And they’ll only beat them if they get the All-Star talent they covet in return.

Where they will finish in the Eastern Conference: Fourth.

Where they will finish in the Atlantic Division: Second. The Sixers will finish second in the division for the third straight season and the fourth time in six years.

Playoff finish: Second round. They will lock up the East’s fourth seed behind the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, and Miami Heat. However, they will lose in five games to the Celtics in the conference semifinals, extending their streak of second-round exits to four straight. That could be different if Harris takes advantage of an expanded offensive role, the team adds an All-Star-caliber player in exchange for Harden, and/or Maxey plays at an All-Star level …

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Double-doubles for Joel Embiid: 59. As long as he stays healthy, this shouldn’t be a problem. He had 58 in 64 games in 2018-19. Back then, he didn’t have to focus on being the primary scorer with Jimmy Butler, JJ Redick, and others as support. The balanced attack enabled Embiid to be more of a well-rounded player. He should be just as versatile this season under Nurse’s free-flowing offense.

Games played for Embiid: 68. He shouldn’t have a problem with the league’s emphasis on doing away with load management. Sixty-eight is two more than he played last season and ties his career high from the 2021-22 season. Embiid and the team could be pleased with 68 games if his health doesn’t become an issue.

Thirty-point performances for Maxey: Nine. He’ll be a bigger part of the offense without Harden. Nurse wants him to take at least 20 shots per game. Maxey scored 30 or more points seven times last season as the team’s third option. He should surpass that with a larger role.

Will Harden get traded? Yes. There’s a chance Harden eventually will end up on the Clippers roster. It’s just a matter of which side gives in to the other’s trade demands. But the Clippers’ decision to hold off could set up the possibility of other teams courting Harden for a one-season rental.

Surprise team: Keep an eye on the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC has one of the best players in the league in Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander. Josh Giddey is a solid backcourt mate. Towering post player Chet Holmgren, the second pick in the 2022 draft, will play his rookie season after missing last year because of injury. Jalen Williams was a surprise rookie standout last season and is expected to take a step forward. And Lu Dort is a bulldog.

Rookie of the year: San Antonio Spurs power forward Victor Wembanyama. The 7-foot-4, 210-pounder, who was the first pick in June’s NBA draft, is an extremely versatile for a player his size. The 19-year-old is an elite rim protector with the skills of a guard. He has the size, talent, and explosiveness to make an immediate impact.

Defensive player of the year: Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley. The power forward finished third in the voting last season, behind Memphis Grizzlies power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. and Bucks center Brook Lopez. Mobley is not only a force, the third-year player is one of the league’s most versatile defenders. In addition to protecting the paint, he’s called upon to defend guards on the perimeter.

MVP: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić. He will, once again, put the Nuggets on his back and carry them deep in the playoffs and win his third MVP award in four seasons.

Coach of the year: Darvin Ham, Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers are primed to have a solid season after advancing to the Western Conference finals last season. They accomplished that after finishing with the conference’s seventh-best record and qualifying through the play-in tournament. They’ll be better this season, and Ham will be rewarded.

Atlantic: Celtics. Boston is loaded after the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, who will play alongside All-NBA wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Central: Bucks. Milwaukee had the NBA’s best record (58-24), then imploded in the first round last season. The Bucks added All-NBA point guard Damian Lillard and will be on a mission.

Southeast: Heat. It’s hard to say how competitive Miami will be during the regular season after losing key rotation pieces in free agency. However, the Heat will be the class of the NBA’s worst division.

Northwest: Nuggets. They have Jokić, and other teams do not. You know what you’re going to get from him, night in and night out, and that’s dominance.

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Pacific: Suns. Teams will have a tough time defending their three-headed scoring monster in Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal.

Southwest: Grizzlies. Memphis has the reigning defensive player of the year in Jackson, and Marcus Smart will be an asset on defense for a gritty team. Ja Morant also will look to reclaim his spot as one of the league’s elite players after returning from suspension.

Eastern Conference finals: Celtics over Bucks. This is a toss-up, but the Celtics can hit you with waves. Losing Robert Williams III was a setback, but they’ll be fine if Porizingis can stay healthy and Al Horford duplicates what he’s done the last couple of seasons.

Western Conference finals: Suns over Nuggets. At first glance, the Nuggets are the easy pick as defending champions. However, their depth is thinner after losing key rotation pieces in free agency. And they’ll have a tough time stopping all three of Phoenix’s elite scorers.

NBA Finals: Celtics over Suns. Let’s just say Boston’s depth wins out.